Show me pamba's permutations to 50%+1....

@guks, neither CORD nor Jubilee will get 50%. The 25% rule in more than half the counties will be the easier part. Uhuruto might just get a slim win over cord in round 1 only to lose in round 2. Think of the issue based constituency esp in urban areas. Between Uhuru and RAO who would they go for? Then the ethnic card would be played again-u know Tingas people. They r gud in it. Didnt u hear it Tononoka?

@impunity, .5million? From view point towards Naivasha, stretch to mai mahiu, to, giglgil town all the way to Nyahururu, laikipia, then Nakuru stretch to Rongai, upto molo, till near eldoret aka burnt forest, dont forget Kajiado hear in Nairobi aka Ongata Rongai(Mungiki Hq) and Ngong upto corner baridi. A few Maa here and there, isolated "other people" the rest ni kalenjin.

It's more like 1.5million

The higher the turnout during the runoff the better the chances for pamba and vice versa for UK anything than less 10million UK is home and dry

I totally agree Guka. Voter turnout will be the make or break. I had assumed uniform voter turnout throughout such that even with less than 100% turnout the ratio is the same and the 51%/49% still holds.

Interestingly, with the 2007 voter turnout above, and assuming the same provincial targets for each candidate, UK takes it 52%/48%.


@McReggea

I agree with you, they are tribal arithmetic, but I hope you wont bury your head in the sand and assume that's NOT what 2013 will be about. It is sad but that's our Kenya now. (Mind you I dont support any of them because of perpetuating tribalism) but its not lost in me that they may be my President come next year. Sad but true.

We are just picking our heads with unscientific hypothesis and I wish you can engage us also on why you think CORD will make 50%+1.

We are just having a conversation.