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Waiting to exhale on this Nairobi City!!!!
ChessMaster
#81 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 7:00:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
One the EROI rate(energy return on investment) is going down.We're spending more oil and money to get fewer and fewer barrels. Global demand of oil is going to surpass global supply. What good will having the largest reserve of water do if we already wasted and polluted the water we had? What has arable land done for Africa as it stands. How will we use it if we don't have water or we are building structures over it? Species going extinct does matter,an ecosystem balances works like that. If bees start dying out we will soon follow. Herbet Spencer is the one who coined the phrase survival of the fittest. Darwin meant only a species that better adapts itself to its environment has a better chance of survival. Survival of the fittest justifies what Hitler had intended,to do away with inferior races. We are not animals,we're humans.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
murchr
#82 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 7:11:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ChessMaster wrote:
One the EROI rate(energy return on investment) is going down.We're spending more oil and money to get fewer and fewer barrels. Global demand of oil is going to surpass global supply. What good will having the largest reserve of water do if we already wasted and polluted the water we had? What has arable land done for Africa as it stands. How will we use it if we don't have water or we are building structures over it? Species going extinct does matter,an ecosystem balances works like that. If bees start dying out we will soon follow. Herbet Spencer is the one who coined the phrase survival of the fittest. Darwin meant only a species that better adapts itself to its environment has a better chance of survival. Survival of the fittest justifies what Hitler had intended,to do away with inferior races. We are not
animals,we're humans.


My friend....Whats the issue...read the water report released by the UN first it seems your commenting without putting matters in thought. Once a upon a time there lived a species in the name of dinosaurs, they dont exist now. On the underlined..history is always good to guide one in the future. It certainly doesnt hurt having enough water and land does it.?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
ChessMaster
#83 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 7:30:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
There is no problem.I was just addressing the issue of the rise of Africa considering the state of resources. It doesn't hurt to have land and water.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
Seles83
#84 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 8:47:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/9/2007
Posts: 288
Location: OZ
As an African you have below options:

-Complain
-Witness
-Participate
-Ignore..

Choose your position and be happy with it...after all its all vanity upon Vanity!!
More monies, more problems...
Rapudox
#85 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 12:20:47 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/30/2010
Posts: 65
Location: Europe
I think as wazuans we all believe in Africa.
Facts:
1) Yes, there is a transfer of wealth towards
2) yes, the standards of living in africa will rise
BUT just the transfer of wealth alone doesnt guarantee anything, if you are just a consumer population. FDI is mobile, evasive and means nothing if the systems dont work and there is no intelligent local framework. I believe Congo & Naija have had their fair share of FDI.
The only change that will sustain africa, is a radical mindset change.
We still lack collective intelligence. Proof: Tribalism, Construction of estates in arable areas like Kiambu etc in a semi-arid country & Sonko!
@ Seles , the big malls, big cars...just confirm that we are pure consumers...& when the wealth transfer comes, we shall be turned into cheap global manual labourers á la Asia. What use will all that oil, water etc be, if we don't even have the local capacity to pump it. And of course, the big players like UK, Germany are sitting comfy smoking cigars, with no idea that Africa is about to take off??
Before we even think of China, let us study India very closely.... Pockets of prosperity here & there will come to Africa, but will they fundamentally change the continent with the current mental status quo?....I dont think so. I say, India, again. That is where, we may be heading.
@Seles...Proof of mentality problem in Africa = "after all its all vanity upon Vanity!!...this is what am talking about. Today it is vanity for us, for our Kids & grandkids it is reality.
Pesa Nane
#86 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 12:48:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Rapudox wrote:

We still lack collective intelligence. Proof: Tribalism, Construction of estates in arable areas like Kiambu etc in a semi-arid country & Sonko!

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#87 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 2:16:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Very informative thread this.
Whether we go into a bubble & whether it bursts is a non issue. The issue is that time & chance happen to us all. Make hay while the sun shines.
Happy investing!
@SufficientlyP
ChessMaster
#88 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 3:36:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Rapudox wrote:
I think as wazuans we all believe in Africa.
Facts:
1) Yes, there is a transfer of wealth towards
2) yes, the standards of living in africa will rise
BUT just the transfer of wealth alone doesnt guarantee anything, if you are just a consumer population. FDI is mobile, evasive and means nothing if the systems dont work and there is no intelligent local framework. I believe Congo & Naija have had their fair share of FDI.
The only change that will sustain africa, is a radical mindset change.
We still lack collective intelligence. Proof: Tribalism, Construction of estates in arable areas like Kiambu etc in a semi-arid country & Sonko! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
@ Seles , the big malls, big cars...just confirm that we are pure consumers...& when the wealth transfer comes, we shall be turned into cheap global manual labourers á la Asia. What use will all that oil, water etc be, if we don't even have the local capacity to pump it. And of course, the big players like UK, Germany are sitting comfy smoking cigars, with no idea that Africa is about to take off??
Before we even think of China, let us study India very closely.... Pockets of prosperity here & there will come to Africa, but will they fundamentally change the continent with the current mental status quo?....I dont think so. I say, India, again. That is where, we may be heading.
@Seles...Proof of mentality problem in Africa = "after all its all vanity upon Vanity!!...this is what am talking about. Today it is vanity for us, for our Kids & grandkids it is reality.

