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Presidential poll uncertainties - walk-over!
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murchr
#21 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 10:13:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Angelica_Ann = EssyK
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Liv
#22 Posted : Monday, January 07, 2013 11:36:24 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Lolest! wrote:
@Liv, but still they will lose round 2. Jubilee must win round 1 or lose kabisa. Cord can afford to lose 1st round so long as Jubilee doesnt get 50%



@Lolest,
You may be right....however it will depend on how close CORD will be to no 1 Jubilee. If Jubilee misses it by getting 48% against Cord's 38% ... then post election coalitions may favour Jubilee and they might still win in the runoff.

For round 1, the best CORD can do is to "hope for the best".... with Mudavadi storming the Western province.
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BGL
#23 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 12:40:02 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
MAINA NJENGA INCLUDED IN ICC CHARGES

Is he a liability or an asset for pamba?

http://www.the-star.co.k...nga-included-icc-charges
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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quicksand
#24 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 1:22:27 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
Angelica_Ann = EssyK

I agree as well. Too prolific, in the style of Lorraine. You have been made @angelica ...There are hawk eyed people in here..
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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Lolest!
#25 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 6:34:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
@Liv, Which post election election coalition will favour Jubilee? None IMHO. Even if Musalia backs Jubilee his people wont follow. Same for the other horses, donkeys and mules.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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ballistic
#26 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 7:21:35 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/30/2011
Posts: 81
Angelica _ann wrote:
Uhuruto has locked in
1. Central with high registration and likely high voter turn out.
2. Central and North Rift courtesy of Ruto.
3. Nairobi they are doing 53.5%
4. Patrolists, they are ahead of OAR with their nose makers in Duale, Kaparo,et all
5. Coast is 50/50
6. See how hard they are working on Kuria and Kisii/Nyamira areas over the last 2 days.


Things are looking for Jubilee alliance in the year of Jubilee celebrations.

I will come back with country by county figures, we are still crunching the numbers.


Mudavadi has basically spoilt a first round win for Raila. We will however hang on there with Cord and hope for a run-off where we will trounce the suspects (run-off is a definite win for Raila).
If Jubilee wins (God forbid), Kenyans will turn from being the most optimistic to the most stupid people on earth for voting people accused of crimes against humanity. They may be innocent but common sense dictates you clear your name first given the magnitude of the charges. We can still elect them in 2017 if they are proven to be innocent.
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Liv
#27 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 10:28:14 AM
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Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Lolest! wrote:
@Liv, Which post election election coalition will favour Jubilee? None IMHO. Even if Musalia backs Jubilee his people wont follow. Same for the other horses, donkeys and mules.


It will depend on how close the Jubilee vote is to 50%. If it is very close (47%+) you will see all the donkey and mule parties supporting Jubilee. It will also depend on party strength in parliament. The turnout for 2nd round for those other parties (donkeys & mules) will be very low....as their candidates will not be in contention. National total Voter turnout will be not far from circa 60% for runoff....and the base support (Luo Nyanza + Ukambani where high turnout is expected) for Cord is significantly lower than that of Jubilee.

The runoff will be held not later 3rd April 2013. Article 138 (5) of our constitution says a fresh election shall be held within 30 days after the previous election. Those people thinking that the runoff will be held when UMK and WSR are at the Hague are wrong. Runoff is likely to be on Monday 1st or Tuesday 2nd April.
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mawinder
#28 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 11:18:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/30/2008
Posts: 6,029
[quote=BGL]MAINA NJENGA INCLUDED IN ICC CHARGES

Is he a liability or an asset for pamba?

http://www.the-star.co.k...ga-included-icc-charges[/quote]
Head of security.
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McReggae
#29 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 11:31:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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quicksand
#30 Posted : Tuesday, January 08, 2013 11:34:52 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
McReggae wrote:
The Kalenjin land is URP zone but a number are not keen on voting for the son of jommo!!!!


No compelling alternative exists though, therefore ....
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