Wazua
»
Club SK
»
Politics
»
Presidential poll uncertainties - walk-over!
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
|
Angelica_Ann = EssyK "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
|
Lolest! wrote:@Liv, but still they will lose round 2. Jubilee must win round 1 or lose kabisa. Cord can afford to lose 1st round so long as Jubilee doesnt get 50% @Lolest,
You may be right....however it will depend on how close CORD will be to no 1 Jubilee. If Jubilee misses it by getting 48% against Cord's 38% ... then post election coalitions may favour Jubilee and they might still win in the runoff.
For round 1, the best CORD can do is to "hope for the best".... with Mudavadi storming the Western province.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
|
MAINA NJENGA INCLUDED IN ICC CHARGES Is he a liability or an asset for pamba? http://www.the-star.co.k...nga-included-icc-chargesHistory will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/5/2010 Posts: 2,061 Location: Nairobi
|
murchr wrote:Angelica_Ann = EssyK I agree as well. Too prolific, in the style of Lorraine. You have been made @angelica ...There are hawk eyed people in here.. 
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
|
@Liv, Which post election election coalition will favour Jubilee? None IMHO. Even if Musalia backs Jubilee his people wont follow. Same for the other horses, donkeys and mules.
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/30/2011 Posts: 81
|
Angelica _ann wrote:Uhuruto has locked in
1. Central with high registration and likely high voter turn out.
2. Central and North Rift courtesy of Ruto.
3. Nairobi they are doing 53.5%
4. Patrolists, they are ahead of OAR with their nose makers in Duale, Kaparo,et all
5. Coast is 50/50
6. See how hard they are working on Kuria and Kisii/Nyamira areas over the last 2 days.
Things are looking for Jubilee alliance in the year of Jubilee celebrations.
I will come back with country by county figures, we are still crunching the numbers.
Mudavadi has basically spoilt a first round win for Raila. We will however hang on there with Cord and hope for a run-off where we will trounce the suspects (run-off is a definite win for Raila). If Jubilee wins (God forbid), Kenyans will turn from being the most optimistic to the most stupid people on earth for voting people accused of crimes against humanity. They may be innocent but common sense dictates you clear your name first given the magnitude of the charges. We can still elect them in 2017 if they are proven to be innocent.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
|
Lolest! wrote:@Liv, Which post election election coalition will favour Jubilee? None IMHO. Even if Musalia backs Jubilee his people wont follow. Same for the other horses, donkeys and mules. It will depend on how close the Jubilee vote is to 50%. If it is very close (47%+) you will see all the donkey and mule parties supporting Jubilee. It will also depend on party strength in parliament. The turnout for 2nd round for those other parties (donkeys & mules) will be very low....as their candidates will not be in contention. National total Voter turnout will be not far from circa 60% for runoff....and the base support (Luo Nyanza + Ukambani where high turnout is expected) for Cord is significantly lower than that of Jubilee.
The runoff will be held not later 3rd April 2013. Article 138 (5) of our constitution says a fresh election shall be held within 30 days after the previous election. Those people thinking that the runoff will be held when UMK and WSR are at the Hague are wrong. Runoff is likely to be on Monday 1st or Tuesday 2nd April.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/30/2008 Posts: 6,029
|
[quote=BGL]MAINA NJENGA INCLUDED IN ICC CHARGES Is he a liability or an asset for pamba? http://www.the-star.co.k...ga-included-icc-charges[/quote] Head of security.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
|
The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/5/2010 Posts: 2,061 Location: Nairobi
|
McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! No compelling alternative exists though, therefore ....
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/30/2011 Posts: 483
|
McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! Would they rather vote the son of Jaramogi? I doubt it. They will also be voting for WR as the Deputy President. He is URP and URP is him. This propaganda is not helping CORD, you are actually looking scared of RV.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/31/2008 Posts: 1,076
|
Lucid_Iam wrote:McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! Would they rather vote the son of Jaramogi? I doubt it. This propaganda is not helping CORD, you are actually looking scared of RV. Two issues 1)Wherever they vote, what is instrumental is that, if it doesnt end up in Jubilee's column, then their strategy begins crumbling. 2) Is it propaganda or is it the reality on the ground! Dunia ni msongamano..
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/24/2009 Posts: 5,909 Location: Nairobi
|
Lucid_Iam wrote:McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! Would they rather vote the son of Jaramogi? I doubt it. They will also be voting for WR as the Deputy President. He is URP and URP is him. This propaganda is not helping CORD, you are actually looking scared of RV. @Lucid...I don't think it is propaganda...I've heard the same from my RV pals, they would rather vote URP hapo chini, lakini hapo juu, tumia akili...in essence, they can vote WSR out for misleading them into the jaws....
