Listen,Jubilee will win the election but with few votes.So ile inatakikana hapa ni kutafuta amani peke yake.

Being president of Kenya is determined by numbers and Jubilee has the numbers. Whether from voter registration perspective or from population census (tribal arithmetic) the numbers point to a jubilee garnering more than Cord.

These pollsters have never explained their sampling methodology, are lazy and have their preferred candidate which tilts their figures. I will give an example, if the selected sample was wazua, then you expect Raila will be polling 80% compared to Uhuru 20%. However, is wazua truly representative of Kenya. A big NO!

To a normal human being like myself: 1+1 = 2
To a Kenyan pollster: 1+1 = 11

Has there been any poll so far based on iebc register? The central province numbers(turnout) were almost unbelievable-was thinking they may have been undercounted in 2009 census. Woe to cord if those numbers turnout on march5.

Solid blocks matter alot and just compare: kiambu alone is 65% of entire Raila's only assured block of Luonyanza. Outside ethnic blocks no one candidate will get over 70%.

I really really wonder with some Wazuans....

Most of us reside in Nairobi. Have you asked your Luhyia friends who they will be voting for? For those of you who have.. be honest and tell us what they said. This time round RAO is getting 80% vote from this community.

I was in western in november and again last month. Both times I stayed for two weeks and travelled to almost all corners. Guys there are sooo mad at MDVD. They look at His moves as blunder after blunder. To them He is an embarasment. They cant understand why he had to wait untill the Final Year to bolt out on His own. This at a time when They had all but settled for ODM. They have waited for Him to convince them Why Him/UDF and Not RAO/ODM. nobody has heard anything worthwhile. That saga of Jubillee instead of earning him sympathy votes only made the Guys more mad at Him that He does not have a fight in Him. I came back on Monday. The latest going on there is.. a vote for MDVD is a vote for Uhuru. (A vote to RAO denied). A mention of MDVD or UDF results in laughter! (Most places not all) Rao is running with western 80%. its no swing vote this time. you think I am lying... go to western and talk to people you will be shocked. Its going to be a huge embarrasment for MDVD unless a miracle happens. And I again Challenge you to ask your Luhyia friends who they will be voting for... most if not all will tell you RAO.

This thing I believe will end with a runoff. Jubillee will take the first round with a small margin then Cord to take it at the Final.

Mutahi Ngunyi is the man to follow on twitter.
https://twitter.com/MutahiNgunyi

@MutahiNgunyi

Kenyans believe in witchcraft more than science. Kiambu alone has 860,000 registered voters. These jubilee suspects COULD win. Add the math!

@MutahiNgunyi

IEBC Ethnic math: Uhuru = 4.3 million votes, Ruto = 1.6 M. Raila = 1.7 M Kalonzo 1M. Jubilee = 5.9 million; CORD = 2.7m.Did I add correctly?