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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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the deal wrote:The perfomance is a mixed bag. Positives: Strongest Quarter in 2012, loan book growth (+5.8% q/q), double digit growth in deposits Negatives: NIM squeeze due to the high cost of funds, new land laws making loan recovery a long prcss & costly (+90 days b4 prcss starts). Overall morgage & property still growth arena. For FY 2012 a profit dip is inenvitable. I expect the mbus to grind to a hault until next year & onwards. i expect people to sell,then at 14,i will accumulate like crazy...say about 100,000shares...and then leave nse for a while to concentrate on other businesses...i beleive this are CURRENTLY dissapointing results. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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S.Mutaga III wrote:the deal wrote:The perfomance is a mixed bag. Positives: Strongest Quarter in 2012, loan book growth (+5.8% q/q), double digit growth in deposits Negatives: NIM squeeze due to the high cost of funds, new land laws making loan recovery a long prcss & costly (+90 days b4 prcss starts). Overall morgage & property still growth arena. For FY 2012 a profit dip is inenvitable. I expect the mbus to grind to a hault until next year & onwards. i expect people to sell,then at 14,i will accumulate like crazy...say about 100,000shares...and then leave nse for a while to concentrate on other businesses...i beleive this are CURRENTLY dissapointing results. 14.00 is a tough call, though stranger things have happened. last year when profits grew by 70% the market didn't react, i dont see why it should now. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:the deal wrote:The perfomance is a mixed bag. Positives: Strongest Quarter in 2012, loan book growth (+5.8% q/q), double digit growth in deposits Negatives: NIM squeeze due to the high cost of funds, new land laws making loan recovery a long prcss & costly (+90 days b4 prcss starts). Overall morgage & property still growth arena. For FY 2012 a profit dip is inenvitable. I expect the mbus to grind to a hault until next year & onwards. i expect people to sell,then at 14,i will accumulate like crazy...say about 100,000shares...and then leave nse for a while to concentrate on other businesses...i beleive this are CURRENTLY dissapointing results. 14.00 is a tough call, though stranger things have happened. last year when profits grew by 70% the market didn't react, i dont see why it should now. Q1 was good, Q2 was bloody, Q3 is best we have had this year. Q4 will outrightly stand out. @S.Mutaga III, I wouldn't call this a dissapointing picture
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Its a been tough year, i expect flat-ish growth this year. They had projected 709m as PAT (14 percent up) as recently as September, ama? Q4 could see growth yet... ..eeehhhh, so could it be that they overcooked the projections in the recent information memorandum to create a fake bus???? 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Current EPS 2.29
At current going price of KES 15.40 P/E – 6.7x
CHEAP SHARE. However, doubts have hit the street on whether HF will meet its 14% y/y FY growth projection. To make things worse, the doubts are based on good reasoning and even ‘worser’ is that the management seem to be revising the projection downwards. That changes things significantly
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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mwekez@ji wrote:Current EPS 2.29
At current going price of KES 15.40 P/E – 6.7x
CHEAP SHARE. However, doubts have hit the street on whether HF will meet its 14% y/y FY growth projection. To make things worse, the doubts are based on good reasoning and even ‘worser’ is that the management seem to be revising the projection downwards. That changes things significantly Ireri is always bullish which can be bad at times, those projections were too rosy,this were my projection when I did a report on HF way back in July. I don't think they will match my estimates. "This year I’m projecting the lenders asset base to rise to Kes38.4bn and Return on average asset to drop by 0.2% y/y to 1.7% negated by the high cost of funds in H1 2012 giving me a PAT of Kes652mn for FY 2012 as an estimate which equates to an EPS of Kes2.84." I'm looking at the numbers might do an update at a later stage here is the link http://www.contrarianinv...-a-one-stop-shop-begins
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Only about 11 per cent of Kenyans earn enough to support a mortgage. The World Bank however estimates that the Kenyan mortgage market has the potential to grow to Sh800 billion, which is about nine times the current size. http://www.businessdaily.../-/29kom4z/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Housing Finance (HFCL:KN) dropped by as much as 4.95% to close at KES15.45 after the property company announced a 2.7% y/y drop in its Q3 2012 profits. The property company's profits where negated by high interest expense on deposits which rose by 238% y/y but 6.2% q/q. The mortgage lenders Non Performing Loans (NPL's) edged up by 27.2% q/q to stand at KES1.97bn as the lenders mortgage customers struggled to make payments at 23% but the management in a press release that accompanied the Q3 2012 earnings said that clients are now comfortable with a rate of 18%, The Gross NPL to Advance Ratio now stands at 6.8% vs 5.7% at H1 2012. Moving on to the balance sheet the mortgage lenders loan book grew by 5.1% q/q (KCB 3.4% q/q) to stand at KES28.8bn while on the liabilities side the mortgage lender expanded its deposits by 9.2% q/q (KCB 6.4% q/q) to stand at KES24bn as the mortgage lender rolled out its current account. Despite the 2.7% y/y drop, EPS rose 25% q/q as the negative effects of expensive wholesale deposits started to abate. http://www.contrarianinv...nce-drops-on-profit-drop
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,077 Location: Nairobi
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Increase in Non-Performing Loans was 400mn q-o-q. Only 50mn was charged as a Loss Loan Provision. When will the 350mn be charged? In 4Q? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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VituVingiSana wrote:Increase in Non-Performing Loans was 400mn q-o-q. Only 50mn was charged as a Loss Loan Provision. When will the 350mn be charged? In 4Q? They can't make provisions before attempting foreclosure, I'm sure they will recover 60-80% of the Kes350mn.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@VVS, there is an elaborate guideline by CBK on providing for loan loss (CBK/PG/04 - Risk Classification of Assets and Provisioning – page 62 of CBK prudential guidelines). The provisions currently made by HFCK are very adequate. Besides, these NPAs, like at @the deal says, are recoverable by repayments from the borrowers. When that fails, the securities provided adequately covers the NPAs (check ‘discounted value of securities’ in the same page of HF NPA discosure)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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14.40 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,180 Location: nairobi
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Low 13.75 ???? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/21/2011 Posts: 1,010
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/26/2009 Posts: 67 Location: Pare pare
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A low of 13:75???? kweli hii ni diamond...blood diamond...hanging in there. Hug the bear....ride the bull.....di$mount!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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Simplified wrote:A low of 13:75???? kweli hii ni diamond...blood diamond...hanging in there.
lol. cldnt help laughin on the blood diamond bit. i'v bled quite a bit! still lookin to buy more.
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,180 Location: nairobi
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I said q3 will determine the direction,but keep your hope alive,iam seeing what i can sell to pile more. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Graham advices on buying undervalued companies which are going through periods of unpopularity with the crowd...i will buy more at ksh 14...am seeing some good response from coop...hope this does the same. i bought more jana, at 15.05. point, aim, shoot i dont shoot at the same point twice...i aim lower...the lower you aim the higher the returns...averaging down is my strategy. I wanted to fill my target, i couldn't risk waiting. Now if it goes to 14 or 13, i will def pick a few, but at my own leisure. someone bought at 13.75...tomorrow I will place an order at that price and hope it goes through. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Graham advices on buying undervalued companies which are going through periods of unpopularity with the crowd...i will buy more at ksh 14...am seeing some good response from coop...hope this does the same. i bought more jana, at 15.05. point, aim, shoot i dont shoot at the same point twice...i aim lower...the lower you aim the higher the returns...averaging down is my strategy. I wanted to fill my target, i couldn't risk waiting. Now if it goes to 14 or 13, i will def pick a few, but at my own leisure. someone bought at 13.75...tomorrow I will place an order at that price and hope it goes through. the bus is leaving but has come back for more passengers. u may be lucky . The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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with KES 0.70 interim dividend safely in the pocket and history of havin final dividend higher than previous year. Expect total KES 1.50 as minimum payout in 2013. Some are yet to notice that its dividend yield is the highest under finance sector, higher than even KCB's!!!
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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