Uncertainty is certain.Let go
sentinel prime
#89 Posted : Friday, November 30, 2012 10:58:52 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/12/2012
Posts: 92
so you people are non believers, talking about prosperity ....the Bible talks of terrible famine and pestilence across africa.

our agricultural practices are still extremely primitive .
Pesa Nane
#90 Posted : Saturday, December 01, 2012 12:18:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

Whether we go into a bubble & whether it bursts is a non issue. The issue is that time & chance happen to us all. Make hay while the sun shines.
Happy investing!

Very true. But be sure to get your seat when the music stops!:d/ :d/ Sad{|= Sad{|=
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
murchr
#91 Posted : Saturday, December 01, 2012 12:42:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
sentinel prime wrote:
so you people are non believers, talking about prosperity ....the Bible talks of terrible famine and pestilence across africa.our agricultural practices are still extremely primitive .


In wazua we quote our sources. weka hio verse hapa.

Na tuombee
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
dunkang
#92 Posted : Saturday, December 01, 2012 6:25:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Quote:
A preliminary investigation by the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau finds that there are about 3.81 million vacant houses in Beijing, the Beijing Times reports


http://www.china.org.cn/...06/content_25581684.htm

HOW I WISH THIS IS HURLINGHAM, NAIROBI
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Vj
#93 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 3:55:44 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/6/2010
Posts: 97
Location: nairobi, kenya
Pesa Nane wrote:
Rapudox wrote:
@Pesa Nane..Word!

Beware:
Quote:
The CBK third quarter report indicates that real estate borrowers contributed highest to the number of non-performing loans over the third quarter when gross non-performing loans increased by 5.6 per cent to Sh60.74 billion in September 2012, from Sh57.5 billion in June 2012."
And that is just a tip of the iceberg because as far as these 'cash buyers' are concerned
Quote:
"Prof Ndung’u said the fear is that most people might be taking personal loans to finance housing projects."
SOURCE


Always verify facts sourced from Kenyan media. The highest number of non-performing loans were not from the real estate sector and the total non-performing loans in the real estate sector are almost a tenth of the figure mentioned. And it doesn’t matter which type of loan you use to finance a project, the reality is that you will not get a single cent more than what you deserve. And its common sense that unsecured personal loans cannot finance a real estate project.

From CBK: http://tiny.cc/dddsow

Developers cannot be sustained by credit and the 10% off plan deposit as you mention, there is no bank in Kenya that gives 90% finance, something must come out of the developers pocket. And there are quite a number of cash rich developers who don’t even borrow a penny, there is a developer who completed a 2 billion shilling project in parklands without a single penny borrowed. And if these guys see projects struggling midway they’ll buy into them without even thinking twice if the price is right.

Buying to flip is a reality in the lower end of the market i.e 4-8 million shilling units, but its not significant to kill an entire project. This is because such projects usually offer more than 100 units and at least 70% of the homes are bought by people who intend to live in them or rent them. I have not done many low cost projects but from the few I have done, this is what I have observed.

The cash buyers I deal with pay for the entire unit in cash and not deposits for 5 units, most of them are businessmen, consultants and professionals with a 7 figure income.

Anyway we can argue all day but at the end of the day you can’t create a recession and I can’t stop it if it comes.
Before you can be be old and wise, you must first be young and stupid.
Vj
#94 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 3:59:56 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/6/2010
Posts: 97
Location: nairobi, kenya
Arguments aside I have one request: please believe in the soil on which you were born. The opportunities are vast and the doors are just opening, don’t be left behind. This is my story and how it paid to believe in home, maybe it’ll inspire those who believe we won’t make it.

I completed high school in 1997 and got admitted to a London university for a degree in economics. My father agreed to pay the tuition on condition that I cover all living expenses on my own. So when I set foot on campus I only had money to last me 2 weeks, luckily I found a job in the first week at the student union pub. It was donkey work with minimum pay but I had no alternatives, so for 4 months I slaved under an a**hole boss. My break came through when I happened to hear one of my uncle’s friends discussing a quote he had received for painting his 2 bedroom house, it was an outrageous amount, but that was the going rate at the time. I offered to paint his house for a third of the price provided he buys me the paint and rollers, he agreed and that marked the beginning of my painting business. Word of mouth went round and within a month I had 3 more houses to paint allowing me to quit my lousy job and working for myself, regardless how messy it was.

