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swap markets
emlyn ngwiri
#1 Posted : Monday, July 02, 2012 7:25:44 PM
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Location: nairobi
hi all

I was reading the other day how a derivatives can be used to limit its floating rate exposure- more precisely swaps.

just to highlight; consider a scenario; KCB has assets to the tune of billions of shillings- in this case, loans to its customers; either corporate or individual loans and its liabilities are the deposits from corporate and individual clients that usualy vary from time to time and hence can be viewed as short term liabilities.

The loans have a fixed interest rate while the deposits have a variable

Given the crisis in Europe the risk that the bank faces in my view is that the crisis could trickle its way into the kenyan market causing the short term interest rates to rise-- causing cash payments on deposits to increase right? but this would not be a major problem if cash inflows increase. BUT with a fixed rate loan prortfolio they will not. if KCB remains unheadged the banks profits may fall significantly.

The bank can enter into a fixed for floating as the fixed rate payer (receiving floating rate payments) to Hedge its exposure (floating rate payments received would offset any floating rate payments on deposits).

my question is,what would happen to the costs when the interest rates fall?
tonicasert
#2 Posted : Tuesday, July 03, 2012 8:44:07 PM
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Swaps are largely used to hedge specific cashflows against floating rate exposure. Since banks make money out of the intr rate differential on their assets against liabilities (thats their main busn) they will tend to move both depo rates n lending rates in tandem with mkt rates.

However if such a bank takes a long term loan or issue a note or bond on a floating rate, they enter into a swap to hedge should rates rise.

If rates fall, a fixed rate payer will still be comitted at the fixed rate but will register a negative mark to market (loss on revaluation)

My 2 cts
emlyn ngwiri
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 04, 2012 6:18:48 PM
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@tonicasert really? are swaps marked to market?

Scooby
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 04, 2012 8:19:02 PM
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Hi Emlyn,

All derivatives can be used to hedge interest rate risk exposure. Swaps are however preferred, as opposed to other derivatives, due to the fact that the major players in the market (and their customers as well) have a role in setting the benchmark rate (the LIBOR).

In the case of KCB, the interest rates on the loans are mainly floating rates. The base rates for the loans do fluctuate depending on various factors like the cost of getting deposits in the market and the CBR rate. So the use of swaps would best manage the exposure as you have intimated – but on its net exposure.

The impact of a decline in interest rates to KCB largely depends on the change in the shape of the yield curve and its net interest rate exposure. (I’ll use the table on Page 93 of the 2011 Annual Report).

A parallel reduction in interest rates could reduce the bank’s net income this year. A casing point is that the interbank rate in December was 27% while the current interbank rate is around 20% (as of 22 June 2012).

But the real impact of the reduction depends on what KCB is doing to manage its net exposure like reducing its loan book and increasing its investment in government securities.

And yes, the swaps are usually marked to market.

Hope this helps.

Regards
kizee1
#5 Posted : Wednesday, July 04, 2012 9:18:30 PM
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emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@tonicasert really? are swaps marked to market?




lol! mkenya huyu!
tonicasert
#6 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 7:46:17 AM
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Location: Abu Dhabi
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@tonicasert really? are swaps marked to market?



Yeah they are, since theyre usually longterm and in line with ias'
tonicasert
#7 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 7:48:05 AM
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kizee1 wrote:
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@tonicasert really? are swaps marked to market?




lol! mkenya huyu!


@kizee, najua m-sufferer holds kcb kwa roho
emlyn ngwiri
#8 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 7:57:07 AM
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Location: nairobi
tonicasert wrote:
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@tonicasert really? are swaps marked to market?



Yeah they are, since theyre usually longterm and in line with ias'



My thinking of marking to market implies that

1.There must be a clearing house for that pupose (SWAPS dont have a clearing house)

2.SWAPS are generally unregulated and the marking to market feature applies to regulate markets such as FUTURES.

kindly fill me in as to marking to market feature for swaps?

rgds

tonicasert
#9 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 8:15:07 AM
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Location: Abu Dhabi
Emlyn,

You are right, swaps are generally otc n hence not quoted.

However, the purpose of mtm is to know if theres an unwind at any moment, how much would be the resultant p/l. This is required for mgt purposes as well as regulatory.