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
|
B.Timer wrote:Lucid_Iam wrote:McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! Would they rather vote the son of Jaramogi? I doubt it. This propaganda is not helping CORD, you are actually looking scared of RV. Two issues 1)Wherever they vote what is instrumental is that if it doesnt end up in Jubilee's column, them their strategy begins crumbling. 2) Is it propaganda or is it the reality on the ground! Easy, ask any kale friend of yours apige simu mashinani!!!! ........it's rather obvious that the Jubilee alliance has excited central, not so can be said of Kale RV!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/31/2008 Posts: 1,076
|
McReggae wrote:B.Timer wrote:Lucid_Iam wrote:McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! Would they rather vote the son of Jaramogi? I doubt it. This propaganda is not helping CORD, you are actually looking scared of RV. Two issues 1)Wherever they vote what is instrumental is that if it doesnt end up in Jubilee's column, them their strategy begins crumbling. 2) Is it propaganda or is it the reality on the ground! Easy, ask any kale friend of yours apige simu mashinani!!!! ........it's rather obvious that the Jubilee alliance has excited central, not so can be said of Kale RV!!!! My Kaleii friends told me last week that RV will vote in URP MPs, Senators, Govnrs etc, but the common campaign is "for hapo juu, tumia akili". Dunia ni msongamano..
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/9/2009 Posts: 1,262
|
McReggae wrote:B.Timer wrote:Lucid_Iam wrote:McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! Would they rather vote the son of Jaramogi? I doubt it. This propaganda is not helping CORD, you are actually looking scared of RV. Two issues 1)Wherever they vote what is instrumental is that if it doesnt end up in Jubilee's column, them their strategy begins crumbling. 2) Is it propaganda or is it the reality on the ground! Easy, ask any kale friend of yours apige simu mashinani!!!! ........it's rather obvious that the Jubilee alliance has excited central, not so can be said of Kale RV!!!! Infant they are warming up to MM. But they'll definately vote in URP Senetors, Governers etc. They are just not as excited about UK. The big question on the ground is if UK Was ready to step down for MM why didn't he offer the same to WR? Given that the presidency is currently in the region and WR suppoted him in 2002.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/9/2008 Posts: 2,824
|
Question: why are many here assuming that messi will come up 3rd??? This guy may surprise some people!! watu wafanye hesabu vizuri... hachaneni na carley francis kwa hii maneno... When I have money, I get rid of it quickly, lest it find a way into my heart.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
|
B.Timer wrote:McReggae wrote:B.Timer wrote:Lucid_Iam wrote:McReggae wrote:The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!! Would they rather vote the son of Jaramogi? I doubt it. This propaganda is not helping CORD, you are actually looking scared of RV. Two issues 1)Wherever they vote what is instrumental is that if it doesnt end up in Jubilee's column, them their strategy begins crumbling. 2) Is it propaganda or is it the reality on the ground! Easy, ask any kale friend of yours apige simu mashinani!!!! ........it's rather obvious that the Jubilee alliance has excited central, not so can be said of Kale RV!!!! My Kaleii friends told me last week that RV will vote in URP MPs, Senators, Govnrs etc, but the common campaign is "for hapo juu, tumia akili". If wishes were donkeys beggars would ride.
we have several "middle class" people from central Kenya who will not vote for UMK. I guess there a few Luo middle class folks who will not vote for RAO. This is the same across the board.
But wishes are free... realistically CORD's strategy now is ...HOPE FOR THE BEST.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/24/2009 Posts: 5,909 Location: Nairobi
|
kingfisher wrote:Question: why are many here assuming that messi will come up 3rd??? This guy may surprise some people!! watu wafanye hesabu vizuri... hachaneni na carley francis kwa hii maneno...  with the Mbus as his running mate, they might dent UMKs voting block... Mdvd has always come out like a coward (and waiting for people to form parties for him), and that is the image he's trying to shed off....he is currently campaigning strictly in Western, instead of trying out his campaign rallies across the country...
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/9/2008 Posts: 2,824
|
nostoppingthis wrote:kingfisher wrote:Question: why are many here assuming that messi will come up 3rd??? This guy may surprise some people!! watu wafanye hesabu vizuri... hachaneni na carley francis kwa hii maneno... with the Mbus as his running mate, they might dent UMKs voting block... Mdvd has always come out like a coward (and waiting for people to form parties for him), and that is the image he's trying to shed off....he is currently campaigning strictly in Western, instead of trying out his campaign rallies across the country... I do not even have the mbus in mind when asking this questions because the mbus owner has no interest in such high profile non promising positions.... i am thinking of raw numbers of voters... When I have money, I get rid of it quickly, lest it find a way into my heart.
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Club SK
»
Politics
»
Presidential poll uncertainties - walk-over!
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|