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Game of numbers. ......
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tycho
#11 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 12:18:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/1/2011
Posts: 8,804
Location: Nairobi
Either way, Pyrrhic victory follows.
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mpobiz
#12 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 1:23:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/10/2010
Posts: 2,272
maka wrote:
Let whoever is meant to win,win...


The winner will be determined not by luck but by votes.
Easteners won't vote for rao at the expense of their jubilee neighbours and coisins.
cord don't have the numbers and that's the bottom line.
Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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maka
#13 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 1:35:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
mpobiz wrote:
maka wrote:
Let whoever is meant to win,win...


The winner will be determined not by luck but by votes.
Easteners won't vote for rao at the expense of their jubilee neighbours and coisins.
cord don't have the numbers and that's the bottom line.

...is this why we gained independence?so that every election year we behave like fools and galvanize each other we continue propagating hatred,making otherz seem of less value as compared to others...a majority of us r jst screwed up.
possunt quia posse videntur
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Obi 1 Kanobi
#14 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 1:42:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
RAILA WIN LIKE THIS;

Nairobi 1 million (the reason the numbers swelled is coz the migrant labourers did not travel back to western to register. they are all here and will turn up to vote)
Coast 700K
Nyanza 1.7 million
Western 1.2 million
Eastern 1. million
Central 0
Rift valley 0.8 million (Maasai votes, bukusu votes and votes from a few town dwellers and tea pickers scatterred around Kericho and Nandi areas)
North Eastern 0.2 million

TOTAL 6.6

UHURUTO

Rift Valley 2.2 million
Central 1.9 million
Nairobi 0.7 million
Eastern 1 million
Nyanza 0.2 million
Coast 0.3
Western 0
NE 0.1

TOTAL 6.5

Turnout 13.1 million 91 %

My projected turnout is slightly higher than what will actually be the case, I am betting on a turnout of btn 75 - 80% in round 1 and slightly lower in round 2.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, December 26, 2012 1:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#15 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 2:19:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
RAILA WIN LIKE THIS;

Nairobi 1 million (the reason the numbers swelled is coz the migrant labourers did not travel back to western to register. they are all here and will turn up to vote)
Coast 700K
Nyanza 1.7 million
Western 1.2 million
Eastern 1. million
Central 0
Rift valley 0.8 million (Maasai votes, bukusu votes and votes from a few town dwellers and tea pickers scatterred around Kericho and Nandi areas)
North Eastern 0.2 million

TOTAL 6.6

UHURUTO

Rift Valley 2.2 million
Central 1.9 million
Nairobi 0.7 million
Eastern 1 million
Nyanza 0.2 million
Coast 0.3
Western 0
NE 0.1

TOTAL 6.5

Turnout 13.1 million 91 %

My projected turnout is slightly higher than what will actually be the case, I am betting on a turnout of btn 75 - 80% in round 1 and slightly lower in round 2.


Good analysis except that Western(where the swing votes are) will let him down by lower voter turnout and of these,some will go to mudavadi.
Final verdict: Uhuruto wins with +50% coz of high turnout in their strongholds!!!
Source:History!
@SufficientlyP
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Impunity
#16 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 2:20:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,335
Location: Masada
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
RAILA WIN LIKE THIS;

Nairobi 1 million (the reason the numbers swelled is coz the migrant labourers did not travel back to western to register. they are all here and will turn up to vote)


Hate speech!
You mean we dont migrant laborers from Central and Masaku?
Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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dunkang
#17 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 2:24:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
@Obi, Nairobi is 50-50, though you have done a good/fair analysis. I have never imagined an ODMer can see facts as you have seen.

ION, how will my Tuju fair? Apart from my vote and his immediate family, iko zingine kweli?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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kenmac
#18 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 5:55:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
RAILA WIN LIKE THIS;

Nairobi 1 million (the reason the numbers swelled is coz the migrant labourers did not travel back to western to register. they are all here and will turn up to vote)
Coast 700K
Nyanza 1.7 million
Western 1.2 million
Eastern 1. million
Central 0
Rift valley 0.8 million (Maasai votes, bukusu votes and votes from a few town dwellers and tea pickers scatterred around Kericho and Nandi areas)
North Eastern 0.2 million

TOTAL 6.6

UHURUTO

Rift Valley 2.2 million
Central 1.9 million
Nairobi 0.7 million
Eastern 1 million
Nyanza 0.2 million
Coast 0.3
Western 0
NE 0.1

TOTAL 6.5

Turnout 13.1 million 91 %

My projected turnout is slightly higher than what will actually be the case, II am betting on a turnout of btn 75 - 80% in round 1 and slightly lower in round 2.



Getting 1m in eastern is somewhat a long shot. Skm got 700 despite camping there in 07.

Embu, mbeere, tharaka, meru, tigania are the most populous.
......Ecclesiastes
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ali
#19 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 6:13:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/11/2008
Posts: 892
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
RAILA WIN LIKE THIS;

Nairobi 1 million (the reason the numbers swelled is coz the migrant labourers did not travel back to western to register. they are all here and will turn up to vote)
Coast 700K
Nyanza 1.7 million
Western 1.2 million
Eastern 1. million
Central 0
Rift valley 0.8 million (Maasai votes, bukusu votes and votes from a few town dwellers and tea pickers scatterred around Kericho and Nandi areas)
North Eastern 0.2 million

TOTAL 6.6

UHURUTO

Rift Valley 2.2 million
Central 1.9 million
Nairobi 0.7 million
Eastern 1 million
Nyanza 0.2 million
Coast 0.3
Western 0
NE 0.1

TOTAL 6.5

Turnout 13.1 million 91 %

My projected turnout is slightly higher than what will actually be the case, I am betting on a turnout of btn 75 - 80% in round 1 and slightly lower in round 2.

cord cannot beat Jubilee in Eastern. You can take that to the Bank.Any bank
For in him (Jesus) we live and move and have our being-Acts 17:28
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Obi 1 Kanobi
#20 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2012 6:26:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
UK is not Kibaki, the ball game in Eastern is different, he will not be getting the near fanatical thumbs up that Kibaki was guaranteed.

My analysis is only on the numbers available for the taking, as the elections move nearer and UK is confirmed as the flag bearer, the gloves will come off and expect CORD to milk the ICC/International sanctions angle to the full. They are not doing that as they don't want him to give him time to restrategise.

I can assure you, many of his rational supporters will opt to not take the risk, especially in Eastern and Rift. His total numbers will certainly drop

I still believe UK will not be on the ballot. I believe in the constitution and expect him to fall way below the bar set by chapter 6.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, December 26, 2012 6:33 PM | Reason: Not specified
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