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Is Uganda's Umeme IPO a Bargain?
the deal
#21 Posted : Monday, December 03, 2012 11:11:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
647,000 shares traded on debut.

... of which 500,000 shares changed hands at UGX 275. Was that a block trade? Market Maker? Whats the link to a live stream of this market (price vs quantity vs trades)?

http://www.businessdaily.../-/13umumw/-/index.html UGX has already depreciated vs KES so for a Kenyan investor one is already in negative territory!

No forex losses when it lists at the NSE via introduction!

Uganda: Umeme Wins Again in Messy Electricity Sector


Just days after a parliamentary committee recommended termination of its contract over inflated claims, Umeme is set to again raise the cost of electricity to consumers

Ugandans have just days to Dec.07 when review of the application from the nation's sole electricity distributor, Umeme, ends and it gets another nod from the government to raise consumer tariffs
. The move is a direct snub to the latest report by the Members of Parliament recommending the cancellation of the contracts of power distributor, Umeme and generator, Eskom. It is also the latest example of confusion that haunts the electricity sector.

http://allafrica.com/sto...212030109.html?viewall=1
VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Monday, December 03, 2012 11:22:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
647,000 shares traded on debut.

... of which 500,000 shares changed hands at UGX 275. Was that a block trade? Market Maker? Whats the link to a live stream of this market (price vs quantity vs trades)?

http://www.businessdaily.../-/13umumw/-/index.html UGX has already depreciated vs KES so for a Kenyan investor one is already in negative territory!

No forex losses when it lists at the NSE via introduction!
Yes, there are forex losses. Do you need an explanation or will you do some reading then think through it logically? If you still do not understand then please let me know.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#23 Posted : Monday, December 03, 2012 11:29:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
647,000 shares traded on debut.

... of which 500,000 shares changed hands at UGX 275. Was that a block trade? Market Maker? Whats the link to a live stream of this market (price vs quantity vs trades)?

http://www.businessdaily.../-/13umumw/-/index.html UGX has already depreciated vs KES so for a Kenyan investor one is already in negative territory!

No forex losses when it lists at the NSE via introduction!
Yes, there are forex losses. Do you need an explanation or will you do some reading then think through it logically? If you still do not understand then please let me know.

Yeah just explain how those forex losses will be occurring without creating arbitrage opportunities?
the deal
#24 Posted : Monday, December 03, 2012 12:44:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Umeme share price closes 9% higher from shs275 to shs300. 400,000shares traded valued at shs120m
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Monday, December 03, 2012 12:54:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
647,000 shares traded on debut.

... of which 500,000 shares changed hands at UGX 275. Was that a block trade? Market Maker? Whats the link to a live stream of this market (price vs quantity vs trades)?

http://www.businessdaily.../-/13umumw/-/index.html UGX has already depreciated vs KES so for a Kenyan investor one is already in negative territory!

No forex losses when it lists at the NSE via introduction!
Yes, there are forex losses. Do you need an explanation or will you do some reading then think through it logically? If you still do not understand then please let me know.

Yeah just explain how those forex losses will be occurring without creating arbitrage opportunities?
Kenyans bought the Umeme shares in UGX. The conversion rate at the time vs today was in favor of the Ugandans. If a Kenyan bought Umeme at UGX 275 during the IPO but sold them at UGX 275 today, the net KES received would be less than what he paid. The UGX has depreciated vs the KES since the payment was made for the IPO.

Arbitrage: It is unlikely to make much (if anything) because the trading costs are very high. Suppose you as a Kenyan can buy on the USE (change KES to UGX, then pay commissions on the trade) then sell on the NSE (receive KES & pay commissions) means the differential has to be at least 5% just to break-even.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#26 Posted : Monday, December 03, 2012 9:48:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
“There was demand of close to eight million shares at prices of Ush300 plus at the close of trading,” said Mr Kitariko in a telephone interview.
African Alliance Uganda was the lead sponsoring broker for the IPO, which was oversubscribed by 36.9 per cent.

You can read the rest of the story here http://www.businessdaily.../-/q5o1d9z/-/index.html which is full of basic errors i.e the writer doesn't even know the listing price of Umeme!Shame on you Shame on you
mwekez@ji
#27 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 10:01:18 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@UGX 275 on a volume of a whooping 15,000,000 shares. Its literally the only share trading in USE Report link

Then read the fx loss here link
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 10:52:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
@UGX 275 on a volume of a whooping 15,000,000 shares. Its literally the only share trading in USE Report link

Then read the fx loss here link
So at the IPO price? And if you are a Kenyan, then it is a loss as the UGX has dropped vs the KES.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#29 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 11:08:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@UGX 275 on a volume of a whooping 15,000,000 shares. Its literally the only share trading in USE Report link

Then read the fx loss here link
So at the IPO price? And if you are a Kenyan, then it is a loss as the UGX has dropped vs the KES.

You too are getting desperateLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly the high volumes you are seeing are institutions snapping everything from Ugandan retail investors who received discounts on IPO shares because they were Umemes customers...they're already in the money...remember institutions never received their full allocation I thought I posted the IPO results hered'oh! d'oh! by the time this thing lists at the NSE my returns will be in double digits...demand outweighs supply at the moment!!! Just look at the top 10 shareholders...the likes of Standard Bank PLC...Allan Gray...IFC...NSSF of Uganda and some prominent hedge funds pop up...this is not Britak or Safcom!
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Wednesday, December 05, 2012 11:19:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@UGX 275 on a volume of a whooping 15,000,000 shares. Its literally the only share trading in USE Report link

Then read the fx loss here link
So at the IPO price? And if you are a Kenyan, then it is a loss as the UGX has dropped vs the KES.

You too are getting desperateLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly the high volumes you are seeing are institutions snapping everything from Ugandan retail investors who received discounts on IPO shares because they were Umemes customers...they're already in the money...remember institutions never received their full allocation I thought I posted the IPO results hered'oh! d'oh! by the time this thing lists at the NSE my returns will be in double digits...demand outweighs supply at the moment!!! Just look at the top 10 shareholders...the likes of Standard Bank PLC...Allan Gray...IFC...NSSF of Uganda and some prominent hedge funds pop up...this is not Britak or Safcom!
So what's you point? For Kenyan shareholders at the IPO price [at the time of the IPO], it is a net loss. They did not get the discount. The guys buying today at buying at a weaker UGX while the poor (retail) Kenyans are OUT OF THE MONEY.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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