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CBK MPC Meet!!!
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Hold CBR @18% some more. Let the feed-through preceed. Personally, easing as from Q4 will do. Cut based on banked longrains harvests & energy reliefs in the comfort of short rains. @Cde the CBK has a duty to ensure that growth does not fall any further since their targets for inflation & the currency have been met.. I vote they lower to 15% & hold until Q4! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:But stocks have ignored the fundies. Cool  Divergence has a nasty way of converging... @hisah i thought the market was reflecting the poor macro situation... Many Stocks are trading at single digit P/Es & below their tangible book value.. What more do you want as a rational investor?? Growth of 3.5% is still POSITIVE growth.. In these economic hard times (CBR @ 18%) any growth is welcome... despite only 1.7% growth in 2008 & 2.1% growth in 2009 corporates still managed positive growth in earnings so @ 3.5% i still expect double digit growth in EPS from corporates in 2012.. inotherwords the fundies are not great but still worthwhile for investing... Those counters trading above P/E of 10.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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guru267 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Hold CBR @18% some more. Let the feed-through preceed. Personally, easing as from Q4 will do. Cut based on banked longrains harvests & energy reliefs in the comfort of short rains. @Cde the CBK has a duty to ensure that growth does not fall any further since their targets for inflation & the currency have been met.. I vote they lower to 15% & hold until Q4! I agree but as much as this will sound a conflict of interest & more populist, let the banks lower the rates on their own 1st this time. We have seen that they can starting with our very own dear KCB. Tumezoea vibaya. But you know how it is, both ways we win We await the 5th.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:Lower CBR then KES does what? Then that does what to the current account? And inflation?
But IMF & Treasury expected KE GDP to grow 5% in 2012. BS... Let KES go to lower 90s. Thats an ok level if u ask me. It'll also be good for our exports which is one leg of the current account. Fiscal policies should also now be put in place to take care of current account. We dont want our growth to go to levels like those of uganda economy (2.4%). Our developing country needs the >5%
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Funny article this. IMF team recommends that banking rates not to be capped and at the same time wants CBR to remain 18% for the next 6 months! This according to IMF will ensure inflation falls to single digits, KES survives internal & external econ shocks and makes KE GDP to grow 5.5%...!? I guess thats what you call the height of madness. www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/nw0jpnz/-/index.html Since international mothers & fathers aka IMF wants CBR at 18% till Dec 2012, forget the MPC reducing the rate... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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That gives us more time to invest in government securities!!!And the elections in March??? I love Kenya.In fact,they should move elections to August 2013!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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CBR@18% for 7 months = CBK admitting it's pretty much clueless on how to shore up currency. Therefore you will be probably see shaky conviction in cutting the rate to around 16% to test the currency waters! Should the currency hold they may meet in a few weeks for a futher cut but should it weaken there could be small chaos on what to do.
In Prof is bold and has conviction in what he is doing, he should slash that rate to 12% or there about. Conditions favor a big cut. Credit expansion has slowed, inflation has dropped, Oil is down, Europe has some optimism and there is food in the market and more to be harvested. This is the time to cut the rate. Businesses have suffered and GDP growth will be weak if these rates remain where they are.
I expect nusu conviction from Prof though!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:Funny article this. IMF team recommends that banking rates not to be capped and at the same time wants CBR to remain 18% for the next 6 months! This according to IMF will ensure inflation falls to single digits, KES survives internal & external econ shocks and makes KE GDP to grow 5.5%...!? I guess thats what you call the height of madness. www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/nw0jpnz/-/index.html Since international mothers & fathers aka IMF wants CBR at 18% till Dec 2012, forget the MPC reducing the rate... ... and Chairman of the finance committee Chris Okemo has already agreed with IMF on holding the CBR @18% for the next 6 months. NKT ... how now will our GDP grow by 5.5%? IMO, a gradual decrease of the CBR (starting tomorrow)would have done us good
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Uganda’s central bank on Tuesday cut the benchmark lending rate by one percentage point for the second month in a row, seeking to stimulate economic growth as inflation eases. http://www.theeastafrica.../-/10a7jec/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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What's the humming bird saying? I see them slashing cbr by 100 basis points! I see the Stock market smiling tomorrow & a flight to safety at the Forex Mart!  I could be wrong! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:What's the humming bird saying? I see them slashing cbr by 100 basis points! I see the Stock market smiling tomorrow & a flight to safety at the Forex Mart! I could be wrong! They need to cut by 100 - 200bps to start with. Obviously that will see USDKES shoot to around 88 - 90, but is that bad considering it reflects the econ fundies. KE econ is squeaking and needs credit jabs asap considering KRA has been given a miracle task of raising half of the 1.4 trillion crazy budget target.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 232 Location: Nairobi
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Yahooooooooooooooooooooooo My folks told me that my very first word was 'billionaire'
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/8/2009 Posts: 975 Location: Nairobi
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Will the banks take the cue? You will know that you have arrived when money and time are not mutually exclusive "events" in you life!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Thanks, guys were spot on
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:What's the humming bird saying? I see them slashing cbr by 100 basis points! I see the Stock market smiling tomorrow & a flight to safety at the Forex Mart! I could be wrong! They need to cut by 100 - 200bps to start with. Obviously that will see USDKES shoot to around 88 - 90, but is that bad considering it reflects the econ fundies. KE econ is squeaking and needs credit jabs asap considering KRA has been given a miracle task of raising half of the 1.4 trillion crazy budget target. (100 + 200)/2 = 150  Le Prof must have logged into Wazua before convening the MPC meeting @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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Well confirms prof may not be on top of things...he just turned in the nusu conviction I was expecting! bure kabisa..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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XSK wrote:Will the banks take the cue? Only when TBill rates top out. The 182 paper surged by almost 50bps in this week's auction  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Testing the waters? @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: I also think. Notice MPC will now be meeting 2 times in a month
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