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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough

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guru267		#141 Posted : Sunday, September 16, 2012 2:41:39 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		the deal wrote: I tend to think this guys are going to unlock Kenya's real estate sector since they are evolving into a one stop shop i.e build and provide financing to prospective buyers, no one has such capacity in Kenya www.nation.co.ke/Feature...72/-/pi8mgp/-/index.html www.kcbbankgroup.com/tz/...mp;id=336&Itemid=222 @the deal do not lie to wazuans like this. S&L is more than capable of WHOLLY financing full development projects even for GOK which is no different than doing the building themselves! S&L is even enabling the development of property regionally and is now officially the biggest mortgage financier in the Eastern & Central Africa region! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwekez@ji		#142 Posted : Sunday, September 16, 2012 10:25:34 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		guru267 wrote: the deal wrote: I tend to think this guys are going to unlock Kenya's real estate sector since they are evolving into a one stop shop i.e build and provide financing to prospective buyers, no one has such capacity in Kenya http://www.nation.co.ke/Feature...72/-/pi8mgp/-/index.html http://www.kcbbankgroup.com/tz/...mp;id=336&Itemid=222 @the deal do not lie to wazuans like this. S&L is more than capable of WHOLLY financing full development projects even for GOK which is no different than doing the building themselves! S&L is even enabling the development of property regionally and is now officially the biggest mortgage financier in the Eastern & Central Africa region! @guru267. do not lie to wazuans like this. There is a BIG difference between wholly/100% financing a project and developing the project. The former is done by both the mortgage lenders but the latter is only being done by HF. In the former, only interest is earned while in the latter the projects profits are earned (which are significantly higher than the net interest earned in 100% project financing). You may also note that HF has its eyes on devolved regions! .
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mwekez@ji		#143 Posted : Sunday, September 16, 2012 10:31:48 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		hisah wrote: Back in 2006, TCL wanted to buy HFCK at 12... The deal collapsed at the 11th hour and down came the price from 32.50 high. Back in Mar 2009 GFC effects saw HF print a low of 12.90 In 2010 HF raced above 26/- In 2011 & early 2012 HF tested sub 14/- and bounced. Late 2012 - HF is yet again testing sub 14 levels... Market cycles... Seems HF trading range is 12 - 33/- The dynamics of 2008 PEV, 2009 GFC & 2011 KES collapse have all tested the low of 12/- with no breakage. HF is now poised for a sharp snapback having been left behind by the market recovery. Going forward the CBR rate cut should boost their books. But the fear baked in this stock could be due to the strict land laws as well as the county land freeze. Buy fear... well said #market cycles #buy fear, sell greed #buy low, sell high .
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the deal		#144 Posted : Sunday, September 16, 2012 10:53:06 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		guru267 wrote: the deal wrote: I tend to think this guys are going to unlock Kenya's real estate sector since they are evolving into a one stop shop i.e build and provide financing to prospective buyers, no one has such capacity in Kenya www.nation.co.ke/Feature...72/-/pi8mgp/-/index.html www.kcbbankgroup.com/tz/...mp;id=336&Itemid=222 @the deal do not lie to wazuans like this. S&L is more than capable of WHOLLY financing full development projects even for GOK which is no different than doing the building themselves! S&L is even enabling the development of property regionally and is now officially the biggest mortgage financier in the Eastern & Central Africa region! Lol what are you smoking? There is a huge differance between property development financing and property development itself. Let me educate you. 1. Property development financing means giving loans to developers to build, you as a lender do not own the property. Its a risky business since the developer can fail to find buyers and default on his loans i.e KCB Rwanda http://www.the-star.co.k...n-homes-builders-estate 2. Property development means you build your own house and then find a buyer or a tenant for the development. In case of HF they can provide financing for their projects creating lending opportunities in the process. They can even sell to folks with S&L loans ...in the counties HF can build and then let folks or companies/parastatals rent from them. S&L cant compete with HF. Dont comfuse a bad year (2012) due to high cost of funds with what HF is becoming.
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guru267		#145 Posted : Sunday, September 16, 2012 11:14:47 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		guru267 wrote: [quote=the deal]I tend to think this guys are going to unlock Kenya's real estate sector since they are evolving into a one stop shop i.e build and provide financing to prospective buyers, no one has such capacity in Kenya @the deal I know the difference between actual property development and property development financing! I never said S&L is a property developer in my post! It is you who is misleading wazuans claiming that no other mortgage financier HAS THE CAPACITY to develop.. If i can finance a development project for 5billion then it must mean if i wanted to i could develop the project myself! S&L may have its reasons for staying out of property development but capacity is definitely not among them! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwekez@ji		#146 Posted : Sunday, September 16, 2012 2:53:35 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		mwekez@ji wrote: hisah wrote: Back in 2006, TCL wanted to buy HFCK at 12... The deal collapsed at the 11th hour and down came the price from 32.50 high. Back in Mar 2009 GFC effects saw HF print a low of 12.90 In 2010 HF raced above 26/- In 2011 & early 2012 HF tested sub 14/- and bounced. Late 2012 - HF is yet again testing sub 14 levels... Market cycles... Seems HF trading range is 12 - 33/- The dynamics of 2008 PEV, 2009 GFC & 2011 KES collapse have all tested the low of 12/- with no breakage. HF is now poised for a sharp snapback having been left behind by the market recovery. Going forward the CBR rate cut should boost their books. But the fear baked in this stock could be due to the strict land laws as well as the county land freeze. Buy fear... well said #market cycles #buy fear, sell greed #buy low, sell high . #cha-ching! HF has low downrisk, high upside potential/reward! .
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mwekez@ji		#147 Posted : Monday, September 17, 2012 7:48:13 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		#Farsighted_CEO Housing Finance which lowered its base-rate to 18 per cent from 23 per cent said it expected more take-up of mortgages especially for the middle and lower end of the market and is scaling up development to meet demand from these market segments. “Despite a slowdown in economic activity, we have continued to be involved in property development which will create significant lending opportunities for the company,” said chief executive Frank Ireri. http://www.businessdailyafrica....40/-/43ffiu/-/index.html
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guru267		#148 Posted : Monday, September 17, 2012 9:24:22 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		While HFCK had a base rate of 23% S&L was offering 19% to customers! They must have lost serious market share! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana		#149 Posted : Monday, September 17, 2012 9:27:31 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,077 Location: Nairobi		The concern I have is whether some unscrupulous [we know there are many] will take advantage of the new Land Laws [retroactive] to screw over HFCK? Wives, children, etc [even those who appear out of the night after the chap dies] can put a claim on the assets of the deceased. How does HFCK recover the money? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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mwekez@ji		#150 Posted : Monday, September 17, 2012 9:45:39 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		@guru, while S&L was charging its existing customers over 19%p.a (19%+risk premium). HF was charging its at an effective rate of 16%. Strong statement made by HF right there at the tough times. What is more, currently, S&L is charging a base rate of 18% meaning when risk premium is loaded on the customer the effective rate becomes higher (mostly >20%). HF is currently charging an effective rate of 18%. Watch as HF gains more of the market share!
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hisah		#151 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 12:23:00 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Trades @13/- currently striked. The fear... 12/- coming up. But the volume build up tells a different tape direction... price dip vs volume surge - the divergence $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying		#152 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 12:36:11 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		wow! buy the fear, or step aside for the falling knife? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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ngapat		#153 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 12:40:32 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 12/11/2006 Posts: 882		Now this is rough inside a diamond “Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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S.Mutaga III		#154 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 12:57:20 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830		I will wait patiently for sub 12...until then...this is a falling knife A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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mlennyma		#155 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 1:10:07 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,180 Location: nairobi		I have no fear at all,very greedy buy orders at above 13 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Kaffir		#156 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 1:28:53 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 5/8/2008 Posts: 77		Just as i was preparing to enter.. Let me watch for a little while before entering. It is really a diamond in the rough - just not sure when the polishing of the diamond is scheduled to happen!
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Aguytrying		#157 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 1:50:47 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		S.Mutaga III wrote: I will wait patiently for sub 12...until then...this is a falling knife You will never buy. if(very big if) it gets to 12.00, you will wait for 10.00. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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S.Mutaga III		#158 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 2:56:32 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830		@aguy...i already have some...I will be averaging down if it gets to those levels (12)...if it gets to (10) even better...and just pray they dont reduce the dividend per share A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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mlennyma		#159 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 4:08:03 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,180 Location: nairobi		I think a bonus is due leave alone the sweet dividend...over 2m today traded seems the opportunity has been spoted by bigger boys. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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hisah		#160 Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 4:42:24 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		I continue to fancy the volume spread. 2,014,300 shares traded today. Last week 1M shares were traded. Closed @13.25/- The rebound will be snappish when it comes. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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