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of migingo crisis and dwindling fortunes for uganda
BAAK
#1 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2009 2:45:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/27/2008
Posts: 70
UG decision to encroach on Kenya has been given a lot of publicity among leading news agencies of the world. But everyone familiar with the case knows that UG’s encroachment onto Kenya is illegal and uncalled for. All indications are that UG was actually spoiling to get into actual war with Kenya for no good reason. All their actions point to this direction. Kenya on the other hand has acted very mature.

But within the last 3 months,UG has seen its Shilling depreciate in comparison to the Kenya Shilling by not less than 25%. Why? My take is that foreign investors and tourists are now shunning UG due to its seemingly confrontational and rebellious nature. The interview Kaguta had with BBC the other day was the final straw on the camel’s back. Which investor of means would go all out to invest in a country with unpredictable foreign policy? UG is digging own grave,but this maybe is a blessing in disguise for competitor Kenya. Why? Looking at the unfolding situation,Kenya is undoubtedly the more stable,objective and reasonable country where you can put your investment and sleep in peace
Obi 1 Kanobi
#2 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2009 3:05:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
And Museveni is standing up as the tinpot dictator that he has always been and whom the mzungu all so love to use and dump.

Me thinks,Kagame and Kikwete are also rising up to take up his position while kenya leaders continue their cliff top death dance.

Kweli asante ya Punda ni mateke,does Museveni know that the biggest source of FDI in UG is Kenya.

Rwandans are also currently benefitting from our FDI's.


I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
Kaigangio
#3 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2009 3:13:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/27/2007
Posts: 2,768
@ BAAK,

Another way of looking at the situation,though i stand to be corrected...I think this could be an economic ploy by Kampala to unofficially and deliberately devalue the Ush against the hard currency and hence the ksh to shun or limit the Kenyan imports into Uganda..... just a thought.


NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB
...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
Obi 1 Kanobi
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2009 3:36:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
@Kaigangio

Such a move cannot work unless you have a favourable balance of payments.

The effect to the Ugandans will be to pay more for imports like petroleum and fuel products,steel,plastics this will lead to inflation that will also increase the prices of locally manufactured goods.


I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
Kaigangio
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2009 4:00:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/27/2007
Posts: 2,768
@ kanobi,

i am not a financial expert but i think we are more or less talking about the same thing (the effect),but dont forget that any devaluation of a currency ends up favouring the exporter and the weaker the currency the better for a net exporter....

Probably M7 would now have a genuine excuse of sourcing his commodities elsewhere but Nairobi.


NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB
...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
mozenrat
#6 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2009 6:31:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/18/2008
Posts: 796
@Kaigangio

Why would he want to do that?...

Also,it wouldn't work...

any devaluation of the UG currency arising from this crisis would be across the board i.e. against all other currencies...

In effect,regardless of the 'sources' m7 selects over Kenya,UG ends up paying more...

Further,he is unlikely to find a cheaper alternative for as a source than Kenya is (Mombasa is the nearest sea port for UG)...

You’re right about exporters gaining more but UG is a net importer just like Kenya is and will always be hurt by a weak currency..

Bareta
#7 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2009 7:29:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/5/2008
Posts: 86
@BAAK,

You sound to me like Alfred Mutua,that man from Dubai when you say the following: 'Looking at the unfolding situation,Kenya is undoubtedly the more stable,objective and reasonable country where you can put your investment and sleep in peace'

The last time I checked this country was not even at peace with itself! What with the unhealed wounds of PEV (these are rotting from within),Mungiki menace,uprooting of the railway line. A slight provocation today can spark off widespread violence!

Against the backdrop of all these,we have a concoction of bitter herbs in water and kerosene in the name of a Coalition govt. Endless bickering,infighting,corruption,lack of leadership,and you want to convince me that we are stable,objective and reasoble!!!! Puliizz.

There is something called a Country's sovereignty and pride. This must be defended,the same way you would jealously defend your house and family members. You aren't going to tell me that someone can break into your house,sleep with your wife as you watch joyfully and claim it is because you are peace-loving!!

Let's not legitimise our ills by living in self denial. Let's accept that they are there and deal with them.


Chief
Kaigangio
#8 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2009 8:41:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/27/2007
Posts: 2,768
@ mozenrat,

If i read correctly and i again i stand to be corrected,some of the basic pros and cons of devaluation are:

Pros

The locally manufactured goods and services become cheaper and more competitive to external (foreign) buyers. This has an effect of boosting the demand for domestic products in the international scene.
The increased level of exports should lead to an improvement in the current account deficit.
The increased exports and aggregate demand normally leads to higher rates of economic growth.

Cons:



Devaluation causes inflation because the importation of goods and services become more expensive. It also happens that the firms / exporters have less incentive to cut costs because they can rely on the devaluation to improve competitiveness.


It reduces the purchasing power of citizens abroad. For example it becomes more expensive for people to holiday or carry out business trips etc outside the country.


A large and rapid devaluation may scare off international investors. It makes investors less willing to hold government debt because it is effectively reducing the value of their holdings.


Consider Uganda's case on the above. Ugandas exports is mainly Agriculture based and some considerable tourism....and now oil is about to be exported. The way i see it it might be more advantageous for uganda for the weak currency



I believe M7s actions and the don't care attitude that he is potraying now clearly indicates that he could have done his homework well and probably has realised something that Nairobi should be well afraid of.....


NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB
...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
Djinn
#9 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2009 9:07:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
Baak,I concur with Bareta - there is no way you can say Kenya is more stable. Even with the LRA problem,Uganda is much more stable in terms of the population. M7 might be a dictator and expansionist but the triggers for distabilisation do not exists like they do here - they have barely noticeable tribalism,generally good food security,lower prices of basics (owing to abundance in rain,etc). Here we are skating on thin ice near the end of winter...PEV,corruption,near total break down in law and order,human rights issues,famine,elec/water shortages (tell me which investor would come to a country where the workforce alone is held hostage by so many variables - which business will thrive in an unjust business environment - after Triton....after Track It....who has any doubts about the levelness of this playing field.....there are more things behind the scenes and thanks to international political expediency,they may not see the light of the day......your argument is flawed...the premises fallacious....

The problem with equality is that we desire that it be with those that have more than us rather that those that have less
hismak
#10 Posted : Wednesday, May 20, 2009 9:09:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/8/2006
Posts: 8
how much is uganda likely to make from oil,
if museveni uses petro dollars like saddam to create a large military force kenya should brace for more trouble
we should quickly sort our political mess and put this country on accerated economic growth to make sure we are always stronger then our nieghbours
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