Within three months I couldn’t manage to cope with my studies or completing houses in time, so I roped in my flat mate and together we were doing pretty well. We started advertising our services in local newspapers, dropped flyers in people’s homes and expanded our services to small repair jobs, and in 8 months we were a team of 11 students painting around 5 houses a week. By the end of my second year at university I had saved up around 20,000 pounds from the painting, but we got competition from other students who saw how successful we became and it was just a matter of time before our profit margins would be eroded. I started looking for new ideas, and along the way spotted an old rundown 2 bedroom house that was put up for sale for 45,000 pounds. I knew that such houses in good shape could easily fetch £60,000, I knew I could renovate the house for less than £5,000. But no bank would give a foreign student any loan so I went running to my uncle and sold him my idea, he agreed to take the mortgage on my behalf for a 20% cut in the profits.

We bought the house, renovated it and within 3 months the house sold for £66,000 and that marked my entry into the buy repair sell business. I kept on with this buying and selling till I graduated and ended up selling 6 houses in total. Upon graduation I got a £22,000 per year job offer at an investment bank, I worked with them for 3 months as my final house was in the process of being sold and immediately the sale went through I packed my bags and returned home. A lot of people thought I was an idiot to leave a well-paying job in the west to return to an uncertain future in Kenya but I didn’t care.

When I came back I had no idea what I was going to do, there is no way painting houses would sustain me and we didn’t have a vibrant property market for my buy repair sell scheme. I brainstormed for around 3 months with no good ideas coming through. One of my friends from UK relocated back and he rented an apartment on ngong road in a building called maki apartments, I went to visit him and that is when I knew what I’d be doing next. Maki apartments was an entire lifestyle package, I liked the architecture, the amenities and thought there is a huge potential market for such apartments.

I had come back with around £200,000, and in 2001 it gave me around 23 million shillings. Having set my mind on building apartments like maki, I started shopping for a piece of land and eventually bought half an acre in a westlands suburb for 11.5 million, completing the transaction, getting the plans and permission set me back another 1 million. I was going to build 2 blocks of 4 bedroom apartments each with 8 units, including swimming pool, gym and a nice garden, the construction quotes were coming at around 45 million but I only had around 10 million. So I started approaching banks but no one was willing to lend me any money and there were no early buyers at the time.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place, I decided to go it solo and instead of giving a full contract I negotiated a labour contract. The construction started and the money I had was pouring out fast, but luckily I found two buyers, one of them was the guy I bought my hardware supplies from and the other one was the sand and ballast supplier. I got 1.8 million for an apartment from them, but they promised to supply me all the materials required to finish the project and I would pay them once I finish selling. I was no longer stressed about the completion of the project so I focused my energy on marketing the apartments and sold of everything within 6 months of completion at an average price of 4.5 million. I got around 20 million from that project and have moved from one project to another ever since, around 4 months ago I sold my 650th unit.

Believing in this country has paid out way better than I can imagine, I hope some of you can do the same. I’m not saying come and buy property but look around you, see the opportunities and take them. There are quite a number of Kenyans working in Europe but how many times have you thought of going to see the flower auction at Aalsmeer and coming home to grow a few roses and sell them there. There are numerous Kenyan bankers working out in the west , but how far do you think you’ll climb up the corporate ladder, at home it’ll be twice as faster. I know so many brilliant professionals working for measly pay here at home, why not come together with a few colleagues and start your own firm.

Please believe in this country and pray politics doesn’t kill it, that’s all.
Before you can be be old and wise, you must first be young and stupid.
jaggernaut
#95 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 4:47:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/9/2008
Posts: 5,389
@vj - very inspiring story. Did you say 650th unit? How many billions are those?
digitek1
#96 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 5:31:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/3/2010
Posts: 1,797
Location: Kenya
Vj wrote:
Arguments aside I have one request: please believe in the soil on which you were born. The opportunities are vast and the doors are just opening, don’t be left behind. This is my story and how it paid to believe in home, maybe it’ll inspire those who believe we won’t make it.

I completed high school in 1997 and got admitted to a London university for a degree in economics. My father agreed to pay the tuition on condition that I cover all living expenses on my own. So when I set foot on campus I only had money to last me 2 weeks, luckily I found a job in the first week at the student union pub. It was donkey work with minimum pay but I had no alternatives, so for 4 months I slaved under an a**hole boss. My break came through when I happened to hear one of my uncle’s friends discussing a quote he had received for painting his 2 bedroom house, it was an outrageous amount, but that was the going rate at the time. I offered to paint his house for a third of the price provided he buys me the paint and rollers, he agreed and that marked the beginning of my painting business. Word of mouth went round and within a month I had 3 more houses to paint allowing me to quit my lousy job and working for myself, regardless how messy it was.

