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UAP ISSUE
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phylo
#1 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 12:32:07 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 11/8/2012
Posts: 6
HI WAZUA. what dou think guys of the UAP offer of Ksh 60 per share and a MINIMUM OF 2000 share that translate to ksh 120,000.
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jerry
#2 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 12:47:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Let's get the IM first.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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BGL
#3 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 12:58:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/11/2009
Posts: 1,223
jerry wrote:
Let's get the IM first.


IM ilitokelezea jana

http://www.uap-group.com/po/images/prospectus.pdf
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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jerry
#4 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 3:04:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
BGL wrote:
[quote=jerry]Let's get the IM first.


IM ilitokelezea jana

http://www.uap-group.com/po/images/prospectus.pdf[/quote]
Ahsante.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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guru267
#5 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 3:06:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
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Mainat
#6 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 8:20:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
I am a fan of the otc so I had a quick look at the UAP vs Jubilee which I believe is a peer.

Based on 2011,
P/E is 8.2 vs ~5 for Jubilee which operates in a more liquid market. There is also over-performance on the year of listing. The upside is that you'll have 12 months to figure out if the numbers are good before the shares can even be listed at the NSE.
Would I buy? I like otc
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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mwekez@ji
#7 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 10:48:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Mainat wrote:
I am a fan of the otc so I had a quick look at the UAP vs Jubilee which I believe is a peer.

Based on 2011,
P/E is 8.2 vs ~5 for Jubilee which operates in a more liquid market. There is also over-performance on the year of listing. The upside is that you'll have 12 months to figure out if the numbers are good before the shares can even be listed at the NSE.
Would I buy? I like otc


@Mainat, are the returns of trading in OTC better than in NSE? I notice transaction costs in OTC are about same as those in NSE but the settlement period in OTC stretches to 2 months.

On UAP, Centum (an anchor shareholder) refused to sign lock up agreement meaning they plan to offload their holding in OTC. Other anchor shareholders have signed lock up for only 50% of their holding (page 39 of IM). Caution is called for here
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mwekez@ji
#8 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 11:18:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
UAP legal and operating structure is quite complex (page 59 of IM). Many subsidiaries registered in Mauritius and subsequently owning and being owned by other subsidiaries. What gives?
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mwekez@ji
#9 Posted : Thursday, November 15, 2012 11:48:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Transcentury dint do well in OTC. >>> Graph of OTC Trades starting Apr 2009 - Jun 2011

Which shares have done/are doing well in OTC?
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hisah
#10 Posted : Friday, November 16, 2012 3:44:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Transcentury dint do well in OTC. >>> Graph of OTC Trades starting Apr 2009 - Jun 2011

Which shares have done/are doing well in OTC?

At 32x, the stock’s forward PE is relatively high which we believe corresponds to the high growth potential owing to sector prospective growth.

We see improvements in earnings driven by top‐line growth in its power business which leads us to endorse a BUY recommendation based on a fair value price of KES 68.10. --> Buy reco issued by Dyer & Blair back in July 2011.


Why are we selling UAPHL shares to the public?

1. As per the IM section 7.4.1 -> The main objective of the Public Offer is to enhance local equity participation in UAPHL and is not to raise capital for investments or expansion.However, the capital being raised by UAPHL from the Public Offer will be used in conjunction with the KES 4,552,099,000 which UAPHL has already received from the PE Investments, together with other debt financing and retained earnings to fund UAPHL’s growth and regional expansion strategy.

2. As per the IM section 6 -> Having already successfully raised approx. KES 4.6 billion through the PE Transactions, we confirm that in our opinion the additional capital of KES 750 million being raised by UAPHL through this Public Offer will, on a combined basis, be adequate for UAPHL’s requirements for the foreseeable future.

Those 2 statements are conflicting big time! And just like TCL we have the issue of convertible bond which will obviously diluted the EPS.

After reading the UAP IM a number of things that @Kausha mentioned are laid bare -> http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=333809#post333809

There's better value in JHL than UAP.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, November 16, 2012 3:46 PM | Reason: Not specified
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