A day is a long time in politics. Let us hold our horses and stop making comments like ‘’I don’t know who will be president but I know who will not’’. If we can momentarily cage our deeply ingrained tribalism just for a moment and engage our cerebral matter without ethnic goggles, then our Makau Mutua-esque crystal balls might just become clearer.



Politics is the art of the impossible! Politicians are vociferous vampires and they will shamelessly do anything as long as it ensures that they will continue sucking Kenyans blood and satisfying their egocentric self interests.

We poor souls will continue paying taxes, driving cheap mitumba Japanese jalopies and hammering each other in blogospheres like crazed lunatics high on tribal cocaine while your so-called ‘’like-minded’’ HEROES / PREFFERED CANDIDATES fight in public BUT sip champagne and eat sushi TOGETHER behind closed doors when the sun sets while laughing at you- the holloi polloi.

Do you seriously think that Uhuruto, Wiper and Raila do not occasionally share mbuzi choma and Johnny Walker Blue Label TOGETHER? If Wazuan’s can organize ‘’Mbuzi Season 6’- why shouldn’t Uhuruto, Wiper and RAO organize ‘Caviar Season 2012’ in Runda and keep the media out behind those gated mansions?

Think my brothers and sisters befoe you engage your keyboards and mouths in siasa za pesa nane that won’t add one sufuria of ugali to your table or even a single White Cap baridi to your ’Mbuzi Season 6’.

Let us not delude ourselves. There are only two tribes in Kenya.
a) The RICH
b) The POOR.

The RICH simply create a political façade to feed enough doses of opium to the masses so that they can continue lording it over us with impunity. It’s a deliberate diversion; while you blindly focus on politics, pay your taxes dutifully and get poorer, they focus on looting public coffers, don’t pay taxes and accumulate more wealth than they know what to do with in several lifetimes.

In 2007, we had three major candidates; they are all in power currently. In 2012, all your HEROES / PREFFERED CANDIDATES will be in the ballot box either as ‘’like-minded’’ alliances or individuals but after the elections, they WILL ALL be in power in one way or another;

The rich take care of the rich, Munaelewa? Yaani najaribu kusema ‘’Birds of a (rich) feather flock together’’!! You will be busy wielding machetes in Rift Valley and ferociously banging your keyboards apportioning tribal blame while they will be sharing power at Serena Hotel and preparing to loot Kenya’s abused coffers for another five years AGAIN.

ODM currently has internal issues which could go anywhere, the permutations are endless;

a) A democratic mutually agreed up nomination process resulting in Musalia backing RAO or vice versa
b) Musalia doing a Kalonzo and high-tailing it at the last moment and running alone with a secret deal in place with PNU Alliance
c) RAO doing a Thika stadium and kicking Musalia out of ODM or getting yet another party.
d) Neither RAO or Musalia running as ODM candidate but backing anybody else like Jakoyo, Kalembe, Ngilu and Nyaga as the ‘’compromise’’ candidate.
e) Ad infinitum………………

PNU/ PNU Alliance / Wiper / KANU /URP/GNU/G7/ ‘’Like-Minded’’ Politicians

a) You think the current ODM nominations brouhaha are causing a ‘’Rift’’? You ain’t seen anything yet. Ngojeni mpaka the proverbial (dinosaur –esque) sh*t hits the fan when this group holds nominations/ selects its candidate; there will be many casualties and it’s impossible to predict what will happen. Only the most romantic Mills and Boon fanatic actually believes that all these strange bed-fellows will be together AFTER they hold their joint nominations. Questions abound;
I. Which (parties) nomination rules and method will they use? Delegates from each party? Borrow Musalia’s preferred model from ODM using each party’s delegates? It seems messy- unless they play Banta or Tapo and the winner gets it.
II. How will the ‘’running mate’’ be selected?
III. What does the constitution say about alliances?
IV. We have been here before; RAO, Kalonzo, Uhuruto et all were traversing the country TOGETHER but when they stew was ready and it was time to dish out and share- they split . Don’t they say that History repeats itself?
b) Will Kalonzo change his spots? He sold ODM in 2007 for a VP post (which he would have gotten anyway in ODM) after promising to ‘’die for his brother RAO’’; what has happened on the road to Damascus to make him step aside for anyone else now in 2012?
c) Kalonzo should not forget what Lucy told him after the Wikileaks saga- he has a guillotine around his neck. This is the same Lucy that can make PORK call a national televised conference to ‘’clarify’’ he has only ONE wife. I spotted Artur Magaryan behind him while he was making this statement.
d) Hague: Just suppose ICC decide to issue warrants of arrests and/or freeze assets?
e) Suppose the ‘’rebel ODM’’ mp’s go back to baba na mama?
f) Mutula has ‘’seen the light’’; suppose more of his ilk crawl off the woodwork and upset the apple cart too?
g) Tuju / Wamalwa as ‘’compromise’’ candidate? My personal opinion(which is worth five bob); Why waste your breadth, this is real life Kenya which has self-declared wenyewe- not a TV movie
h) Ad infinitum………………



It could happen?

a) Abdoulaye Wade, the PORK of Senegal, came into power as a ‘’doyen of opposition politics’’ and as a ‘’democrat’’ in 2000. Like a true politician, his true colours have out out and he has proven himself to be just another despot. As we speak, he has bulldozed his way into running for another Third Term while it’s clear the constitution says Two Terms only. He had initially tried to impose his son Karim to succeed him.

When you corner a lion, do you expect it to fight back or faint and die quietly? ICC is pursuing Muthaura and who knows what evidence he will produce to save his skin? Our current PORK is skating on very thin ice and it is very possible he could find himself huko Hague one day sharing tea with Gbagbo instead of his Sagana retirement heaven.

As a Mang’u and Makerere graduate, do you think PORK is a kumbavu who has not foreseen this (remote) possibility? Just suppose the current ‘’prayer rallies’’ are a red-herring meant to raise the tribal and political temperatures to prepare the ground for the actual objective and main event; the announcement that Kibaki is going for a Third Term to ‘’avert’’ the looming bloodshed in 2013?

If he had the balls to be sworn in at night under dubious circumstances while the nation bleed and 1.300 Kenyans were sacrificed, do you still think this is impossible?

b) Suppose we have a PNU/ PNU Alliance / Wiper / KANU /URP/GNU/G7/ ‘’Like-Minded’’ Politicians/ODM coalition? What then?


On a side note; what happened to John Michuki? He has disappeared from public view. These are the ‘’wenye-inchi’’ I worry about most more than the ubiquitous rubble-rousers like Kutuny, Midiwo and Isaac Ruto because you never know what they will do when you rattle them. ICC has rattled them. New Katiba has rattled them. The possibility of ‘Huyo mjaruo’ at State House has rattled them. Naogopa 2013

Haya, tumeni missiles ! Lakini sio za ukabila!

Am still digesting, but one question only. Why did you 'baptise' yourself Jaluo ??

Good analysis albeit with minute biases.

By and large exellent.

I also noted that you did not shy away from identifying yourself as a descendant of Nyanza.

Kudos

Very sobering indeed.
Though i dont agree with everythng u said, i do agree with a number of the issues raised here.
Good

So how exactly will Emilio vie? The law bars him from running!

@ Luttz, ali & Ngalaka...it is good you acknowledge Jaluo's observations, though there are things that one obviously wont agree with; based on party / tribal 'beliefs'
I rate this posting highly since it urges us to think beyond tribe or party. If only Kenyans could engage in a just a little bit of issue based politics.... well that's just a wish!