Hmmm, @KingG makes an excellent point. In 2008, cane went unharvested [spoilt, degraded] due to clashes & fear among many in the 'volatile' areas. The crop was delivered, if at all, to the factory in poor condition.
Furthermore, sugar stockpiled at Mumias factory/godowns since the roads to market [Nairobi, RV & Central] were blocked/inaccessible unless one was the 'right' tribe! Not to mention there were 'tolls' to be paid at these 'roadblocks'.
Therefore Mumias was spending money on production & interest on working capital for months while not 'moving' the product to market. Furthermore, some of the outlets (customers) were broke after their premises were burnt (Ukwala) or run away, if not killed, abandoning their business premises.
Suddenly, Mumias does not look as attractive unless there is peace & free movement of goods & people in 2013. I expect a run-off which means the 'elections' will run from March to April 2013.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett