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Mutava Musyimi defects to TNA
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McReggae
#31 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 4:53:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
@Liv, the power of incumbency gave MK pockets of votes all over the country.....plus that small matter of UK once again being from central....you can't wish this away!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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keraka
#32 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 4:56:32 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/24/2010
Posts: 637
Location: Nairobi
Liv wrote:
keraka wrote:

Without sounding to be tribal nor fanning tribal animosity against one tribe as ODM did it in 2007.Just act non partisan and use your interpersonal skills to grill a kale or a Lunje who they might Vote for btwn Pamba n the prince incase of a run off.Those two are the swing votes in Kenya hizi zingine ni za kujaza tuu considering that Mt.kenya and luo Nyanza are locked and the key thrown to sea.I might be wrong anyway msikonde.



@Keraka, All those (kale and Lunje & others) voted ODM almost to a man in 2007 when the Pentagon was alive and strong...yet the effect could not give any significant advantage to Raila against Kibaki (the race was still too close to call).

What has changed?.... The Effect of Pentagon will not be there in 2013.... In fact the effect of some of those who were members of pengon in 2007 may be negative to ODM in 2013.


I said i might be wrong and dint intend to offend anybody.

We dont know who won in 2007.

Give scenario analysis a chance,because a day is a long period in politics.
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.
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madollar
#33 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:16:26 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
McReggae wrote:
@Liv, the power of incumbency gave MK pockets of votes all over the country.....plus that small matter of UK once again being from central....you can't wish this away!!!!

for UK ODM can ignore the 41vs1 analogy and use another emotive issue land and UK would be minced meat in RV and at the coast
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Liv
#34 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:26:56 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
@McReggae,
It is true MK had pockets of support from some areas. Have you already concluded that UMK cannot get such pockets of support from RV, Kisii, Coast, NE for himself?

You are right the effect of UMK coming from Central might affect him.... Don't you think the perceived non-performance of RO as a principal in this government might also affect him?

What I am just saying is that.... the belief that in a runoff between RO and UMK...RO will obviously win...does not hold water. It is just that...a belief.... it is only based on the belief that Kenyans will wake up and say ...it is 41 against 1. It is like that pre 2005 belief that ...a Raila cannot be president...a Luo cannot be president....which many people believed until they were confounded.

It is the other strategies that UMK and RO will employ that will determine who will be President in case they have a runoff....it is not that belief (41 against 1).

@Keraka, no one is offended. I did not say who won 2007 elections.... but it is a fact.... the race was too close to call....even all polls showed that.
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Lolest!
#35 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:31:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
mdudu wrote:
And where did this 'truth' of the 41 against 1 originate from? Are the Embus and Merus part of the 41 or 1?

and the Mbeere! Hii 41 against 1 was the height of upumbavu and was even wrong mathematically!
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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Lolest!
#36 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:32:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
madollar wrote:
McReggae wrote:
@Liv, the power of incumbency gave MK pockets of votes all over the country.....plus that small matter of UK once again being from central....you can't wish this away!!!!

for UK ODM can ignore the 41vs1 analogy and use another emotive issue land and UK would be minced meat in RV and at the coast
better strategy!!
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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mkeiyd
#37 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:44:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
Liv wrote:
@McReggae,
It is true MK had pockets of support from some areas. Have you already concluded that UMK cannot get such pockets of support from RV, Kisii, Coast, NE for himself?

You are right the effect of UMK coming from Central might affect him.... Don't you think the perceived non-performance of RO as a principal in this government might also affect him?

What I am just saying is that.... the belief that in a runoff between RO and UMK...RO will obviously win...does not hold water. It is just that...a belief.... it is only based on the belief that Kenyans will wake up and say ...it is 41 against 1. It is like that pre 2005 belief that ...a Raila cannot be president...a Luo cannot be president....which many people believed until they were confounded.

It is the other strategies that UMK and RO will employ that will determine who will be President in case they have a runoff....it is not that belief (41 against 1).

