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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
mwanahisa
#1551 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 4:12:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@QW, you will probably remember we had this debate on Wazua in December last year. At the time KCB was hovering just above Kshs 15. At the time, some were predicting that it would tumble even further. Of course some of us bought and we are now reaping the rewards.

However, we will be quite happy to see it get back to 14 if it ever will - It will allow us to enjoy yet another ride to Kshs 20+ when rationality resumes. It always does, it just takes some time.

But then we have called the end of the bear often enough without success. Nowadays, its better to just buy when you believe a stock has been severely beaten down. As long as it is a strong company that is growing both revenues and profits (KCB qualifies), a lower price is always better than a higher price and I will vote for it every time AND I WILL BUY.

QW25091985 wrote:
funny enough we will see kcb back to 14 bob pretty soon . wait and see !
i like this market it likes gettin people wrong footed ( apart from me :D)

QW25091985
#1552 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 4:15:04 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
FUNKY wrote:
NSE closed at 3,312 today.


VOLUME !!!!!!!!!!!!!! . increasing or decreasing or what ?

headed to 3500 . wow!
hisah
#1553 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 4:22:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Volume spread tea leaves reading...

BAT topped out at 320s as per volume spike - same as what KK did back in July.


KCB too exhibiting the same. Will not rally as expected on solid results just like HFCK.


Definitely I get some heavy bashing stating the same esp on roar. In 5,4,3,2,1 - @cde and @guru smile



$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
QW25091985
#1554 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 4:36:17 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
hisah wrote:
Volume spread tea leaves reading...

BAT topped out at 320s as per volume spike - same as what KK did back in July.


KCB too exhibiting the same. Will not rally as expected on solid results just like HFCK.


Definitely I get some heavy bashing stating the same esp on roar. In 5,4,3,2,1 - @cde and @guru smile







its all in the price . i see also it not rallyin . its now of buyin the rumor sellin the fact ...suckers are the ones buying now ..am still waiting for it lower
ecstacy
#1555 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 4:48:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
jerry wrote:
ecstacy wrote:
post earnings season - Who is the driver?

Growth stocks either real or perceived.


Possibly.

Environment?

Thank God the Al-Shabaab war bill is going to be off our backs once we become part of Amisom. Do we know what it's cost us?

Thank God it's raining...

Thank God inflation dipped...

However, if fuel driven inflation played a major role in negative economic growth well then we headed back there. Tensions high in the Gulf with the possibility of a war placed at most 12-18 months from now. An oil price surge will flatten any little confidence in the recovery of the global economy. US knows that and is currently begging Israel to play peace. Will they win?...Oil is on 10 month highs even before sanctions (peacetime option) take place...

Add current total crop failure in parts of Kenya due to bad seeds..incoming food import bill up..

Add expensive devolution bill in our to be read budget...

Add an election year in Kenya...

Let me stand accused of playing caution so far.

NB: Meanwhile babysitting KK and ooops NBK caught my interest again..
mwanahisa
#1556 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 4:49:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@hisah, I take your point. After a little while once the results are in the high wears off. However, the results certainly point to a good future for this behemoth of a bank(in EAC terms of course).

At a price of Kshs 20.50, the yield is just above 9% and PE of 5.5. By themselves these are very good ratios. Now, should the share price slide; even if the trend were still pointing down, I will certainly be willing to ignore the technicals and go with the fundies.

I am guessing that KCB's price once we are done with the election will be 30+. Thus, let's say I pick up the share Kshs 18. However, it somehow goes to 14 and I am unfortunately unable to buy any more at that point. Will I not be still be better off when it hits my target price?
hisah
#1557 Posted : Tuesday, March 27, 2012 2:38:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I am looking at the volumes on bluechips today and the top 5 look like this...

EQTY 5.12M
KCB 1.54M
TCL 1.28M
SCOM 5.42M
KENO 1.43M





Interesting volume building up on resistance on KCB, member and KK. These 3 want to go up...

The volume on tranny is also heavy. What's cooking here...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1558 Posted : Tuesday, March 27, 2012 3:18:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
This market will amaze everyone this year!
Below 3,200points has proved a tall order!
But could it be a case of pump and dump?I ask!
@SufficientlyP
youcan'tstopusnow
#1559 Posted : Tuesday, March 27, 2012 6:38:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Africa's top retirement fund in overseas investment push
South Africa's Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF) is considering investing around $22 billion outside the country to diversify its risks and some of that may go to other African countries and emerging markets.
http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE82Q03U20120327
Si walete hio pesa huku!smile
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Aguytrying
#1560 Posted : Wednesday, March 28, 2012 8:21:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
I am looking at the volumes on bluechips today and the top 5 look like this...

EQTY 5.12M
KCB 1.54M
TCL 1.28M
SCOM 5.42M
KENO 1.43M





Interesting volume building up on resistance on KCB, member and KK. These 3 want to go up...

The volume on tranny is also heavy. What's cooking here...


Bwana hisah. You once said that high volumes at the end of a rally means exit volume, what makes this different?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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