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Waiting to exhale on this Nairobi City!!!!
jamplu
#101 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 7:40:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2010
Posts: 939
Location: Nai
Vj - thanks to you and Marty for passing some good info
ProverB
#102 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 8:08:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
murchr wrote:
sentinel prime wrote:
so you people are non believers, talking about prosperity ....the Bible talks of terrible famine and pestilence across africa.our agricultural practices are still extremely primitive .


In wazua we quote our sources. weka hio verse hapa.

Na tuombee

What bible?
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
new investor
#103 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 10:08:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/26/2007
Posts: 118
digitek1 wrote:
the problem with young people is that you want instant coffee.
nobody started out in those neighbourhoods unless they inherited. youve got to move up the ladder
you can take the 20 % mortgage but you dont have to wait for 20 yrs to pay. take a cheaper house pay off faster sell it use that as a deposit for a more expensive home and walla you are in karen smile


The last time someone in our bank took a mortgage at 2%, it was valued at around 4.5m but she will pay at 20k for the next 22years (note the 2%interest only coz she is a bank employee.......
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itz
#104 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 8:56:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
well well.look at this, your discussions on wazua made it to the daily nation.

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../1/-/bs66m0/-/index.html
jamplu
#105 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 9:07:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2010
Posts: 939
Location: Nai
[quote=itz]well well.look at this, your discussions on wazua made it to the daily nation.

http://www.nation.co.ke/...1/-/bs66m0/-/index.html[/quote]

Another week another bubble debate.
Jamani
#106 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 9:52:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Quoted from DN

Jam Jr replied:

Agreed. The prices are outrageous and, as mentioned, in certain instances are one-and-a-half times higher than a house in a major US city. I was just about to buy one but something told me something was not right and I adhered to my feelings.

Slowman did the math:

Jam, if you buy an apartment in Westlands for, say, Sh18 million and take a mortgage from our local banks, you will need to pay Sh360,000 every month plus Sh30,000 service fee for some apartments (to pay for running the swimming pool, gym, sauna, lift, optical fibre, etc). Rent for these apartments goes for around Sh150,000. That means you will need to top up around Sh240,000 to pay mortgage and service charges. A bubble burst in Kenya will (or is already) happen (-ing) in upmarket areas, particularly for apartments in Westlands, Kileleshwa, Kilimani, Hurlingham, and Lavington.
Jamani
#107 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 9:57:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Continue

Harmu questioned this line of thought:

(Those bandying around these numbers) should first educate (themselves) before commenting. Please note that (those saying the boom is healthy) are in this business on a day-to-day basis and would have a better feel than you, the kawaida mwananchi who reads it in the papers. Kenyans need to stop comparing Kenya with the US; these are completely different markets.

Masumbi replied:

I am comparing incomes to prices. The per capita income in the US is around $48,000 (Sh4 million) while in Kenya it is $820 (Sh70,000). The average price of a two-bedroom apartment in the US is around $80,000 (Sh6.8 million) while the lower-end price of a two-bedroom apartment in the “leafy suburbs” of Kenya is around $120,000 (Sh10 million). The average middle-class income in Kenya is $600 (Sh50,000) while it is $50,000 (Sh4.2 million) in the US. During the height of the bubble in the US, people used to boast that prices would never collapse because America is an economic giant. Kenya cannot defy gravity. It is a matter of when rather than if.

Webed gave Masumbi the trophy: Verdict: Masumbi wins. I like the logical yet factual arguments you present. I suspect you are a realtor.
Jamani
#108 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 9:59:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Read for yourself
Link
murchr
#109 Posted : Thursday, December 06, 2012 1:15:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Madam Admin should contact the DN Writer and ask 4 a fee.

This peeper (Guest) should pay Shame on you
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Rapudox
#110 Posted : Thursday, December 06, 2012 2:22:29 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2010
Posts: 65
Location: Europe
...how cool is that? Thumbs up for Wazua, we feel & discuss the pulse of the times. For the Record, I dont work for DN :). Am in a completely different field. Never stop thinking!
murchr
#111 Posted : Thursday, December 06, 2012 5:26:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Rapudox wrote:
...how cool is that? Thumbs up for Wazua, we feel & discuss the pulse of the times. For the Record, I dont work for DN :). Am in a completely different field. Never stop thinking!


Why are u suspecting yourself? VJ they called you OTC Money
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
ChessMaster
#112 Posted : Friday, December 07, 2012 4:49:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
"Online, the arguments and counter-arguments on this topic have been quite enlightening and thought-provoking" - Direct translation - Wazua.

