Let me enlighten you a little as a nigerian from the Niger Delter Region and as a worker with petroleum exploration firm with a fair knowlege of Kenya (beyond Nairobi, Msa etc).
To avoid oil curse Kenya policy makers have to :-
(i) Address the imbalance in terms of social amenities
to Northern Kenya. Nature has a way of compensating
the neglected and down trodden people by providing
enormous wealth in such places. Turkana that is
now a popular county is the most negleted region
in Kenya even without oil. The reason is the arid
and semi arid nature of the land. Now oil is
found in the negleted area what next ?
(ii) Oil exploration even though it brings enormous
wealth is a destructive activity to the
environment, so when oil is explored in a negleted
and down trodden environment like Turkana county
and their atmosphere poluted, their farmlands
destroyed, people becoming more impoverished, what
do you think will happen when Turkana people will
become consious that the wealth of the nation is
from their negleted region ? Seize the oil
workers, stop production, blow up pipelines in
retaliation ?? Kenya have to put a plan in place
to avert this. The best model so far is the Norway
model where the locals in the oil producing areas
where fully evacuated and relocated to other
regions within Norway. The question remains is it
workable in Africa.
(iii) One "wise" or better still stupid thing African nations do is that they refuse to learn from other countries to get informed and tap some experience in a new area they have no previous experience.
Whatever the bad news about Nigeria Oil and other African Countries, it cannot be 100% bad. A country that started oil production (not discovery) in 1959 has got some positive experience.
If I were Kenya policy makers I would take time to understudy other African Nations experience, pick up some positive things and drop some negatives. This makes you a better oil producer instead of sitting down in an arm chair in Nairobi and conclude from what you hear. Oil production is a process and first thing to know is :-
(i) Kenya must set up a regulatory authority to supervise and control the foreign companies.
(ii) From the onset Kenya must decide the mode of production after studying the models of other countries after balancing the pros and cons
Must it be JV (Joint Venture) between the exploration companies and Kenyan govt
OR
PSA (Production Sharing Agreement) where the exploration companies invest with their funds and recoup with barrels of oil ?
OR
Should it be mixture of both.
(iii) How is the Oil revenue be managed ?
(iv) What of issues of Keyanisation in Oil production companies ie ensuring job succession and guaranteeing
local content of Kenyans in management position in oil production companies.
I was actually expecting thoughts in this direction
from policy makers. Ghana took time to understudy Angola, Nigeria, Egypt and libya, pick up the plusses
and drop the minuses to come up with the right approach and so far they are doing well.
Your neighbouring Uganda thought they can do it alone without any experience, the result is one step forward and two step backward as they are now, they do not know exactly what they want.
I wish Kenya all the best.
Let me asked how many of us have visited Turkana County ? Those people have seen poverty, they have seen starvation. Oil production might be yet another
burden if something is done not done. I know their Mpigs are eating fat in Nairobi. Politicians only visit them in their private choppers to dash them food in exchange for votes during election period as they do not have roads, health facilties, schools etc. They are second class citizens of Kenya, people to be laughed at !!!
The name Turkana, Wajir etc only rang a bell during Kenya for Kenyans initiative piloted by amiable red cross boss Abass.
Kenya has to take time to learn from the mistakes of other countries like Nigeria. It is not about talking but that of working.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .