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Is Uganda's Umeme IPO a Bargain?
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VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 2:00:51 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,380
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
Strong debut despite all the negative publicity...up 7.4% todayApplause Applause Applause
On what volume? I have seen this happen where brokers (especially the listing broker) 'collude' to keep the price high for 1-2 sessions but on low volume. Then the decline starts!

The value weighted average price (VWAP) is 275/-. The lowest price traded is 270 and highest is 295/-. Sad
So if the IPO price was 275 & the VWAP is 270... it means the 'real' price is LOWER than the IPO price?

And I understand at closing there were NO bids but plenty of offers!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#12 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 2:09:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
Strong debut despite all the negative publicity...up 7.4% todayApplause Applause Applause
On what volume? I have seen this happen where brokers (especially the listing broker) 'collude' to keep the price high for 1-2 sessions but on low volume. Then the decline starts!

The value weighted average price (VWAP) is 275/-. The lowest price traded is 270 and highest is 295/-. Sad
So if the IPO price was 275 & the VWAP is 270... it means the 'real' price is LOWER than the IPO price?

And I understand at closing there were NO bids but plenty of offers!

Not a flying start but it wont tank considering the number of East Africa institutional investors holding the stock
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VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 2:17:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,380
Location: Nairobi
@thedeal - For many EAC investors, it's already a loss. The UGX has depreciated quite a bit since the IPO. I have a feeling this stock will not move up much in the next 12 months. IMHO, on a KES-adjusted basis KPLC looks better.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#14 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 2:54:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal - For many EAC investors, it's already a loss. The UGX has depreciated quite a bit since the IPO. I have a feeling this stock will not move up much in the next 12 months. IMHO, on a KES-adjusted basis KPLC looks better.

Please explain? Investors have been dumping KPLC since announcement...its an advantage to some of us...i can now buy more units at a discounted price thank to the weak UGX...the offer prices today where crazy..way above 300..must be speculators who wanted to make a quick kill.
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VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 3:35:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,380
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal - For many EAC investors, it's already a loss. The UGX has depreciated quite a bit since the IPO. I have a feeling this stock will not move up much in the next 12 months. IMHO, on a KES-adjusted basis KPLC looks better.

Please explain? Investors have been dumping KPLC since announcement...its an advantage to some of us...i can now buy more units at a discounted price thank to the weak UGX...the offer prices today where crazy..way above 300..must be speculators who wanted to make a quick kill.
At today's KPLC prices. As for Umeme, I don't think it will deliver for 2 years unless the electricity biz in UG is liberalized.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#16 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 5:16:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
As at 29 November 2012
Shareholder No of shares % ownership
1 Umeme Holdings Limited 975,748,705 60%
2 National Social Security Fund 91,234,700 6%
3 Dazbog Holdings EFC Limited 52,975,000 3%
4 Standard Bank Plc 49,000,000 3%
5 International Finance Corporation 45,220,900 3%
6 Dazbog Holdings BFC Limited 36,400,000 2%
7 Dazbog Holdings AFC Limited 31,850,000 2%
8 Everest Capital Frontier Markets Fund 28,080,000 2%
9 Utilico Emerging Markets Limited 19,000,000 1%
10 Allan Gray Africa Equity (Rand) Fund 17,700,000 1%
Sub-total top 10 shareholders 1,347,209,305 83%
Total shares in issue 1,623,878,005 100%
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mwekez@ji
#17 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 7:28:06 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Ati expected to list in NSE in Mid Dec http://www.act.is/PressRelease/161
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the deal
#18 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 9:09:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
647,000 shares traded on debut.
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mwekez@ji
#19 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 10:16:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
647,000 shares traded on debut.


... of which 500,000 shares changed hands at UGX 275. Was that a block trade? Market Maker? Whats the link to a live stream of this market (price vs quantity vs trades)?
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VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Monday, December 03, 2012 12:21:01 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,380
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
647,000 shares traded on debut.

... of which 500,000 shares changed hands at UGX 275. Was that a block trade? Market Maker? Whats the link to a live stream of this market (price vs quantity vs trades)?

http://www.businessdaily.../-/13umumw/-/index.html UGX has already depreciated vs KES so for a Kenyan investor one is already in negative territory!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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