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Ol-Karia 280MW
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chiaroscuro
#1 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 9:47:34 AM
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Location: Nairobi
It will be the largest single geothermal power project in the world.

Hip-Hip....
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mlennyma
#2 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 10:51:58 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
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Location: nairobi
Owned by kengen or geothermal dev.co?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Ericsson
#3 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 10:59:18 AM
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Joined: 12/4/2009
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KENGEN
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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GGK
#4 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 1:14:17 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
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Location: Ruiru
@280Mw, it should be the largest power station in Kenya. Vision 2030?
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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chiaroscuro
#5 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 2:40:35 PM
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GGK wrote:
@280Mw, it should be the largest power station in Kenya. Vision 2030?


But there are actually two power stations at 140MW each... being done at the same time as one power project.
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githundi
#6 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 3:35:29 PM
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Joined: 11/19/2010
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Location: nairobi metropolitan
Geothermal is the future of kenya. I wish we could do three more such projects and kiss goodbye to IPPs @ 82b vs a budget of 1.4 T, we can prioritise and do it in 5 yrs. Any visionally politician can do it and my vote could be his/hers. Kibaki worked on roads, more need to be done on energy.
Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 4:29:04 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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KAZI IENDELEE!
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sparkly
#8 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 6:41:14 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
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Location: Enk are Nyirobi
chiaroscuro wrote:
It will be the largest single geothermal power project in the world.

Hip-Hip....


Status i.e. wha phase of development?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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githundi
#9 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 6:58:38 PM
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sparkly wrote:
chiaroscuro wrote:
It will be the largest single geothermal power project in the world.

Hip-Hip....


Status i.e. wha phase of development?

Starting.....groundbreaking today.
Democracy does not belong to the dead
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marketHEAD
#10 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 7:11:18 PM
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Joined: 1/26/2010
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Location: nairobi
who are the major contractors for this project in civils, electricals and mech engineering?
Success is 20 percent skills and 80 percent strategy.
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murchr
#11 Posted : Monday, July 23, 2012 7:19:56 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
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marketHEAD wrote:
who are the major contractors for this project in civils, electricals and mech engineering?


I guess some chinese company, I recall Kengen MD saying that some Americans wanted the contract but their price was just but too much they couldn't compete with the chingchong
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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kiio
#12 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2012 8:55:22 AM
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Joined: 6/22/2010
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Location: rbi
cheap power, oil..... the future is surely bright.
“Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward. They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game.” – Wolfgang Von Goethe .
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chiaroscuro
#13 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2012 9:20:13 AM
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marketHEAD wrote:
who are the major contractors for this project in civils, electricals and mech engineering?


Toyota [Japanese], Hyundai [Korean], Sinopec [Chinese], KEC [Indian]
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a4architect.com
#14 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2012 9:57:32 AM
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Joined: 1/4/2010
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Location: nairobi
PR MArriot -London based drillers.

http://pr-marriott-drilling.com/news.htm

I did some design work for them early last year.

NEWS
Oil, Gas & Geothermal

PR Marriott Drilling has recently mobilised Rig 10 to Kenya. The Rig is currently drilling geothermal wells at Olkaria in the Rift Valley.

New Oilwell 1500 HP rig with 2 x 1600 HP mud pumps has recently completed a very successful high temperature geothermal well in Guatemala and a programme of oil and gas exploration wells in the dense jungles of Belize, Central America.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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sparkly
#15 Posted : Monday, August 20, 2012 7:39:27 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Just looking at recent Kengen accounts and i have noted the following:

The Nyayo government totally ignored the energy sector and there were virtually no new projects brought online between 1988 and 2003. Between 2003 and 2011, Kengen installed 465MW, 200MW being stop-gap thermal projects.

Kengen is carrying out the 2008-2018 projects in two phases , Horizon 1 (700 MW) to be completed by 2015 and Horizon 2 (1,100 MW)to be completed by 2018.

Horizon one has delivered 270MW so far, 120MW thermal (Kipevu III) and 150MW from a combination of small green sources like wind, geothermal and hydro.

The flagship projects for Horizon 1, Olkaria IV and Olkaria I unit 4 and 5 are set to be commissioned in 2014 and will deliver 140MW each.

The main projects for Horizon 2 are: two further Olkaria projects (310MW), Kilifi coal plant (600MW) and a natural gas plant (300MW.

While the capital employed has balloned from KShs 95B to 150B in the last 5 years, the revenue averaged KShs 10.7B between 2007 and 2010. This only went up to 13B in 2011 when Kipevu III and the small green projects were commissioned.

The next major jump in revenue is not expected until 2015 when the 280MW Olkaria projects are commissioned. There will be a small increase in revenue in 2014 when Muhoroni Thermal (80MW) is commissioned.

GOK owns 70% of the company, nssf 1.3%. Of the 204,000 shareholders, 200,000 are Wanjikus owning 100-10,000 shares.

In conclusion Kengen is a capital hungry company carrying out projects for vision 2030. The company, while growing its assets is not likely to increase its earnings meaningfully till 2015.

The current "Wanjiku heavy" shareholding structure only gets excited by a growth in earnings and dividend.

The company does not have institutions who might get excited by the growth in assets, hence the reason why the company is trading at P/B of 0.3.

GOK obviously does not care for dividends but i foresee the company continuing with the KShs 0.5 Div per year policy, whether the money is borrowed or not, to appease Wanjiku.

Meanwhile Kengen has loans of KShs 68B as at 2011 and has capital commitments of KShs 153B. I think time is right for GOK to do the second IPO, possibly followed by a rights issue.

I don't expect major upwards price movements, driven by fundamentals before year 2015.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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murchr
#16 Posted : Monday, August 20, 2012 10:21:26 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
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I may be wrong but i thought the money used for projects is gotten from public infrastructure bonds??
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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chiaroscuro
#17 Posted : Tuesday, August 21, 2012 8:43:28 AM
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Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
I may be wrong but i thought the money used for projects is gotten from public infrastructure bonds??


A.K.A. LOANS
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mkonomtupu
#18 Posted : Tuesday, August 21, 2012 11:22:04 AM
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Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
sparkly wrote:
Just looking at recent Kengen accounts and i have noted the following:

GOK owns 70% of the company, nssf 1.3%. Of the 204,000 shareholders, 200,000 are Wanjikus owning 100-10,000 shares.

In conclusion Kengen is a capital hungry company carrying out projects for vision 2030. The company, while growing its assets is not likely to increase its earnings meaningfully till 2015.

Meanwhile Kengen has loans of KShs 68B as at 2011 and has capital commitments of KShs 153B. I think time is right for GOK to do the second IPO, possibly followed by a rights issue.

I don't expect major upwards price movements, driven by fundamentals before year 2015.


@sparkly, have you factored in that there is an upcoming power tariff review next year after elections. If kenya power and kengen have to attract counterpart funds then ERC must review the tariffs upwards at least 25%. Then consider kenya power under the tariff structure has to pay more for the newer plants. Even without the tariff review kengen half year profits grew 32%. Rights issue is coming next year they need to balance equity and debt. All in all this is the time to accumulate on this one with a long term view something to enjoy in old age or have the kids fight over
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Ericsson
#19 Posted : Tuesday, August 21, 2012 11:27:30 AM
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Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,717
Location: NAIROBI
Kengen share price is too depressed for it to issue a rights issue.
They will continue taking loans from multilateral and development agencies to fund their expansion.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Kausha
#20 Posted : Tuesday, August 21, 2012 12:19:17 PM
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Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Kengen's projects are vital but their financial structuring is very suboptimal and destructive of shareholder value. Any one for financial engineering classes alongside kengen
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