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Can Kenya handle too many mega projects at once?
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butterflyke
#11 Posted : Monday, April 02, 2012 9:08:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/1/2010
Posts: 3,024
Location: Hapa
GGK wrote:
IMHO, these projects are manageable all of them if our systems perform optimally and proper management is done on them. Off-course there may be burn-ups in the supply side if there is to be a lot of over-laps as projects compete for raw materials.

Of-course our worry should be the publicly funded projects


i agree
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. - Muhammad Ali🐝
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mkeiyd
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 11:17:59 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
MaichBlack wrote:
Don't think Big. Think BIGGEST!!!

With proper planning and management, we can manage. We have so many idle Kenyans. Don't we have 40+ ministries? If you ask me, we should be having 40+ mega projects if each of the ministries is to justify it's existence.

We have been spending loads of cash on recurrent expenditure and it is very refreshing to see money going to capital expenditure! Now we just need controls to keep corruption at bay and to ensure proper SWOT analysis and cost/benefit analysis has been done.

@essyk - If you look at the projects you've listed what are the roles of Ministry of Agriculture, Education, Health/Medical services etc. Should they just wait until these projects are finished to roll out theirs?

Applause Applause Applause
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eboomerang
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 6:21:45 PM
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Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 301
Location: Nairobi
While it's good to have these "big" projects, we may also want to look at the macroeconomics level and try to understand what this big projects will eventually do to the economy.

The effect is signicantly different depending on who is the investor or who owns the venture.

Question is, how does our Balance of Payment(BoP) curve look like, what about our GDP and GNI?

Our BoP has continued to head South basically meaning we are importing way more that we are exporting. Our GDP is fine due to the foreign investments but the real indicator of economic growth -GNI doesn't look too good. The GDP looks good due to signifcant inflows of foreign based investors. However, these non-local investors do not contribute to our GNI, instead the real income is reflected in their home countries.

I agree with @MaichBlack that there is a great deal of analysis that needs to be done before embarking on some of these projects.
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murchr
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 6:53:31 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
eboomerang wrote:
While it's good to have these "big" projects, we may also want to look at the macroeconomics level and try to understand what this big projects will eventually do to the economy.

The effect is signicantly different depending on who is the investor or who owns the venture.

Question is, how does our Balance of Payment(BoP) curve look like, what about our GDP and GNI?

Our BoP has continued to head South basically meaning we are importing way more that we are exporting. Our GDP is fine due to the foreign investments but the real indicator of economic growth -GNI doesn't look too good. The GDP looks good due to signifcant inflows of foreign based investors. However, these non-local investors do not contribute to our GNI, instead the real income is reflected in their home countries.

I agree with @MaichBlack that there is a great deal of analysis that needs to be done before embarking on some of these projects.



Is this the same way that Kenyans are going to Rwanda, UG S.Sudan and now Zambia and bringing the $$ home?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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eboomerang
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 8:36:26 PM
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Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 301
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
eboomerang wrote:
While it's good to have these "big" projects, we may also want to look at the macroeconomics level and try to understand what this big projects will eventually do to the economy.

The effect is signicantly different depending on who is the investor or who owns the venture.

Question is, how does our Balance of Payment(BoP) curve look like, what about our GDP and GNI?

Our BoP has continued to head South basically meaning we are importing way more that we are exporting. Our GDP is fine due to the foreign investments but the real indicator of economic growth -GNI doesn't look too good. The GDP looks good due to signifcant inflows of foreign based investors. However, these non-local investors do not contribute to our GNI, instead the real income is reflected in their home countries.

I agree with @MaichBlack that there is a great deal of analysis that needs to be done before embarking on some of these projects.



Is this the same way that Kenyans are going to Rwanda, UG S.Sudan and now Zambia and bringing the $$ home?

Yes, same logic applies. Those Kenyans working in the region bring income or account for our GNI.

The only problem is that majority of those people go there on what you might consider to be small and personal ventures.

Larger businesses such as NMG, Equity etc are the scale of operations that can contribute to significantly increased GNI due to the scale of their businesses. The overall profits are remitted back to the headquarters.

Now, consider the size of investments the Chinese and others are making and ask yourself what's the catch. They must have calculated some really credible returns to those investments.

While it's not wrong to open the economy to other investors, we need to remember that at the end of the day they are interested in the bottom line and not necessarily to be involved in solving the social-economic issues in the country.
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kaifastus
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 8:42:50 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
Iam actually very excited..Never before has the governmt shown so much commitment in initiating mega projects! My favorite is the lappset and wind energy projects.
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alma
#17 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 8:55:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
These are not many projects in my view.

For vision 2030 we need them and more. I just wish we could add good governance and better driving schools in the mix.

There is one caveat though. If the citizenry keeps quiet as they are apt to do and leave these things to the beuracrats who hide water when there is a fire, then they will not happen.

One of the major ingredients of any project, gov't or private, working is an informed and aggressive client. If we as Kenyans refuse to question these projects, then they will all die.

The good thing is that at least we have started with vision. What is needed now is the work. Kazi kwetu.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
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eboomerang
#18 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 10:23:17 PM
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Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 301
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:


With proper planning and management, we can manage. We have so many idle Kenyans. Don't we have 40+ ministries? If you ask me, we should be having 40+ mega projects if each of the ministries is to justify it's existence.
...

This is one of the real problems we have. A massive population and still growing but there is not any economic activity absorbing these people. Having big projects for the sake of it will not solve anything, we will just have a larger playing field for the problems.

We cannot all fit into the Oil industry or that Lamu port or even in the investment banking industry. All these are very specialized and require few people to make things work. For example, the envisioned port in Lamu or the one in Mombasa, if well automated like it should, you'd hardly have a headcount of 5000 people working there. Therefore even with an excellent new port, you may still have majority of the people in that region idle.

Usually a country needs one large industry that absorbs the masses. That is the role played by the automotive industry in the US, the software industry in India or the manufacturing industry in China. These are industries created for the masses, where labor as a factor is significantly required in large volumes.

I think our journey to a middle income economy will really begin when we identify that industry and begin to channel all our efforts towards making that industry grow, then the economy will absorb most of the idle people. Otherwise if we leave a large part of the population behind, we will continue to be pulled down by social-economic challenges.
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Cde Monomotapa
#19 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 10:39:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
PPP
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GGK
#20 Posted : Tuesday, April 03, 2012 11:53:48 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 608
Location: Ruiru
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
PPP

Meaning? Public Private Partnerships?
Difficult thing. The two go into with divergent mindset making it difficult to spurr synergies. Also too much suspicion in the air. I attempted one and it was nightmare
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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