from 50M to 100M in 15 years? Yes, with inflation at 35% annual. Remember Zimbabwe bread jumped from 25$ to Millions of $ in less than 2 years.

But on a serious note, the housing prices are sick. This i blame on banks on overvalueing (spelling) trash.

the problem with young people is that you want instant coffee.
nobody started out in those neighbourhoods unless they inherited. youve got to move up the ladder
you can take the 20 % mortgage but you dont have to wait for 20 yrs to pay. take a cheaper house pay off faster sell it use that as a deposit for a more expensive home and walla you are in karen

devolution next year will lead to a fall in land prices around Nairobi!..

I also think improvements on the transportation system will help in this

Devolution will create the "Rundas" and "Karens" of the various counties. The demand of land in Nrb will continue to rise tho not at rapidly as it is now. I dont think people will want to instantly move to the counties. As long as people will want to live and work in the city, the demand of land and housing will still go up. Remember its the govt devolving.

i hope You are aware that there will be more than 6 cities in Kenya come 2030 so although Nairobi will still be the capital a lot of Kenyans will make their millions elsewhere!

Just look at the US.. Although we have New York we still have many Americans preferring to live comfortably elsewhere!

Nairobi is in the middle of a crazy land speculation, where the main driving factor of buying property is that the price will keep on rising and rising forever. Before the speculation started, most people were simply buying a home to live in with their family, not investing to make super profits or for fear that real estate prices would be crazily high just a couple of months down the line.

Reading Wazua, what’s the most common answer to someone who has a bit of money on the side and wants to invest? Land. Buy land, do nothing at all and you’ll make tons of money in a few years when you flip it. At least in stocks, you have the management trying to make money by producing something yet in land, what’s being produced to raise the value sky-high? The demand. So what’s driving the demand?

In a way, the land speculation fueling this fake market upsurge is like a pyramid scheme, where the early entrants (Villacare, Suraya, etc) made a killing and copycats are surging along hoping to pull in even more suckers to buy overpriced properties and overvalued land with negative yields promising them super appreciation within just a couple of years. Yet sooner rather than later the newcomers will start dwindling (if they haven’t already) when the entry prices become just too high for the common struggling (wo)man to afford and the whole game will come tumbling down. It’s really inevitable.

Every single economy has housing bubbles yet here we act as if we’re completely immune. The Japanese, with a much stronger economy, industry, and more disposable income for their citizens, suffered a massive real estate crash in 1990 when they started speculating in real estate, driving real estate prices to the stratosphere, exactly as we’re doing.

unfortunately my friend something called inflation can make that house going for 50M today worth 150M in 15 years.You have to remember that prices were also suppressed in nairobi for more than 20 yrs so they exploded in the last 10 years and they have a tendency to overshoot also.i expect them to cool off at some point but not to crash..I wouldn't chase the market right here, if you are able to and have the money always buy value in real estate.Europe and US today offer you a 50%+ discount compared to nairobi.

What you have described here is that the prices are rising due to speculation. In other words-the greater fool theory- and there will come a time when there are no fools to sell to anymore.

You cited the Japanese economy and bubble, can Kenya compare to Japan? Compare Japs demographics and Kenyas even in 1990..the majority of japanese are over 40 to 60 years of age. Making Japan the oldest country in the world. Their market just got saturated, there was no one to buy the houses. Infact now, the country has started recruiting new immigrants to work and live there and granting citizenships to japs who were not born in japan.
In as much as the greater fool theory may be at play, we need to look at other factors..we have a rising economy, a young population which is growing very fast, and yes inflation. Tho those who want to venture in this real estate should focus on the lower middle income segment, we aint making so many millionaires.

In the long term (2030) some towns like Nakuru, Mombasa, eldoret & kisumu would have transformed to cities with infrastructure equaling that in Nairobi!

Top employers may still have their HQs in Nairobi but with the right infrastructure will be willing/forced to expand to other cities! Housing developments will also be in plenty.. (GM in the USA has factories spread around the country some in small towns)

In any game there is a winner & a loser! This demographic change is inevitable and the likely loser is Nairobi real estate and the winner will be real estate in the counties!

an acre in Kericho is going for 500k while in Lamu an acre goes for 200k... The future possible returns from these locations make Nairobi look like childsplay!