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12 Indicators that Kenya is a Failed State
Tusker Baridi
#1 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 6:37:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/9/2006
Posts: 186
The Crisis States Research Centre defines a 'failed state as a condition of 'state collapse?? – i.e.,a state that can no longer perform its basic security and development functions and that has no effective control over its territory and borders. A failed state is one that can no longer reproduce the conditions for its own existence. Indicators of state vulnerability/FailingThe index's ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability - four social,two economic and six political. The indicators are not designed to forecast when states may experience violence or collapse. Instead,they are meant to measure a state's vulnerability to collapse or conflict. All countries in the red,orange,or yellow categories display some features that make parts of their societies and institutions vulnerable to failure. Some in the yellow zone may be failing at a faster rate than those in the more dangerous orange or red zones,and therefore could experience violence sooner. Conversely,some in the red zone,though critical,may exhibit some positive signs of recovery or be deteriorating slowly,giving them time to adopt mitigating strategies.Social indicators1.Demographic pressures: including the pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources. The pressure from a population's settlement patterns and physical settings,including border disputes,ownership or occupancy of land,access to transportation outlets,control of religious or historical sites,and proximity to environmental hazards.2.Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples: forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression,causing food shortages,disease,lack of clean water,land competition,and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems,both within and between countries.3.Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance: based on recent or past injustices,which could date back centuries? Including atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups and/or specific groups singled out by state authorities,or by dominant groups,for persecution or repression. Institutionalized political exclusion. Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth,status or power as evidenced in the emergence of 'hate' radio,pamphleteering and stereotypical or nationalistic political rhetoric.4.Chronic and sustained human flight: both the 'brain drain' of professionals,intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of 'the middle class.' Growth of exile/expat communities are also used as part of this indicator.Economic indicators5.Uneven economic development along group lines: determined by group-based inequality,or perceived inequality,in education,jobs,and economic status. Also measured by group-based poverty levels,infant mortality rates,education levels.6.Sharp and/or severe economic decline: measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income,GNP,debt,child mortality rates,poverty levels,business failures.) A sudden drop in commodity prices,trade revenue,foreign investment or debt payments. Collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies,including the drug trade,smuggling,and capital flight. Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens,such as pension payments.Political indicators7.Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency,accountability and political representation. Includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.8.Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people,including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services,such as health,education,sanitation,public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites,such as the security forces,presidential staff,central bank,diplomatic service,customs and collection agencies.9.Widespread violation of human rights: an emergence of authoritarian,dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. Outbreaks of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against innocent civilians. A rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices. Any widespread abuse of legal,political and social rights,including those of individuals,groups or cultural institutions (e.g.,harassment of the press,politicization of the judiciary,internal use of military for political ends,public repression of political opponents,religious or cultural persecution.)10.Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’: an emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity. Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents,suspected 'enemies,' or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition. An 'army within an army' that serves the interests of the dominant military or political clique. Emergence of rival militias,guerilla forces or private armies in an armed struggle or protracted violent campaigns against state security forces.11.Rise of factionalised elites: a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines. Use of aggressive nationalistic rhetoric by ruling elites,especially destructive forms of communal irredentism (e.g.,'Greater Serbia') or communal solidarity (e.g.,'ethnic cleansing','defending the faith')12.Intervention of other states or external factors: military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies,states,identity groups or entities that affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict. Intervention by donors,especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions.
Tusker Baridi
#2 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 7:07:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/9/2006
Posts: 186
If you ever had a doubt that Kenya is a failed state,there you have it. Kenya scores 100% on that index and even earning some extra credit. Good luck to y'all.
Jalofg
#3 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 7:33:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/30/2009
Posts: 73
@ TB

I agree 100% there are many shortcomings in our beloved country.

But lets focus on the positive.

Lets bring change in our country by being the change we want to see.


Jalofg
Tusker Baridi
#4 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 7:38:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/9/2006
Posts: 186
@jalofg

How can we bring change when we refuse to even acknowledge that we have a problem? Look at that list,it is like it was written specifically for Kenya,yet we refuse to tackle Agenda 4. What we need is SA style Truth and Reconciliation,without that Kenya is finished.
the sage
#5 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 7:42:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/20/2008
Posts: 367
Nice one Tusker Baridi.

Democracy is just a crock of crap. It is the tyranny of the elite. And we live in a country where ostentatious wealth rubs shoulders with abject poverty.

A most failed of states. The country is walking naked waiting for the child to point it out (the Emperor's new clothes)
Jalofg
#6 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 7:51:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/30/2009
Posts: 73
@TB

Agreed..,but first things first. There is no way we are gonig to adress the issues appropriately with the hatred we have in this country.

We need to sincerly forgive each other while still in our houses,such that when we get to the table we can resolve issues. The forgiveness we see with our leaders is merely PR but not from the heart.

Its ordinary kenyans like me and you who died during the PEV and not the leaders. Infact,they were watching from the comfort of their houses as we slaughtered each other.

Ealier i posted a thread on '' Operation clean parliament'' but noone supported or encouraged me. Lets not be blindened by our tribal chiefs. We need to open our eyes and see kenyans are suffering.


Jalofg
Obi 1 Kanobi
#7 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 8:28:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
Failed state is relative,In the eyes of the west kenya is not habitable but in the eyes of kenyans,the challanges are just the everyday stuff.

Out of interest,are we better off or worse off than we were during the Moi 90's. Our failings are magnified by the openness of our society,Kenya is a third world country that has as much media scrutiny as the western countries.

Kenya will get into real trouble when the Reuters,the AP's,the Microsofts and all the Multinationals setting up shop in East and Central Africa will choose Kampala,Dar,Kigali etc as their regional operational bases.

But we certainly need to look at ourselves.


I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
Tusker Baridi
#8 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 8:39:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/9/2006
Posts: 186
@Obi

I dont think getting hacked to death by your neighbors because you belong to a different tribe is just ordinary or being beheaded by Mungiki because you refused to pay tax to milk your cow.

These are worse time than Moi error,at least raw tribalism was not as evident. And Moi never stole any election,all he did was to bribe politicians to divide opposition just enough for him to win. And Moi had leadership skills even though he run down our economy.

Enter Kibaki and everything we thought were bad under Moi just got worse especially tribalism and nepotism. Even corruption under Moi was not as brazen as under Kibaki,just add up the corrution(or attempted ) under Kiguoya and you will see he already surpased Moi yet he has only served 7 years vs Moi's 24. At this rate,Kenya will resemble Somalia after the 2012 PEV.
FundamentAli
#9 Posted : Friday, May 15, 2009 9:37:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
Our problem is politics.

Look at the issue of demographics. Over population is a very serious challenge in this country. Our water resources are streched. Kenya like like the rest of africa as per report released yesterday will find challenges feeding its 'growing population'. People are living on a quarter acre of land per person in some areas. Surely,when a politician promises such a person his problem are as result of governance and an alternative will cure his ills,the politicians are lying. The politicians ignore the resources at hand. Resources are none existent. How do you create wealth in such instances. Every politician wants the population of his people to explode so that they can have voters. Family planning services have taken a low key in our country. I understand that donors were told to pack and leave. With such an attitude,what can we as kenyans plan? If we cannot plan a basic because of politics,how do you expect us to progress?


Fundamentals + Sentiments = Position
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