Raila has always moved with the wind – what matters to him is the political expediency of the time.
Why do I say so;
On the ICC matter, don’t be too surprised if he beats a complete about-turn. Ida set the mood when she publicly offered that she "feels” for the affected families – all of a sudden!
The ODM rank and file has also gone quiet on the hitherto familiar firebrand approach in drumming up for ICC!
Then, more recently Fidelis Gumo spoke out of favour with ICC!!
To crown it all Raila himself, this past week-end has left no doubt as to his change of heart on the matter – albeit for a short while, as may be dictated by political expediency!
Mau Complex Conservation.
On the MAU issue, Raila was on the fore front of fighting on the side of the Occupiers of the Forest, along with the Rutos et al in and around 2005. Together they repulsed and reversed the gains made by Kimunya the then Lands Minister - in ridding the forest of the destructive occupiers. This politically expedient action by Raila then, not only helped the Forests destroyers, but also served as an incentive to other people to invade the Forest expecting protecting from him – partly explaining why they went ahead to vote for him in 2007.
Come 2009, Raila changed his tune as usual, and took over the Mau Forest eviction project from Michuki – the then Minister for environment, who was already ably handling the matter!
What followed is history – with Ruto turning tables on Raila, and occasioning a divorce with the Kalenjin nation.
The new Constitution:
Raila has always advocated for a Parliamentary system of Government – a matter that informed his campaigning against the Constitution in the 2005 referendum.
In the whole of 2008 and 2009 he un-relentlessly campaigned for his preferred system of Government – parliamentary, to be adopted in our Constitution.
However, the Parliamentary committee incharge short-shrifted him in Naivasha – leaving him very little option. Again he beat an about turn and all of a sudden fashioned himself as a champion of the Presidential system that Kenya had built consensus on.
MRC secessionists.
Initially Raila came out strongly sympathetic and embracing the MRC fellows.
He publicly said that he was going to talk to MRC.
Shortly thereafter, he quickly changed his position - saying that since MRC didn’t regard themselves as Kenyans he couldn't talk to them – as though when he was embracing them he didn’t know this.
Now the latest is that Raila has yet again shifted his 'shifted position' to now advocate for talking to MRC.
Who knows what Raila will tell us tomorrow!
The bottom line is - Raila’s political expediency is common denominator.
Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu