C and P

This is the real reason why the hypocrisy is playing out on Kenya Military (http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Kenya+may+lose+Sh1bn+in+US+aid+to+military++/-/1056/1421472/-/ysgnxnz/-/index.html).

The interest of strategic military players in Somalia particularly Uganda and Ethiopia are diverse. This diversity is explained by the lust for Kismayo, the last stronghold of the Al-Qaeda Affiliated Al-Shabaab. Kismayo lies in the sector commanded by the Kenyan defense forces.
Ethiopia is not serving under AMISOM, hence its claim on Kismayo which is operated by Kenya Army is an offensive interest. Uganda and Burundi operate the Mogadishu and its neighboring districts hence their claim on Kismayo which miles away from the jurisdiction is also offensive. Intelligence gathered on Ethiopian interests in Somalia exhibit American interests with Ethiopia as the proxy. In an effort to clarify its position, Ethiopia insists its quest for Kismayo is driven by TFG and US demands.

Ethiopia foreign and defense ministries have hinted that the US and TFG officials asked them to speedily take Kismayo.
What makes Kismayo the ultimate prize for the three key players (KDF, EPDF, & UPDF) is the tilting of military power in the region. While this is the theoretically correct factor, geopolitical, external forces push Uganda and Ethiopia to scramble for Kismayo and beat KDF at it.

Military and security analysts point military power as a core factor with the army that takes Kismayo as the ultimate regional super-power. However, that is partly the crux, but Kismayo is merely a port city controlling an economy but not a central government base hence less strategic both politico-economically.

The Geopolitics of Somalia Military Conflict
The geopolitics of Somalia are diverse with controversy with the West having closed its eyes and forgot the conflict. Neighboring Kenya planned for years with the US, Britain, and France how Somalia could be restored. In Somalia War Theater, the AMISOM players want to prove who is who in the regional geopolitics’ and who has the better army besides who has more influence in the West.

Events that led to the October 2011 entry of KDF to Al-Shabaab strongholds remain both mysterious and under intelligence bottle cap. The abducted persons have never been heard from nor rescue plans made.

Kenya as such had planned the war and had their interests in Somalia carved out. Kenya had trained 4000 Somali troops and facilitated their arming. Kenya deployed these troops then sought pro-government militia alliances including the Ras-Kamboni brigade and ASWJ. These alliances have played the central role in shaping the future of the Somalia. Unfortunately, the military plan and exit strategy that Kenya used was not popular with the US, Britain, and France. They warned Kenya against attacking Somalia.

The ramifications of this discontent may be playing out in the current AMISOM scenario. Strategic Intelligence has confirmed dozens of American and British military programs for Uganda where Uganda Army has received both training and military help. The Kenyan’s success in Somalia has not gone down very well with these global powers. (Hence their story to withdraw military aid to Kenya due to “Human rights violations”)
These military training programs signal a shift in geopolitical focus with the West favoring Uganda as the regional military player to oust Kenya position. Ethiopia, which directly works with the US, has also come in to Somalia uninvited just as the Americans do when carrying out an invasion. Each player wants a cake of the success in Somalia.

The London conference and the Turkish efforts are direct foreign power pressure to scuttle possibility of geopolitical power massing by Kenya under Kibaki regime. The strategy deployed by KDF has managed to bring uniquely desired results. Giving an African country, such credentials would demean the role of these global players as pacesetters in global security and peace efforts.

In London, the British promised military and economic aid in return for oil besides proposing British Oil (BP) as a choice strategic partner in the program. The Turkish effort was a direct involvement of the US whose oil explorers still have licenses for acreage in Somali oil farms. This triangular complex explains the role of espionage, sabotage, and conspiracy to reduce the importance of KDF success and Kenya’s overall importance and influence in the peace process.
Kenya’s military success in Somalia dwarfs UN role and shames previous incursions including the American Black Hawk Down operation, The Ethiopian Military Operation, and The Ugandan half decade barren effort in Mogadishu. Nevertheless, regardless of the effort to stymie KDF/Kenya achievements and level of influence in Somalia, numerous Somali MPs making it even more difficult to dislodge that particular fact back Kenya.
By taking Kismayo, this ultimate geopolitical muscle prize will shape the future of African security programs and roles. If KDF takes Kismayo and Kibaki’s administration plays the central role of establishing a government in Somalia, it will be impossible to rubout Kenya’s large image as a powerful and influential military and peace broker-power. With such a name, Kenya can control regional politics, and shape the future of the regions geopolitics, economic blueprints, and military programs.

@Rahatupu.interesting analysis.

proud to be kenyan, jay z song ,my president is kibs

Now USG is offering rewards for the capture of Al-Shabaab leaders. Iko kitu hapa.