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why this persistent cyclic trend at NSE?
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jammo
#11 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:51:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@BAAK... Ever heard the edict 'no one can ever beat the trend'...n price trends are cyclical..wither short..or long. There's no thing like a longterm investor.. Just a long term speculator!! Think back in 1975-77... US,china was goin thro a recession n global markets were slumped serious...gettin a 25-35year olds to invest in stocks was as impossible as taxin our mps!! Now..that same lot is grown up wishin they had invested then and are investin now..buyin from the babyboomers hurriedly tryin finance retirement.. while em young guys are criticisin stocks and wonderin why anyone is buyin....cycles exist..as short as 5days..or long as 50 years.. Investment is a personal thing..not individual..but personal..u realign ur goals with market trends..short term or longterm depends on particular counter and ur goals. Disinterest in stocks now has most investors within last two years just cashin in and leavin..it won't last with average shortterm speculator havin revised their turnover from 1 month to 3month window.. 8-14weeks ago kengen was 12bob..very few speculators boarded..now they wish they had...not coz its goin anywhere..but coz sh3 appreciation is huge...... Short or long..get smart. Learn the cycles..ride them..not castigate beneficiaries!

The race is not always to the swift..nor the battle always to the strong..nor food always to the wise..nor riches always to the intelligent..favor is not always to the skilled..or learned..but time and chance happens to all. Ecl9:5..
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Kiz
#12 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:59:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 13
@ Jammo,

With your speculation prowess,which are the current best 3 speculative counters


Kim
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maasai
#13 Posted : Thursday, January 15, 2009 11:16:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/18/2007
Posts: 11
When I read jammo's post you can easily detect those are words from a wise man

A penny SAVED is a penny wasted if not INVESTED.
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BAAK
#14 Posted : Friday, January 16, 2009 5:47:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/27/2008
Posts: 70
Long term investors are the ones who cushion the markets whenever the speculators go on a cash-in-spree. So Jammo et al do not shout at the roof top and seek to convert everyone else into a speculator as by so doing you will be shooting yourself in the foot.

In any case,speculators need long term investors much much more than the other way round.

I do not know how long this cyclic trend will persist or the extent to which speculators have infiltrated NSE. But I also know that empires rise and fall. Thus this trend is not perpetual and will die down after sometime.

But all in all,there are many of us who,do to the nature of their work,they are not in a position to do active stock trading. That&rsquo;s why if in the meantime someone cannot achieve a reasonable return in one,two,three years because of this cyclic trend by speculators,why keep in NSE when there are other ways you can achive a more reasonable return?
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jupiter
#15 Posted : Saturday, June 27, 2009 5:28:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/8/2009
Posts: 71
Aaaaaghrrr!

All that glitters is not gold
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jerry
#16 Posted : Monday, June 29, 2009 4:43:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
BAAK. If I get 46% in coop in a week why not sell and move to another stock? I can do this online using my phone. Don't ignore the advancement in technology. The bible says that a time will come when you'll not be able to transact business without 'a chip in ur right hand'.

Hotels will always serve the fruits/vegs of the season. In stocks,ur duty as a trader is to identify the HOTshare of the season.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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mv ufanisi
#17 Posted : Monday, June 29, 2009 6:04:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
@ Eli - great post.

As an investor (Long term or short term) one thing you have to understand before getting into the market is that its cyclical.
For the KQ case,imagine buying at 8 bob share rising to 136 (a return of 1550%). At some point you should have been smart to realize that the trend was not going to keep going up at this rate and got out. On the other hand EB at 95 was unsustainable so you should have bought because you can see that at some point it would rise again.
The best investors are those who know how to predict unsustainable gains or losses it doesn't matter if it's within a week or 5 years.
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MistaT
#18 Posted : Tuesday, June 30, 2009 12:55:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/30/2009
Posts: 3
I beg to differ regarding the main driver of prices and valuation at the NSE. Rather than being driven by market fundamentals,the valuations at the NSE are driven more by the behavioural and cultural aspects of Kenyans. NSE is one big rumour driven market with vultures on the side walk ready to pump and dump stocks.

The best way to win at the NSE is as a momentum trader with the courage to jump into a stock whose price is rising faster than everybody else or to jump out of a falling stock before everyone else starts rushing for the door. I do not however recommend this strategy for those managing third party funds because as you may all know this might violate the suitability and the reasonable basis requirement,in addition to resulting in high transaction costs.

The Kenyan retail investors are very vulnerable to trading with the crowd,by buying what everyone else is buying,and avoiding what everybody else is avoiding. This behaviour presents opportunities to the patient and skilled investors out for the bargains. It is a contrarians market,and to win you have to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing but only when the underlying factors of the target stock is favourable and in line with your long-term investment strategy/policy.

Creating a culture of risk awareness
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