Extract of the Kestrel Capital update
Our most recent fair value estimate on KenolKobil was KES 17.50, and consensus estimates are also around this level. Applying an estimated take_over premium of between 15-20% over fair market value for a controlling interest in the firm points to an offer price between KES 20.13- KES 21.00. This would imply a maximum exit P/E ratio of 9.5x and a P/B ratio of 2.7x, which in our view are unlikely to be achieved in the near-term assuming the status quo remains.
Notice the P/B ratio of Total Kenya is at 0.3!
From the above, we can tell with some good degree of certainity, the offer price range