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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
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Jamani
#561 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:23:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
Personally I think they are taking a share swap, read between the lines on statements from KK attributed to the so called takeover... it mentions that the company needs this, employees are being told not to worry it will be good going, the minority shareholder is being told two things one the company will be more profitable and two we shall pay you a fair amount to leave as KK heads to canaan.... question is why dump me on the way?
Do you think for any reason that the majority shareholders are not going to canaan? or their canaan arrives with the buyout payment?
Listen to Segman speak and read statements coming out, they say everyone will be paid at the same price the majority shareholder is paid.... now think from this point... we are not privy to the discussion on price....what could prevent them from selling the company at 50, then stating that they agreed at 17/- or make them(minority) happy say 22/- manager their expectations by giving leads through the lead brokers that the fair value is 17 pay make-up of 5 and the minority will sing your praises.
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ngapat
#562 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:28:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 930
I'm in no hurry to sell. puma should be ready to have me as a minority shareholder if they aren't willing to pay me 50bob per share
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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Jamani
#563 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:32:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
My thinking is that we will make money at 17 and above but we are being short changed..... mnyonge hana haki....
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Jamani
#564 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 7:39:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
ngapat wrote:
I'm in no hurry to sell. puma should be ready to have me as a minority shareholder if they aren't willing to pay me 50bob per share


I have this thought also that this is the way to go, though i read that it will be a compulsory offer.... the meaning of this am yet to decode...
does it mean that minority shareholders will have no right to decide to stay in but take the offer or it only means that their offer will be final take and leave or leave it and stay?
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mlennyma
#565 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:04:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
The most stupid act which i have hated,is the cma supporting the exploiters in suspending the share thus preventing the small share holders who usually exit at times like this making their kill.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Cde Monomotapa
#566 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 8:36:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mlennyma wrote:
The most stupid act which i have hated,is the cma supporting the exploiters in suspending the share thus preventing the small share holders who usually exit at times like this making their kill.

The wananchi are equally into impunity. Those are the CMA rules & regulations on M&A! smile
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_Advisory
#567 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:09:03 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/24/2012
Posts: 12
Kenol Kobil Stakeholder Advisory
As per this statement Puma Energy intends to pursue a 100% take over.Stakeholder Advisory Release KenolKobil here j.mp/K52vaP #Puma Energy From Sarkozy to Puma Energy The Star j.mp/JcnDOO
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:15 AM | Reason: Not specified
earthvoice
#568 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:45:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/29/2011
Posts: 257
Abstracted from the KenolKobil Update - Cautionary Statement on Potential Take-over (issued by Kestrel Capital)

Potential deal size and expected take-over premium

Assuming Puma Energy will launch a Take-over bid for the entire shareholding of the company, the deal size could be more than USD 300m in absolute terms versus KenolKobil’s current market value of approximately USD 220m. Our expectation is that all shareholders of the company would be offered the same Take-over price on substantially the same terms. Our most recent fair value estimate on KenolKobil was KES 17.50, and consensus estimates are also around this level. Applying an estimated take-over premium of between 15-20% over fair market value for a controlling interest in the firm points to an offer price between KES 20.13- KES 21.00. This would imply a maximum exit P/E ratio of 9.5x and a P/B ratio of 2.7x, which in our view are unlikely to be achieved in the near-term assuming the status quo remains. We reckon that the stock has been historically undervalued, which could also affect the dynamics of setting the acquisition multiples. We also contend that KenolKobil has been undervalued relative to other sub-Saharan Oil and Gas players, and the acquisition multiples would also attempt to capture the hidden value in the company. Overall, from our preliminary analysis of the contemplated transaction, shareholders would benefit significantly, with an upside of between 61.0% and 68.0% to the current price if the transaction was to materialize.
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
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selah
#569 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 9:50:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Jamani wrote:
ngapat wrote:
I'm in no hurry to sell. puma should be ready to have me as a minority shareholder if they aren't willing to pay me 50bob per share


I have this thought also that this is the way to go, though i read that it will be a compulsory offer.... the meaning of this am yet to decode...
does it mean that minority shareholders will have no right to decide to stay in but take the offer or it only means that their offer will be final take and leave or leave it and stay?


Do you want to say KK is worth 74B....I really doubt PUMA wuld fork all that cash.

My target is anything btwn 24-30 because looking at the assets alone, the company is worth about 46B...with a potential to grow the assets to double that in a few years.

What is troubling me is Why are the shares suspended by CMA for this long....it was a material announcement which I think a 1 or 2 days max could have been enough...I suspect KK is behind this suspension.They fear we wuld make alot more from speculation than from PUMA and that sickens me.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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VituVingiSana
#570 Posted : Wednesday, May 16, 2012 10:14:06 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
As much as getting 50/- would be a few wet dreams... KK is not worth KES 75bn today.

- A 10% return would be KES 7.5bn which is 2x what KK made in the very profitable 2011.
- A (net) 15% hassle-free from T-Bonds or Banks on 75bn = KES 11.25bn which is 3x KK's 2011 profits.
- For KK to grow, it needs a lot of cash which is expensive [Base for KCB from 1 June 2012 is 22%] thus KK's internal growth (using debt) is risky with price controls.

I think based on Kestrel's Report, the payment will range from 20/- to 25/- but s/holders should not get carried away.

Also read this:
http://coldtusker.blogsp...enolkobil-takeover.html

What if Puma offers a swap for those who do not want to sell their shares for cash?
http://coldtusker.blogsp...could-puma-list-on.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 10:19 AM | Reason: Not specified
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