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Double dip recession vs Great Depression
ChessMaster
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 10:20:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Am i too pessimistic or is the first global depression of the 21st century around the corner?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
Nabwire
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2012 8:36:40 PM
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Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
At this point anything is possible, but I highly doubt if a depression is coming. I think the EU will be dismantled, or atleast they will shed off the extra fat, so globally we will continue to be affected until that whole mess is sorted out. China's economy is also cooling off just like the BRICS. I'm overall bullish on the US economy
ChessMaster
#3 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2012 1:03:30 AM
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Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Comparison between the great depression and US now.The next link is a great read.Its a financial analysis of the US.Highlights:negative and growing cashflows,net worth is negative and deteriorating plus massive off-Balance sheet liabilitiesUSA Inc
Comparison between the great depression and europe now. Either way you look at it, EU and US are very close to exhausting their options especially with major defaults on the horizon. BRIC growth rates are a low and i don't think africa growth rates will help.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
Cde Monomotapa
#4 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2012 6:29:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Lost Decade.
Nabwire
#5 Posted : Saturday, June 02, 2012 12:23:38 AM
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Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
I wonder who wrote the USA Inc article, sounds very alarmist, very Tea party-ish!!
Anyways the reason im bullish on the US is these guys came to the brink of financial armageddon in 08 and they rushed in to put checks and balances that ensured that they woudnt be in the same position again. US Corporations are sitting on huge sums of cash, they basically adopted a lean model and the feds instituted stress tests that they have to abide by. I was at the mall over the weekend and you could hardly walk coz there were so many people. I know the first reaction is Americans buy on credit, but that credit has a limit. Despite an economic downturn, the fact that people are shopping to me is an indicator that the economy is picking up. I remember in 08 the malls were empty. http://seekingalpha.com/...ank-of-america-is-a-buy
Basically they are prepared for the worst. But this is not to say that African stocks will not outperform US, I think the wise thing to do is diversify on both markets and hopefully buy when there is blood, if the Depression ever comes around.
Nabwire
#6 Posted : Saturday, June 02, 2012 9:44:07 AM
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Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
.
Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Saturday, June 02, 2012 4:33:32 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
"Money is a tool. Not a collectible."
ChessMaster
#8 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 3:06:03 PM
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Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
IMF Chief Economist says crisis will last a decade.LOST DECADE!!! Seems the age of skills and value is finally starting.Its either that or another world war.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
StatMeister
#9 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 3:28:56 PM
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Location: La Islas Galápagos
ChessMaster wrote:
IMF Chief Economist says crisis will last a decade.LOST DECADE!!! Seems the age of skills and value is finally starting.Its either that or another world war.


Sasa jameni just when i wanted to push Kismayu to the farthest corner of my mind Sad
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
StatMeister
#10 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 3:39:02 PM
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Location: La Islas Galápagos
StatMeister wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
IMF Chief Economist says crisis will last a decade.LOST DECADE!!! Seems the age of skills and value is finally starting.Its either that or another world war.


Sasa jameni just when i wanted to push Kismayu to the farthest corner of my mind Sad


And no, the next world war will be about water, not oil or religion or money or nukes
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
ChessMaster
#11 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 3:51:14 PM
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Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Sorry about that.I'm not wishing for it.Its just that when there's a global depression world war tends to follow. I think it will be for resources but at the top of the list was for energy...why water?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
sparkly
#12 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 10:45:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
ChessMaster wrote:
Sorry about that.I'm not wishing for it.Its just that when there's a global depression world war tends to follow. I think it will be for resources but at the top of the list was for energy...why water?


After the third world war, there will be no WORLD. Not when small countries like Pakistan have nuclear weapons, That you can be sure of.
Life is short. Live passionately.
StatMeister
#13 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 7:49:02 AM
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Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
ChessMaster wrote:
Sorry about that.I'm not wishing for it.Its just that when there's a global depression world war tends to follow. I think it will be for resources but at the top of the list was for energy...why water?


While US and Israel have issues with Iran 'Nukes', that can only result in a tri-partite war.

On the other hand, if Kenya wanted to divert Lake Victoria water to Natron or Magadi or somewhere, or maybe build very large dams, ofcourse the Northern countries would gang against Kenya, while upstream countries would support hoping to win a right to rivers starting in their territories.

As an example, if Kenya pushed for water rights, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Ethiopia would join on the Kenya side, Egypt and Sudan would be the antagonists, while Uganda and S. Sudan would initially be neutral before joining the Kenya side. In no time, the whole Maghreb would be supporting the North while Black Africa would be definitely South.

