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New Year Resolutions
hisah
#41 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 4:42:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
stocksguru wrote:
In retrospect, everyone is a genius, when I was taking a position on the various counters all the indicators and fundamentals where right for entry...


That AK chart is very interesting. It is basing out.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mukiri
#42 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 4:45:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
sparkly wrote:

MSC is a good investment in my opinion but you need to know when to take profits. Buying low (below 5) and selling high (above 7) is a good idea.


MSC good investment? With all the misfortunes befalling this company why would it be considered good? They are diversifying because sugar production is plagued with issues and there is no guarantee the new venture will bear fruit. Moreover, there is talk of a rights issue to raise capital.

Please tell us what would drive MSC from 5 to 7?
How long will this take?
And in this time frame aren't there other more profitable counters?

Proverbs 19:21
mkonomtupu
#43 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 4:56:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@stocksguru, relax the most important thing for an investor is emotionally stability if you believe the fundamentals of a company are right then stick to it. I watched NIC tumble from 55 to 23 last year I didn't panic because I knew the fundamentals were right so I bought more at 23-25 range. I bought into Uchumi starting from 10/= and I watched tumble to 6.80/= and I put my thoughts on wazua where people expressed pity that I was buying a monkey which would hit below 5/= but I didn't panic because the fundamentals were okay and I took a major plunge at 6.80-7.20/=.The rest is history
Aguytrying
#44 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 6:22:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@stocksguru.

Few have the courage to admit their mistakes, this is where growth in knowledge starts.
My honest view.

Kenya airways, eveready are hopeless companies. Divest from them. with eveready you even risk losing you principal- incase the company goes bankrupt. KQ will give you ulcers with current management and lose you more money( next time it rallies to 20's- sell and never look back, lets see how expansion will go-but im very sceptic). Im also a victim of KQ, i bought at around 46-50. I sold at a large loss. however then my investment was small so i recovered.

Mumias. Its a good company with a very uncertain future. You can bet with them if you believe they will thrive post comesa.

access to me is the best counter you are holding. I think it has hit its rock bottom like others have stated. I believe it could make you money.

There are gems to pick at the moment. HFCK, KENGEN. and others. If pain of selling at a loss is too much. do not average down, invest heavily in new counters.

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
sparkly
#45 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 6:38:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Mukiri wrote:
sparkly wrote:

MSC is a good investment in my opinion but you need to know when to take profits. Buying low (below 5) and selling high (above 7) is a good idea.


MSC good investment? With all the misfortunes befalling this company why would it be considered good? They are diversifying because sugar production is plagued with issues and there is no guarantee the new venture will bear fruit. Moreover, there is talk of a rights issue to raise capital.

Please tell us what would drive MSC from 5 to 7?
How long will this take?
And in this time frame aren't there other more profitable counters?

@Mukiri there is lots of uncertainty about the company's future but they are still in profits and pay a dividend. Sugar is a basic commodity so chances of a complete wipeout are low. The charts for the stock are also predictable. With MSC i trade technicals not fundamentals.
Life is short. Live passionately.
investorinpple
#46 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 6:46:42 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 10/19/2012
Posts: 8
My 4 Bets going forward are Kengen, Kenya Re, Access Kenya and Transcentury. If I were you, I would start exiting KQ, Eveready and MSC in the next few weeks hoping to get the best price for each in this bull market. After the elections or when the stocks go down, try get a low entry point for the four I have mentioned above.

We have all lost money in the market at one point or another, but the main thing is to persist, do a portfolio re-balance whenever you feel it is time to. I believe you can recover your losses.... you surely can! All the best.
S.Mutaga III
#47 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 7:55:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
I believe what @aguy has said is the best advice.If you cant handle the stress of selling your current counters at a loss,then dont average down...just start afresh with new counters and new cash. #goodluck#
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
Aguytrying
#48 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 8:46:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I believe what @aguy has said is the best advice.If you cant handle the stress of selling your current counters at a loss,then dont average down...just start afresh with new counters and new cash. #goodluck#


true... experience is the best teacher
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#49 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 9:26:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
My anthem all along in my years trading stocks from paper to electronic has been that long term is a summation of short terms and that a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush.
I only do a max of 3 stocks often 2 which I always monitor every day. Here im talking about price,any changes in management of that coompany,action of competitors,macro economic environment etc. Truth is it's easier for you to know almost everything about something as opposed to something about everything.
These 2 stocks must be:
1) Growth stocks - Doing profits of 40% plus or have future potential.
2) Liquid - Very important coz of ease of entry & exit.
3) Darling of foreigners/Elicit foreign investor interest.
Im currently invested in Safaricom & KCB.
The picks keep changing depending on the fortunes of the company. For instance,i dumped Equity for KCB in October 2011 & I have been trading it since then(buying in dips & selling in surges). Waiting to see its Q1 2013 to know if it'l still be in my best 2. Equity bank kept me going from 2006-2011 due to its high growth rates then but clearly KCB has been able to come out strong since. Before that I had EABL,MSC, & KQ which I dumped in 2004,2005 & 2006. Safaricom also meets my above criteria & will still remain in my portfolio.

I have also learnt never to get emotional with stocks. If they cease to meet my criteria outlined above,i dump them like yesterday. Case in point is EABL, KQ,MSC & Equity & that todays winners are not necessary tomorrows,hence the need to constantly evaluate & revise your stock picks.

There is also the need for timing. To know the best time to get in & also out. Greed & fear are always at play. Managing these makes all the difference.


Happy investing @stocksguru. Hope 2013 works out for you investmentwise!

Be blessed!
@SufficientlyP
sparkly
#50 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 10:02:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
stocksguru wrote:

I am sure that many of you out there have the same shares in your portfolios but are too ashamed to say so, if you made the decision why not be proud enough to stand by it?

Looking forward to continued positive responses


No shame in having certain shares in one's portfolio. I had access as part of my speculative portfolio, made some profits trading it between 16-21 which were wiped out when it started the downward spiral. sold at a loss when it went sub 10 and put the cash elsewhere. Still have a few for sentimental reasons. When recovery starts i will be a buyer.

similarly i have some KQ picked at 19 plus the rights but they make up a less than 2% of my portfolio so no worry.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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