Though I noticed in the article and here in Wazua the focus is that a bubble is caused by credit and in Kenya credit isn't a problem as it was in the developed economies. Still think this is a wrong misconception. I think one reason they want to reintroduce capital tax in Kenya is to curb speculation on cars,real estate and shares.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
Ash Ock
#113 Posted : Friday, December 07, 2012 11:07:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/27/2010
Posts: 495
Location: Nairobi
ChessMaster wrote:

Though I noticed in the article and here in Wazua the focus is that a bubble is caused by credit and in Kenya credit isn't a problem as it was in the developed economies. Still think this is a wrong misconception. I think one reason they want to reintroduce capital tax in Kenya is to curb speculation on cars,real estate and shares.


Exactly.

Speculation is caused by human emotions. Real estate bubbles are caused by greed, something which you’ll find whether you’re in the US or Kenya. A bubble can only happen when greed drives it. The desire to literally make millions without lifting a finger and willfully ignoring the fundamental value of the property being purchased. In a high interest regime such as ours, the low average mortgage value, and the high prevalence of cash transactions in the real estate market are very worrying pointers to speculation. I’ve also been following the counter arguments and it’s quite interesting that the beneficiaries of our bubble are the ones comparing the US market to Kenya using the mortgage availability. That is very deceptive.

Yet for those anticipating making millions when the bubble bursts are also in for a rude shock, as history has shown. When the bubble bursts and hundreds if not thousands of speculators burn their fingers, fear takes over, making the recovery slow. With many families living on the edge (see Nairobi poverty rate), with the value of their most prized asset showing signs of plummeting, no soft government sponsored landings, money-launderers seeing their hidden loot depreciating fast, and the banks unable to hold off massive foreclosures anymore, panic coupled with fear will rule. As an example, would anyone here be willing to buy a 5bd house in Karen on ½ acre for 30m when you fear the bottom hasn’t yet been reached and that you might, just might, be buying an overvalued property?


Sent from my Black Nokia 3310
guru267
#114 Posted : Saturday, December 08, 2012 7:46:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
A 1acre plot in Karen hills is going for 32M.. Sad


If that is not a bubble waiting to burst in Nairobi i don't know what is!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
MatataMingi
#115 Posted : Sunday, December 09, 2012 4:14:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 398
Location: Where everyone knows you
Vj wrote:
Arguments aside I have one request: please believe in the soil on which you were born. The opportunities are vast and the doors are just opening, don’t be left behind. This is my story and how it paid to believe in home, maybe it’ll inspire those who believe we won’t make it.

I completed high school in 1997 and got admitted to a London university for a degree in economics. My father agreed to pay the tuition on condition that I cover all living expenses on my own. So when I set foot on campus I only had money to last me 2 weeks, luckily I found a job in the first week at the student union pub. It was donkey work with minimum pay but I had no alternatives, so for 4 months I slaved under an a**hole boss. My break came through when I happened to hear one of my uncle’s friends discussing a quote he had received for painting his 2 bedroom house, it was an outrageous amount, but that was the going rate at the time. I offered to paint his house for a third of the price provided he buys me the paint and rollers, he agreed and that marked the beginning of my painting business. Word of mouth went round and within a month I had 3 more houses to paint allowing me to quit my lousy job and working for myself, regardless how messy it was.

Within three months I couldn’t manage to cope with my studies or completing houses in time, so I roped in my flat mate and together we were doing pretty well. We started advertising our services in local newspapers, dropped flyers in people’s homes and expanded our services to small repair jobs, and in 8 months we were a team of 11 students painting around 5 houses a week. By the end of my second year at university I had saved up around 20,000 pounds from the painting, but we got competition from other students who saw how successful we became and it was just a matter of time before our profit margins would be eroded. I started looking for new ideas, and along the way spotted an old rundown 2 bedroom house that was put up for sale for 45,000 pounds. I knew that such houses in good shape could easily fetch £60,000, I knew I could renovate the house for less than £5,000. But no bank would give a foreign student any loan so I went running to my uncle and sold him my idea, he agreed to take the mortgage on my behalf for a 20% cut in the profits.

We bought the house, renovated it and within 3 months the house sold for £66,000 and that marked my entry into the buy repair sell business. I kept on with this buying and selling till I graduated and ended up selling 6 houses in total. Upon graduation I got a £22,000 per year job offer at an investment bank, I worked with them for 3 months as my final house was in the process of being sold and immediately the sale went through I packed my bags and returned home. A lot of people thought I was an idiot to leave a well-paying job in the west to return to an uncertain future in Kenya but I didn’t care.

When I came back I had no idea what I was going to do, there is no way painting houses would sustain me and we didn’t have a vibrant property market for my buy repair sell scheme. I brainstormed for around 3 months with no good ideas coming through. One of my friends from UK relocated back and he rented an apartment on ngong road in a building called maki apartments, I went to visit him and that is when I knew what I’d be doing next. Maki apartments was an entire lifestyle package, I liked the architecture, the amenities and thought there is a huge potential market for such apartments.

