From the grapevineN1
Significant light oil discovery.
Oil in sands encountered in 1100m interval including 300m thick in Loch Shale.
Really significant explor result. Demonstrates substantial oil generation occurred in South Loc basin which is 1 of 7 related basins, each has similar magnitude to Lake Albert.
Loc Shale important interval. Above this the well encountered 100m net in 650m gross. Below Gross 150m. Oil recovered. Haven't estimated net, AOI say 43m.
Move away from fault we expect to find a complete interval of Loch Sands.
Expect 250m of that Gross further away from fault and quality to improve.
Q & A.
Can you read anything across from other basins?
Main impact is in the South Loch basin. Level of confidence is increased significantly. This basin has the Material Basin. Potential equiv to Lake Albert. 6 other basins holding at previous risk levels. We will appraise N1 and drill out similar prospects, Twiga, and embark on campaign to test other basins, South Omo in North Trend, results at the end of the Year.
Very bold wildcats.
Acreage is 10x Uganda, 1bn barrels so pre drill guidance was a 1/3 of prospective, so 3bn but then N1 and it exceeded expectations so a temptation to increase guidance to potential 1bn in South Loch, was thinking about 3bn barrels for their acres in Ethiopia and Kenya, might be closer to 9 or 10, but high risk upside with lots of work to do.
BUT with N1the size of the prize is potentially bigger.
Q&A
PaiPai....... drilled on old seismics.......? Kenya....... results tell anything about Volcano and disruption to oil play. What is source rock in lower sands?
Pai Pai....... all drilled on old seismic and FTG. Traps pretty well defined and in better position than a year ago.
100 leads now as opposed to 80.
Volcanics, some, drilled through some, thin and near surface. Concerns have been eased there. Can't rule our deeper source rock we don't yet know about.
Q &A
Congrats on Lower Loch... Twiga. 30km away so an idea on derisking on Twiga?
Twiga is geometrically mirror image to N1. COS has doubled to 30%. Lots of Geologiacl and Geographical stuff...... Good for Twiga in reference to previous Uganda style differences. Volumes....... hold back on volumes until evaluation of work. Exceeded guidance. Upside was 90mn barrels. That has been exceeded, work on going.
Q&A
Remind us net or gross and how matches pre drill.
Best in Lake Alb were 40m Net... that was good. Here we are talking 100m net in upper and more in lower so twice as much net pay. "WILDLY EXCEED EXPECTATIONS". Tax position updates to come
Q&A
N1. Reservoir geometry. missing some sections due to fault. Move away from fault should find more...... again 250m Gross..... RF looking for analogues to Lake Alb. A way off recover factors. Have recovered oil to surface."
-----------------------------------------------------
About it really. All very good to listen to.
Ya.. i'm very bullish, land package can't be duplicated.. AOIs holdings are worth a ton of $$$$$$$$$$. ML was pounding the table on TULLOW saying KENYA holdings worth xxx/share... AOI pretty much a equal partner in Kenya.. AOI a lot smaller.. and will move a lot faster and harder. 8/share will look really cheap soon. Like buying APPLE at 8/share after iphone first came out !
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.