Conspiracy theory Pray Pray Pray Pray Pray
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
guru267
#14 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 8:40:43 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
StatMeister wrote:
On the other hand, if Kenya wanted to divert Lake Victoria water to Natron or Magadi or somewhere, or maybe build very large dams, ofcourse the Northern countries would gang against Kenya, while upstream countries would support hoping to win a right to rivers starting in their territories


The geography here is all wrong.. Its Uganda that controls the flow of L. Vic and the Nile.. Not Kenya!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mnandii
#15 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 8:44:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
sparkly wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Sorry about that.I'm not wishing for it.Its just that when there's a global depression world war tends to follow. I think it will be for resources but at the top of the list was for energy...why water?


After the third world war, there will be no WORLD. Not when small countries like Pakistan have nuclear weapons, That you can be sure of.

A certain mathematician made some calculations about two months back and concluded that there is NOT enough nuclear weapons to destroy the WHOLE world. He's called Kihanya (I forget the other name)
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
StatMeister
#16 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 9:13:34 AM
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Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
guru267 wrote:
StatMeister wrote:
On the other hand, if Kenya wanted to divert Lake Victoria water to Natron or Magadi or somewhere, or maybe build very large dams, of course the Northern countries would gang against Kenya, while upstream countries would support hoping to win a right to rivers starting in their territories


The geography here is all wrong.. Its Uganda that controls the flow of L. Vic and the Nile.. Not Kenya!


Uganda has 95% of Victorian energy and water flow benefit, its the rest of us squeezed to a corner who can upset the arrangement.

Still this was an analogy. Rivers are often shared by numerous countries, e.g:
Nile (11), Niger (10), Congo (9), Rhine (9), Danube (8), Zambezi (8), Amazon (7), Mekong (6), Brahmaputra (5), Parana (5), Volta (5), Limpopo (4)

Africa is large while its countries are small, meaning rivers are shared by numerous countries. Most of these rivers have had major issues at some point. With African countries developing oil reserves and growing economies, they will have bigger voices to say what they have wanted to say for long.

Read these examples:
The Nile http://en.wikipedia.org/...itics_in_the_Nile_Basin
http://www.thememriblog....g_personal/en/27090.htm
http://www.telegraph.co....lonial-Nile-treaty.html

Danube http://en.wikipedia.org/...ion_of_the_Danube_River
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
ChessMaster
#17 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 1:43:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
For wars I can't really speculate all I know is there will always be wars. About nukes, they are usually threat deterrents not tactical weapons because if everyone deploys their nukes no one wins.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
ChessMaster
#18 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 1:49:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
nabwire USA inc was written by Mary Meeker. She worked for Morgan Stanley and has been pushing and proving that investments in IT are viable. I find her work good and now she's on the forefront again pushing for investments in smartphone technologies and their applications.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
murchr
#19 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 2:36:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
StatMeister wrote:
guru267 wrote:
StatMeister wrote:
On the other hand, if Kenya wanted to divert Lake Victoria water to Natron or Magadi or somewhere, or maybe build very large dams, of course the Northern countries would gang against Kenya, while upstream countries would support hoping to win a right to rivers starting in their territories


The geography here is all wrong.. Its Uganda that controls the flow of L. Vic and the Nile.. Not Kenya!


Uganda has 95% of Victorian energy and water flow benefit, its the rest of us squeezed to a corner who can upset the arrangement.

Still this was an analogy. Rivers are often shared by numerous countries, e.g:
Nile (11), Niger (10), Congo (9), Rhine (9), Danube (8), Zambezi (8), Amazon (7), Mekong (6), Brahmaputra (5), Parana (5), Volta (5), Limpopo (4)

Africa is large while its countries are small, meaning rivers are shared by numerous countries. Most of these rivers have had major issues at some point. With African countries developing oil reserves and growing economies, they will have bigger voices to say what they have wanted to say for long.

Read these examples:
The Nile http://en.wikipedia.org/...itics_in_the_Nile_Basin
http://www.thememriblog....g_personal/en/27090.htm
http://www.telegraph.co....lonial-Nile-treaty.html

Danube http://en.wikipedia.org/...ion_of_the_Danube_River


The source of River Nile is Lake Victoria and the water springs from underground flowing North. So Kenya diverting the Nile is impossible, tho some rivers flow to that basin called Lake Victoria
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
youcan'tstopusnow
#20 Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 2:55:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
ChessMaster wrote:
For wars I can't really speculate all I know is there will always be wars. About nukes, they are usually threat deterrents not tactical weapons because if everyone deploys their nukes no one wins.


"And we don’t care anything about your atomic bomb; it's -- it’s useless because other countries have atomic bombs. When two or three different countries have atomic bombs, nobody can use them..."

Malcolm X El-Hajj Malik El-Shabazz

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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