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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#2051 Posted : Tuesday, January 22, 2013 2:47:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KK today is moving large volume - 4.5M with VWAP currently @13.70/- with supply x2 demand. Full yr results around the corner.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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ChessMaster
#2052 Posted : Tuesday, January 22, 2013 3:07:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
mnandii wrote:
hisah wrote:


I don't like when Kestrel covers stocks I follow. They behave like Goldman Sachs i.e. do the exact opposite of what they reco.

Back in April 2010 - Buy reco, market price was 5.60/-
http://www.kestrelcapita...m_Update_April_2010.pdf


Back in June 2010 - Buy reco, market price was 5.50/-
http://www.kestrelcapita...om_Update_June_2010.pdf

Back in 2012 - Sell reco 2.75/-
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=17555

What do we note? In 2010, mpesa bank was ramped all the way to 6/- and topped out in Aug 2010. The largest exit volume was a day after the results announcement in May 2010. While in 2012 the sell reco was for accumulation as the rally swiftly raced to the current levels from 2.90 - 5.80. Yesterday the volume was higher and today we see price dipping. Like I have stated before the price is overextended and has some room to fall, near term 5.30 then 5.00.

Now we have a buy reco with 6.45/- as the target. Well I can guarantee you that indeed we are close to the top. The keyword here is guarantee.

The next rally should be the chance to sellout while the buy hype lasts.

In KE I keenly keep an eye on recos of especially Kestrel and SIB. While outside I keep an eye on MS and Citigroup. Also playing the opposite of their recos.

Happy hunting.


Something to ponder. Think


Always question the source of your information and their possible intent.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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hisah
#2053 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 8:02:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KE stocks were supposed to behave this way - http://www.bloomberg.com...arkets-on-election.html

I'm also in the middle of trying to see the correlation btwn ftse100 & nse ftse related indices. Will update once done.

For now ftse100 is at 50 week high despite a shambolic UK econ!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, January 23, 2013 8:03 AM | Reason: Not specified
kaifastus
#2054 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 2:33:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
guys are quite today,i wonder why...Hisah know dat your links are really useful.
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Kanjora1
#2055 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 2:35:11 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/7/2012
Posts: 39
Only 12 counters have gone green today...
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ChessMaster
#2056 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 2:48:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
risk management past progression?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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hisah
#2057 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 3:17:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Today EABL and mpesa bank are 1st and 2nd in turnover today with EABL @113M and mpesa bank @87M. EABL price closes in green while mpesa bank closes in red. EABL volume behaviour signals selling is ebbing and will soon resume the climb path. Quite interesting that mpesa bank price slide this week is on heavy volume, but the price has not cratered to levels near 5 - 5.30/-

BAT too is experiencing selling, but on light volume - VWAP @515/-

Of course after charging up like a mad bull (50% plus in a few trading days - senseless panic buying), Kengen is now soaking up the parabolic rally reality check on newton's law of gravity! VWAP @12.10/- Last week it was the top gainer, this week it'll be the top loser! The whiplash volatility smile I'm still waiting in the 10s region to grab my chips.

Again KK is seeing huge volumes today. I'm keenly watching this counter. This one and KQ will test investors nerves on massive losses. I dread for KQ - labour wars, elections, fuel costs, USDKES edging up etc - not a nice Q4 this one.

On tech readings, strangely RSI is still in overbought levels across all indices! However, a reset has happened to some indices that had ridiculous readings above 90 as the rally went berserk!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, January 23, 2013 3:19 PM | Reason: Not specified
ChessMaster
#2058 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 4:01:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
People will always want to know what's happening around them and will always want the option of choosing where to get the information from. Media and Communication technologies.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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ChessMaster
#2059 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 4:17:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Anyway,anyone up for talking agricultural shares?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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dunkang
#2060 Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 4:42:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
ChessMaster wrote:
Anyway,anyone up for talking agricultural shares?

Agric stocks in the market are:
- Williamson - Tea
- Sasini -Tea and Coffee
- Limuru - Tea
- REA Vipingo - sisal and horticulture
- (Mumias) - Sugar, energy, bottled water,
- (Kenya Orchads) - Jam, spices, honey etc
All tea and coffee stocks are having a bad season in terms of new taxation by GoK, low prices, USD-KES not like 2011.
REA Vipingo might be better IMO.
Mumias, though not agric strictly, is having it rough in sourcing for raw materials for its core business.
KOL, not an agric strictly, i even don't know where it gets its raw materials.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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