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Is Uganda's Umeme IPO a Bargain?
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hooverrl
#1 Posted : Tuesday, October 23, 2012 8:19:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2006
Posts: 52
Location: USA
Hello, everyone!

I thought you might be interested in this brief analysis of the Umeme IPO that Mika Davis and Mark Muhumuza helped me out with.

Is the Umeme IPO a Bargain?

What are your thoughts on the IPO? Will you be participating? Waiting for it to list on the NSE? Or not at all interested in the stock?

Happy Investing!
Ryan
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FUNKY
#2 Posted : Wednesday, October 24, 2012 2:26:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
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young
#3 Posted : Wednesday, October 24, 2012 2:36:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria

As a Diasporian, avoid the typical IPO euphoria !!! That is take position after it is listed (both NSE & USE) to avoid problem of over-subscription / refund.
Thee shares will easily be available in the secondary market after listing.

Besides from my analysis, the IPO price is not a fair value at 275 UGX per share (9.5 Ksh) judging from their previous performance. It may equally go the way of Kengen, Safaricom and others. My Fair Price estimate is 185 UGX about 6.2 Ksh.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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guru267
#4 Posted : Wednesday, October 24, 2012 4:17:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
young wrote:
My Fair Price estimate is 185 UGX about 6.2 Ksh.


i agree with this though it could go as low as 150UGX about 5kshs!

Avoid avoid avoid! The numbers never lie and they don't look good...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwekez@ji
#5 Posted : Thursday, October 25, 2012 9:23:01 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Total rip off by Actis! #AVOID
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Kausha
#6 Posted : Thursday, October 25, 2012 12:06:55 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
additionally Umeme is not very far from City Council of Nairobi in corporate reputation terms. Uganda has had massive and insane load shedding for several years now. Umeme has faired poorly as well. The IPP's hardly get paid for Ssevo and have in some instances in the past shut down the power plants until they are paid. In short Uganda's power sector as it stands is very shambolic and very susceptible to politics of the day.
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Kaffir
#7 Posted : Thursday, November 08, 2012 6:40:23 PM
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Joined: 5/8/2008
Posts: 77
Preliminary results show at least a 35% over subscription
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the deal
#8 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 12:18:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Strong debut despite all the negative publicity...up 7.4% todayApplause Applause Applause
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VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 12:32:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Strong debut despite all the negative publicity...up 7.4% todayApplause Applause Applause
On what volume? I have seen this happen where brokers (especially the listing broker) 'collude' to keep the price high for 1-2 sessions but on low volume. Then the decline starts!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#10 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 1:48:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
Strong debut despite all the negative publicity...up 7.4% todayApplause Applause Applause
On what volume? I have seen this happen where brokers (especially the listing broker) 'collude' to keep the price high for 1-2 sessions but on low volume. Then the decline starts!

The value weighted average price (VWAP) is 275/-. The lowest price traded is 270 and highest is 295/-. Sad
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