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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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FUNKY
#1731 Posted : Monday, November 05, 2012 4:57:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
The Bourse opened the week with a total of 13M shares valued at KSh.316M transacted against Ksh.589M on 29M shares posted last Friday.

The NSE 20 Share Index shed 1.21 points to stand at 4124.53.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.14 points to stand at 91.44.

FTSE NSE Kenya 15 Index gained 0.27 points to stand at 122.14.
FTSE NSE Kenya 25 Index gained 0.23 points to stand at 124.76.
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hisah
#1732 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 2:56:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. what would u say about KPLC technicals. high trades before results and rally followed by higher trades at what to me looks like an organised price. demand from virtually nowhere comes and sweeps supply a 18.50. then disappears rinse and repeat since Monday.

The div is very mean. Selling is increasing, which was not the case before results announcement. Near term target for bulls is 20/- but this won't be supported as the div pay is very mean. Likely to test 16.80 - 17.40 before trying to reach 20/-

If I was a fund rotating, I'd rather be in Kengen than KPLC.

The selling continues (foreigners selling silently). Day low of 17.60/- with VWAP @ 18.15/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 2:58 PM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#1733 Posted : Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:53:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. what would u say about KPLC technicals. high trades before results and rally followed by higher trades at what to me looks like an organised price. demand from virtually nowhere comes and sweeps supply a 18.50. then disappears rinse and repeat since Monday.

The div is very mean. Selling is increasing, which was not the case before results announcement. Near term target for bulls is 20/- but this won't be supported as the div pay is very mean. Likely to test 16.80 - 17.40 before trying to reach 20/-

If I was a fund rotating, I'd rather be in Kengen than KPLC.

The selling continues (foreigners selling silently). Day low of 17.60/- with VWAP @ 18.15/-


Its happening. If you ask me, the big boys are already out. Those high turnovers we have being seeing were not for nothing. That strong demand when it disappears, this share will take a plunge.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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FUNKY
#1734 Posted : Friday, November 09, 2012 5:10:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
Week on week, turnover declined to KSh.1.8bn from KSh.2.9bn posted the previous week, the number of shares traded stood at 122M against 125M the previous week.

The NSE 20 Share Index was up 0.82% during the week to stand at 4159.73 points.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.80% during the week to settle at 92.94 points.

FTSE NSE Kenya 15 Index was up 2.51 points during the week to stand at 124.38.
FTSE NSE Kenya 25 Index was up 2.30 points during the week to stand at 126.83.
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FUNKY
#1735 Posted: : Monday, November 12, 2012 4:41:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
The Bourse opened the week with a total of 27M shares valued at KSh.315M, up from KSh.286M on a volume of 22M shares posted last Friday.

The NSE 20 Share Index shed 7.62 points to stand at 4152.11.
All Share Index (NASI) shed 0.03 points to stand at 92.91.

FTSE NSE Kenya 15 Index eased 1.59 points to settle at 122.79.
FTSE NSE Kenya 25 Index eased 1.44 points to settle at 125.39.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1736 Posted : Monday, November 12, 2012 5:20:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Sad
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#1737 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 3:00:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 too is technically overheated. I expect profit taking to take place in Dec.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#1738 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 3:38:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
When I started this thread, I promised to indicate when NSE will be headed for a bullish period. That time has come!? But not via the NSE chart, but the MSCI Kenya index chart. Very hidden from Wanjikus Sad

But now Wanjikus know smile

Partial recovery happened in Apr 2012 when the falling trendline that marked the 2011 bear trend was broken. In the last 2 months the buy volume has been increasing to the level where foreigners have pumped in 9 billion as net buyers since the start of 2012. A few days ago EABL shares churned more than 1 billion in turnover trading around 0.84% of the share float!

Other factors boosting the calf to mature into a bull: -
- CBK's liquidity boost via CBR sizable rate cut after a nasty liquidity squeeze due to crazy inflation.
- ECB has decided they won't let the euro fold so will do whatever it takes with no time limit!
- US Fed has decided to inject USD into the US economy until umemployment reaches 6% and below levels. The program has no time limit! So we are facing 3 liquidity boost turbo thrusters...
- Fundamentally - hydrocarbon revenues are coming online in future and KE will soon shift from net importer to exporter effectively dealing with the stubborn trade deficit.

Now presenting the chart - MSCI Kenya (MXKE) - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MXKE:IND/chart





Fellow TA fans (@deal, @sparkly et al) what do you think? Note this is a 5yr chart and the falling trendline has been broken with the index closing above it for the first time in 5yrs since the top was put in at 1210 on Jun 5 2008.

I really hope this mbus can delay a bit in order to source more funds for the coming bull run...

Update - anyone also notice the inverted H&S pattern forming... Powerful upside coming up!


This was presented on Sept 14 2012. Then MSCI Kenya index was @1027.62 and by yesterday it has since rallied 8.31% to close at 1113.06. This index too is technically overheated, so a dip is in order. The encouraging bit is at this level it is above 2011 highs and pending to test the high of June 2008 @1210.21.

So short term we will see a dip across all indices (NSE20, NASI, FTSE KE (15 & 25) as well as MSCI Kenya) as we head into the festives. Medium term the bull is still intact after 4000 resistance was overcome. Next target is 4400 for NSE20 and from here the bulls gain more strength.

Hoping for all the best esp KE elections. Nasty political campaigns could ruin things Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, November 13, 2012 3:41 PM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#1739 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 3:52:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This is what I mean - clear chart just for visuals...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#1740 Posted : Tuesday, November 13, 2012 4:03:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Quote:
Hoping for all the best esp KE elections. Nasty political campaigns could ruin things Sad


Believe me its going to be nasty, esp now that we dont know if some "front runners" will run
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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