Mtm numbers for the irs' can be fed from bloomberg / reuters to the prop system or done directly on blmg/reuters.
As some corporates dont see the need for investing in these softwares, most request banks (with whom the did such swaps with) to provide such mtm numbers say on a monthly basis.
Rollout
#10 Posted : Thursday, July 05, 2012 7:40:27 PM
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@ Emyln,

I think anyone can benefit by undertaking some form of risk management, hedging in a key risk management technique and swaption is one form of managing risk however the decision that goes into deciding whether to pursue these techniqueS depend alot on the business and the underlying exposures. Otherwise hedging could turn into a big lose!

Having say that, most Kenyan bankS have net liability exposure to the Euro Market so not hedging against the Euro is a good strategy at the moment.


Drunkard!
emlyn ngwiri
#11 Posted : Monday, July 09, 2012 6:29:52 PM
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@Rollout what you have said about swaption is fine. what would happen then to the COSTS when interest rates fall and what impact would it have on the banks profits?

Rollout
#12 Posted : Monday, July 09, 2012 9:08:43 PM
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It took me a few minutes to understand your question so maybe you want to re-read and correct it.

First you explain a situation where the bank is recieving a fixed rate for loans issued and paying variable rates for deposits. In a situation like this swaption is not the best risk management technique the spread between the spot rate and the rate the bank give for deposits very much absorb the short term rate risk.
But if this is a textbook question then anyone can scratch some simple to complex risk management techniques but under normal business sense Swap will not come into the picture because of so many other factors.
emlyn ngwiri
#13 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 5:51:09 PM
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rollout, this was my hypothetical scenario in order to establish whether it would be economically viable to use swaps as compared to other techniques on the basis of cost for hedging,going forward once intoduced in the country.

your view as to whether it will come into the picture is not relevant and is not a text book question.

When one does research, a person is set to answer some research questions that is the essence of this forum i thought?
Rollout
#14 Posted : Monday, July 16, 2012 6:57:49 PM
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Emlyn, Under the exact hypothetical scenario you presents, swap is not viable.
emlyn ngwiri
#15 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 6:06:30 PM
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Location: nairobi
Really? what options would you recommend as a way to curb the rise in interest rate in the short term on the deposits (remember the banks deposits are invested in other currencies (stong currencies)
Mainat
#16 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 10:52:05 PM
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An interest rate swap for KCB seems somewhat unnecessary given it pays zero interest rate for its deposits
Sehemu ndio nyumba
emlyn ngwiri
#17 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 8:01:39 AM
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Location: nairobi
but it effectively hedges the exposure to intrerest rate fluctuations doesnt it?

i think what is key is the risk management and not getting something out of the deposits(preservation is of high priority and not return)

Mainat
#18 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 8:15:29 AM
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Not sure you understand the purpose of an interest rate hedge especially in the Kenyan context i.e. you only do search a hedge if you believe that interest expense on a given a loan will be higher than interest received. Hardly likely to happen for most banks. Except HF which has a serious mismatch between deposits and loans
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Rollout
#19 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 8:30:47 PM
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@Emlyn
There are other effective measures to undertake on the scenerior you presented, I think you're more intrigued with swaps, but swap is not used in the scenerior you presented. Here are viable ways.

1) Offer fix rate on deposits
2) Take appropriate positions on investments on deposited fund
3)Buy bonds with coupon schedule payment that matches interest payment schedule on deposits
4) Apply appropriate spread between interest paid on deposit and time series regressional floating rates
Swaps are way too complex transactions than it is presented in reading materials.
tonicasert
#20 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 8:16:45 PM
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Hi Emlyn,

A hedge is essentially taken to protect against market risk. Deposits rates on the other hand are not really mkt rissk but determined by the management of a bank based on various facters such as theeir liquidity, asset growth plans, cbr rate etc.

An interest rate swap will be used to hedge against adverse movement in a mkt traded benchmark such as libor. Some facilities / bonds issued at libor + spread will be at the mercies of libor movements (for a moment ignoring the manipulation scandal for sm london banks), should such a rate rise in future.

So essentiialy it boils down to: will u take A swap to hedge against a management decision or market risk (which the bank wont have control). Thats why it may not apply in the scenario u describe
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