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Game of numbers. ......
ali
#21 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 11:49:47 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/11/2008
Posts: 892
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
UK is not Kibaki, the ball game in Eastern is different, he will not be getting the near fanatical thumbs up that Kibaki was guaranteed.

My analysis is only on the numbers available for the taking, as the elections move nearer and UK is confirmed as the flag bearer, the gloves will come off and expect CORD to milk the ICC/International sanctions angle to the full. They are not doing that as they don't want him to give him time to restrategise.

I can assure you, many of his rational supporters will opt to not take the risk, especially in Eastern and Rift. His total numbers will certainly
I still believe UK will not be on the ballot
I believe in the constitution and expect him to fall way below the bar set by chapter 6.


me too, i hope and pray he will not be on the ballot. bt for different reasons than yours.
For in him (Jesus) we live and move and have our being-Acts 17:28
ZZE123
#22 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 9:21:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/21/2008
Posts: 2,490
This is an interesting thread… I like the numbers analysis. Will ICC have a higher influence on voting patens than ethnicity?
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bigbossman
#23 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 10:09:46 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/14/2012
Posts: 201
Location: nairobi
ZZE123 wrote:
This is an interesting thread… I like the numbers analysis. Will ICC have a higher influence on voting patens than ethnicity?

Of course tribalism will win over ICC Comeon, this is Kenya.
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Mastermind
#24 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:04:22 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/25/2012
Posts: 1,624
Location: Langley
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Rahatupu
#25 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:06:35 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 1,982
Location: matano manne
ali wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
UK is not Kibaki, the ball game in Eastern is different, he will not be getting the near fanatical thumbs up that Kibaki was guaranteed.

My analysis is only on the numbers available for the taking, as the elections move nearer and UK is confirmed as the flag bearer, the gloves will come off and expect CORD to milk the ICC/International sanctions angle to the full. They are not doing that as they don't want him to give him time to restrategise.

I can assure you, many of his rational supporters will opt to not take the risk, especially in Eastern and Rift. His total numbers will certainly
I still believe UK will not be on the ballot
I believe in the constitution and expect him to fall way below the bar set by chapter 6.


me too, i hope and pray he will not be on the ballot. bt for different reasons than yours.


Unless UK is disqualified by the local courts, the ICC card might gain Jubilnation lots of sympathy especially in Eastern and dwindle Cord numbers further in RV.
Sure
#26 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:07:51 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
RAILA WIN LIKE THIS;

Nairobi 1 million (the reason the numbers swelled is coz the migrant labourers did not travel back to western to register. they are all here and will turn up to vote)
Coast 700K
Nyanza 1.7 million
Western 1.2 million
Eastern 1. million
Central 0
Rift valley 0.8 million (Maasai votes, bukusu votes and votes from a few town dwellers and tea pickers scatterred around Kericho and Nandi areas)
North Eastern 0.2 million

TOTAL 6.6

UHURUTO

Rift Valley 2.2 million
Central 1.9 million
Nairobi 0.7 million
Eastern 1 million
Nyanza 0.2 million
Coast 0.3
Western 0
NE 0.1

TOTAL 6.5

Turnout 13.1 million 91 %

My projected turnout is slightly higher than what will actually be the case, I am betting on a turnout of btn 75 - 80% in round 1 and slightly lower in round 2.


TNA easily outnumbers ODM in Nairobi by a huge margin. Rongai is a good reflection of the larger cosmopolitan Nairobi today. TNA thrashed ODM handsdown in Rongai. By extension, Jubilee Alliance will repeat the same walkover in Nairobi without breaking a sweat. The mistake PNU did in 2007 in Nairobi of fielding five candidates in one constituency will most likely not be repeated.

By the way, sit down and watch real cutthroat politics taking centre stage. Its all systems go. In politics, its the numbers that matter, not opinion of Kahawa Anan.
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Obi 1 Kanobi
#27 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:20:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
Do your maths any way you want but RAO gets more votes in NAI than UK anyday, very many LUO/LUHYA voters will be voting in Nai instead of the traditional travel upcountry. And with the added Kamba votes, he moves ahead of UK easily.

Is Rongai in Nai or Riftvalley, plus it is not an indicator of anything as its mostly the Kyuks who prefer to settle in their own homes even if it means living out of town. RAO's constituency prefer to rent
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
TAZ
#28 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:34:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/14/2007
Posts: 4,152
@ Obi......As someone pointed out Nairobi has never really been anyone's stronghold......it will be 50-50 for both CORD and JUBILEE. Btw why do you think OAR wants Maggie to run for Nairobi Gov and not Kidero??
Obi 1 Kanobi
#29 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:39:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
TAZ wrote:
@ Obi......As someone pointed out Nairobi has never really been anyone's stronghold......it will be 50-50 for both CORD and JUBILEE. Btw why do you think OAR wants Maggie to run for Nairobi Gov and not Kidero??

Because RAO does not want another Luo taking a significant position as it will create the perception that ODM/CORD is a tribal outfit.

BTW In terms of real influence, the Nairobi governor has the potential to be the second most powerful politician after the president. its a pity that parties are allowing the likes of Maggie and Waititu to even dream that they should be considered for such a position.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
ali
#30 Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2012 11:58:36 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/11/2008
Posts: 892
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Do your maths any way you want but RAO gets more votes in NAI than UK anyday, very many LUO/LUHYA voters will be voting in Nai instead of the traditional travel upcountry. And with the added Kamba votes, he moves ahead of UK easily.

Is Rongai in Nai or Riftvalley, plus it is not an indicator of anything as its mostly the Kyuks who prefer to settle in their own homes even if it means living out of town. RAO's constituency prefer to rent


unless a major occurence has taken place
Oar has not, will n beat a UMK united in nbi.
I can bet on that. Migrants or no migrants. Even Kangumu knows that veyr well. Even with voter importation, Tett has never lost a westlands contest thru the ballot but thru extra-eletrol means.
Same with embakasi in 07. Listen to kriegler testimonies.
Rongai reflects NBI in many ways
For in him (Jesus) we live and move and have our being-Acts 17:28
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