@Keraka, no one is offended. I did not say who won 2007 elections.... but it is a fact.... the race was too close to call....even all polls showed that.


@liv, I'm writing this in the hope that you live among Kenyans [all tribes].
Do you own sampling of the various tribes in the rift and ask them between RAO and UK, whom would they vote for? There is no 41 against 1,no such thing.
In the rift,two tribes one represented by the prince have historical issues brought bare by PEV.Then there is the "land" issue to the rest of thee country. Are you wishing all that away in order to qualify keraka's thinking as belief?
I was in the thick of in 08 and what i know is,kuna mafuta na maji.
Let's just think without getting a tad desperate.
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Liv
#38 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:56:15 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
mkeiyd wrote:


@liv, I'm writing this in the hope that you live among Kenyans [all tribes].
Do you own sampling of the various tribes in the rift and ask them between RAO and UK, whom would they vote for? There is no 41 against 1,no such thing.
In the rift,two tribes one represented by the prince have historical issues brought bare by PEV.Then there is the "land" issue to the rest of thee country. Are you wishing all that away in order to qualify keraka's thinking as belief?
I was in the thick of in 08 and what i know is,kuna mafuta na maji.
Let's just think without getting a tad desperate.


@mkeiyd,
I am a kenyan living in nairobi. I don't need to tell you who associate with....but I am rarely with people from my tribe.

I am NOT denying that there are historical and land issues in RV. What I am saying is that... in 2007 all these issues were used to make people vote against MK. At that time Pentagon was breathing fire and the ODM strategy was 41 against 1...YET...this did not give any significant advantage to ODM / RO over MK. The race was still too close to call.

Why do you think that raising people's emotions against one tribe in 2013 will bring in a significant change in votes that did not happen in 2007?.... ODM had the best of this in 2007 when Pentagon was working.... Unless it is reconstituted in 2013 for the runoff.... It is hard to believe that RO will win. Even if it is reconstituted.... the best that can happen for ODM will be a 2007 scenario.... a close race.
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Kaka M
#39 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 6:13:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/18/2011
Posts: 459
Times I wonder, what will happen to bring another Rainbow coalition in 2013 like happened in 2002 irrespective of whichever way it goes.

Hii ya Mutava nayo ni Mpya though it will save him money and sleepless nights.
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mkeiyd
#40 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 6:25:40 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
Liv wrote:
mkeiyd wrote:


@liv, I'm writing this in the hope that you live among Kenyans [all tribes].
Do you own sampling of the various tribes in the rift and ask them between RAO and UK, whom would they vote for? There is no 41 against 1,no such thing.
In the rift,two tribes one represented by the prince have historical issues brought bare by PEV.Then there is the "land" issue to the rest of thee country. Are you wishing all that away in order to qualify keraka's thinking as belief?
I was in the thick of in 08 and what i know is,kuna mafuta na maji.
Let's just think without getting a tad desperate.


@mkeiyd,
I am a kenyan living in nairobi. I don't need to tell you who associate with....but I am rarely with people from my tribe.

I am NOT denying that there are historical and land issues in RV. What I am saying is that... in 2007 all these issues were used to make people vote against MK. At that time Pentagon was breathing fire and the ODM strategy was 41 against 1...YET...this did not give any significant advantage to ODM / RO over MK. The race was still too close to call.

Why do you think that raising people's emotions against one tribe in 2013 will bring in a significant change in votes that did not happen in 2007?.... ODM had the best of this in 2007 when Pentagon was working.... Unless it is reconstituted in 2013 for the runoff.... It is hard to believe that RO will win. Even if it is reconstituted.... the best that can happen for ODM will be a 2007 scenario.... a close race.


@liv, In 2007, the previous election in people's mind was 2002, it was peaceful and unifying.
We are in 2012,what are the chances of the rift [non-bantus] voting for the prince?

To cut the chase short, i've shared my thoughts,i bow out.
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