I had come back with around £200,000, and in 2001 it gave me around 23 million shillings. Having set my mind on building apartments like maki, I started shopping for a piece of land and eventually bought half an acre in a westlands suburb for 11.5 million, completing the transaction, getting the plans and permission set me back another 1 million. I was going to build 2 blocks of 4 bedroom apartments each with 8 units, including swimming pool, gym and a nice garden, the construction quotes were coming at around 45 million but I only had around 10 million. So I started approaching banks but no one was willing to lend me any money and there were no early buyers at the time.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place, I decided to go it solo and instead of giving a full contract I negotiated a labour contract. The construction started and the money I had was pouring out fast, but luckily I found two buyers, one of them was the guy I bought my hardware supplies from and the other one was the sand and ballast supplier. I got 1.8 million for an apartment from them, but they promised to supply me all the materials required to finish the project and I would pay them once I finish selling. I was no longer stressed about the completion of the project so I focused my energy on marketing the apartments and sold of everything within 6 months of completion at an average price of 4.5 million. I got around 20 million from that project and have moved from one project to another ever since, around 4 months ago I sold my 650th unit.

Believing in this country has paid out way better than I can imagine, I hope some of you can do the same. I’m not saying come and buy property but look around you, see the opportunities and take them. There are quite a number of Kenyans working in Europe but how many times have you thought of going to see the flower auction at Aalsmeer and coming home to grow a few roses and sell them there. There are numerous Kenyan bankers working out in the west , but how far do you think you’ll climb up the corporate ladder, at home it’ll be twice as faster. I know so many brilliant professionals working for measly pay here at home, why not come together with a few colleagues and start your own firm.

Please believe in this country and pray politics doesn’t kill it, that’s all.


A wonderful and inspiring story. Well done mate.
We need more people like you - who do things rather than sit on the fence and complain

As you say, I hope and pray that politics don't mess it up.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#116 Posted : Monday, December 10, 2012 8:50:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@vj, yours is truly an inspiring story. In KE,we need,more role,models like you and not our greedy politicians!
@SufficientlyP
Rapudox
#117 Posted : Monday, December 10, 2012 6:04:13 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2010
Posts: 65
Location: Europe
@Vj...time & chance..That is the game changer...Very inspiring & much respect.
The story of your life has one tangential point with my life story....and that is when you move against the flow, when nobody understands your decisions & you are blessed to see, or feel those things that no one else sees or feels.
I think most Wazuans believe in Kenya, I do not think any fence sitter would have time to discuss in this forum. But we must never ever believe blindly. One weakness, I have discovered in being very successful in what you do...is that we reach a point, where we think it is easy & anybody could actually could do it. We forget the weary ones, we forget the ones who fall by the wayside , the ones who don't have that one uncle...or in my case those good inspiring friends. In maybe 100 Kenyans, there will be one Vj. The only way to change this ratio is to create a level fair playing field for all. That is why i kicked off the thread, to criticise this unfair market. Wishing or waiting for Recession doesn't mean we do not believe in Kenya.It is actually a very good partriotic thing to hope for. The real estate market in Nbi is a patient in dire need of correctional therapy, so that Nbi can be healthy again.And when the playing field is level and fair...then we will confidently be able to pin point the fence sitters and rebuke the naysayers.Till then, it remains a 0.01 situation for the majority of kenyans.
Nevertheless, these Vj stories need to be told and retold. I believe every man has his time & chance; and Kenya, if we remain vigilant, will roar & take her place,


murchr
#118 Posted : Monday, December 10, 2012 6:17:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
@Rapudox, Which market has ever been fair for late comers??? Mr. Market creates a new normal, thats all. There will never be a level playing field. Forget about that. Please think like an economist. Do u really believe we are at a recession?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Rapudox
#119 Posted : Monday, December 10, 2012 9:20:59 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2010
Posts: 65
Location: Europe
@Murchr...beg your pardon, i meant to say bubble burst. And yes, if we remain mature politically nxt yr, and the counties open up as planned, as well as infrastructure, improves at the current rate..then yes, i believe NBI market will crumble. Let me ask you and Vj sthing...if you were liquid enough, would you buy a 50M House in Karen???
murchr
#120 Posted : Monday, December 10, 2012 9:35:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Rapudox wrote:
@Murchr...beg your pardon, i meant to say bubble burst. And yes, if we remain mature politically nxt yr, and the counties open up as planned, as well as infrastructure, improves at the current rate..then yes, i believe NBI market will crumble. Let me ask you and Vj sthing...if you were liquid enough, would you buy a 50M House in Karen???


Keep waiting brother. Just do a research and find out when the county monies will be distributed. 2. What will the priorities of the govenors be? 3. If u live in Nrb, most prob u work there, will your company move? Are its peers moving? You havent seen anything yet.

Example: IBM wants to set up its campus in Karen/langata ( catholic Uni) The diasporans coming back to work, do u expect them to settle in Kisumu?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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