This is a probable voting pattern based on population census data and assuming that a normal distribution of voters will be replicated on the polling stations.

CORD MDVD/KARUA/PK JUBILEE
KIKUYU (22%) 2% 2.5% 17.5%
Luhya(14%) 8% 5% 1%
Luo (13%) 13% 0% 0%
Kalenjin (12%) 2% 0% 10%
Kamba (11%) 9% 0% 2%
Kisii (6%) 3% 0% 3%
Meru (6%) 0% 0% 6%
Embu/mbeere(5%) 0% 0% 5%
Others (11%) 7% 1% 3%

44% 8.5% 47.5%

NB Others (The elite + tribeless + wazuans, wahindi, and all small tribes)

Jubilee will not get all Kikuyu votes because the elite among them are wary of the consequences to their businesses and also PK and MK are running.
Luhya= swing vote
Luo= 100% Cord
Kalenjin= 90% jubilee
Kamba=80% cord
Kisii=another swing vote
meru=100% Jubilee...Kiraitu is just trying to be relevant
Others=swing vote with majority voting for cord.

Conflict of interest: None to declare (i hold no vote)
Assumptions: (i)Uhuru will be on the ballot paper
(ii) Miguna Miguna 2nd book will not change the voting patterns.
(iii) Mudavadi, PK and Karua will be on the ballot paper

Conclusion: A very tight contest but jubilee has an edge but a run off cannot be ruled out.

my 2 cents
Round 1 may go either way, but ICC reality will play a major role in round 2 given that UK/WR will be at the hague and voters will wake up to the reality of possible absentee president / DP.

Cord is also set to benefit largely from Eagle/pambazuka supporters.

With musalia/eugene out of the equation Western vote will be consolidated in favour of cord.

MPs who also hoped to benefit from UK/WR wave will have their 'seats' hence will be less aggressive.

IEBC figures are just numbers you need to extract some information from those figures.

I avoided IEBC because because many people registered where they work, school or presume to be as at march 04, 2013. Besides, pollsters have analysed that in detail and their sample size, methodology and conflict of interest are never disclosed.

Ethnic stratification will not explain the skewed registration with more registered voters in urban areas and where education organizations are located. We all know ethnicity will play a key role this year although the 41 vs 1 benefited Raila in 2007 it will work against him this time around. Truth be told he has lost Kalenjin but got Kamba and Luhyia is a swing vote. If Luhyia vote Mudavadi en masse Raila is done. However, if Karua and PK get nothing and Wamalwa moves to Jubilee, Uhuru will win round one. Incase of a run-off (i)women will decide the winner. Ethnicity is so deep rooted in us Men, it will be replicated in round two. Women take the lesser painful option when choosing two disasters.

Focusing on ethnic identity as a factor then the picture becomes more clearer. The question on our minds should be.... if Raila loses fair and square...will he accept the results? I doubt it.
A second question. Will Uhuru go to the hague if elected president? i doubt. But if he loses he will
Tafakari hayo.

So long as Kikuyus plus Ruto Kales do not add up to 50%.....listen to one @Lolest!!!!

With the history of the presidency, the sympathetic group will be a long shot!!!!