Within three months I couldn’t manage to cope with my studies or completing houses in time, so I roped in my flat mate and together we were doing pretty well. We started advertising our services in local newspapers, dropped flyers in people’s homes and expanded our services to small repair jobs, and in 8 months we were a team of 11 students painting around 5 houses a week. By the end of my second year at university I had saved up around 20,000 pounds from the painting, but we got competition from other students who saw how successful we became and it was just a matter of time before our profit margins would be eroded. I started looking for new ideas, and along the way spotted an old rundown 2 bedroom house that was put up for sale for 45,000 pounds. I knew that such houses in good shape could easily fetch £60,000, I knew I could renovate the house for less than £5,000. But no bank would give a foreign student any loan so I went running to my uncle and sold him my idea, he agreed to take the mortgage on my behalf for a 20% cut in the profits.

We bought the house, renovated it and within 3 months the house sold for £66,000 and that marked my entry into the buy repair sell business. I kept on with this buying and selling till I graduated and ended up selling 6 houses in total. Upon graduation I got a £22,000 per year job offer at an investment bank, I worked with them for 3 months as my final house was in the process of being sold and immediately the sale went through I packed my bags and returned home. A lot of people thought I was an idiot to leave a well-paying job in the west to return to an uncertain future in Kenya but I didn’t care.

When I came back I had no idea what I was going to do, there is no way painting houses would sustain me and we didn’t have a vibrant property market for my buy repair sell scheme. I brainstormed for around 3 months with no good ideas coming through. One of my friends from UK relocated back and he rented an apartment on ngong road in a building called maki apartments, I went to visit him and that is when I knew what I’d be doing next. Maki apartments was an entire lifestyle package, I liked the architecture, the amenities and thought there is a huge potential market for such apartments.

I had come back with around £200,000, and in 2001 it gave me around 23 million shillings. Having set my mind on building apartments like maki, I started shopping for a piece of land and eventually bought half an acre in a westlands suburb for 11.5 million, completing the transaction, getting the plans and permission set me back another 1 million. I was going to build 2 blocks of 4 bedroom apartments each with 8 units, including swimming pool, gym and a nice garden, the construction quotes were coming at around 45 million but I only had around 10 million. So I started approaching banks but no one was willing to lend me any money and there were no early buyers at the time.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place, I decided to go it solo and instead of giving a full contract I negotiated a labour contract. The construction started and the money I had was pouring out fast, but luckily I found two buyers, one of them was the guy I bought my hardware supplies from and the other one was the sand and ballast supplier. I got 1.8 million for an apartment from them, but they promised to supply me all the materials required to finish the project and I would pay them once I finish selling. I was no longer stressed about the completion of the project so I focused my energy on marketing the apartments and sold of everything within 6 months of completion at an average price of 4.5 million. I got around 20 million from that project and have moved from one project to another ever since, around 4 months ago I sold my 650th unit.

Believing in this country has paid out way better than I can imagine, I hope some of you can do the same.

Please believe in this country and pray politics doesn’t kill it, that’s all.
Applause Applause
I may be wrong..but then I could be right
kaifastus
#97 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 6:09:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
Iam a young investor in real estate and iam very inspired by you story VJ. i have ventured in low cost rentals in nakuru. I just bought a piece of land (80X40)for 1.5m in white house estate nakuru where i intend to to put my biggest project so far.a 3 storey building of one bedroom rentals units.
The fears of a real estate bubble are here with us. Nobody knows when or where..Econometric techniques here only explain why the event happen but predicting when is a matter of guesswork.
jaykay
#98 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 6:43:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/6/2009
Posts: 78
@vky: Most of the wazuans miss the IMPORTANT part of your life story.
Being prepared-you had the savings of Ksh 23M and the vision of what to do.Plus, you took the risk when it wasn't all clear.
The preparation,risk taking and vision are the building blocks of success in any business venture.From Muguku,Merali to James Mwangi....
Unfortunately, people will only read your story and go..Real estate will make me a millionaire.
murchr
#99 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 6:54:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
The first time Vj shared his success on the thread..."How I made my 1st Million" there was another thread running on "...the housing bubble.." I guess people are still waiting for the bubble to be inflated, while others are waiting for it to burst.

Please, don compare Nrb to beijing because Nrb is nowhere close to lookin like guangzhou. The country is about to take off
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Jamani
#100 Posted : Tuesday, December 04, 2012 7:06:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Vj-- very inspiring... enough respect VJ
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