@ Ngalala
(forgive my keyboard diarrhea)Wacha nijaribu kujibu haya maswali mazito, lakini it’s good to announce beforehand that my head is trying to be neutral and pragmatic lakini my heart has it’s ‘’ my preferred candidate’’ since umesema tuwache hypocrisy.
What made the so called G7 come together?They said ‘’KANU was to rule for 100 years’’. I think the original KANU diehards are regrouping. These are the ones who sensed that KANU might loose in 2002 and joined the ‘’democracy bandwagon’’. They were just after self-preservation then but as they say, East or West, home is best. Original KANU is re-grouping. They are not really for the new katiba- they miss the good old days of State House being the epicenter of life in Kenya.
When did the Trio of Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto begin their alliance?They were conjoined deep in the belly of the original KANU. They just temporarily ‘’parted’’
Does it make sense then that Kalonzo’s main motivation is to gain from their ICC ills? Quotes for Wikileaks on Kalonzo:
"Musyoka seriously suggested that President Bush should call Kibaki to urge him to step aside," reads the cable sent by Mr Ranneberger to his superiors in Washington.
The cable says the ODM-K aspirant "offered nothing concrete, instead focusing on a litany of complaints about Kibaki and the other main presidential aspirant, Raila Odinga (ODM)".
Mr Musyoka also believed that an Odinga presidency would be a "revolution" in that it would lead to accelerated reforms including action against corruption and improved standards of living.
"The bottom line is that Musyoka realises he has no chance to win the election this round and sees his campaign as a prelude to running again for president in 2012 -- but at that time with support of the dominant Kikuyu community," according to the cable.
They were once branded KK, then KKK, was ICC an issue then as it is today?Yes. To quote from Chinua Achebes , ‘’ "Whenever you see a toad jumping in broad daylight, then know that something is after its life."
Do they have a common adversary? If so who is it?A new Kenya = New Katiba + No Impunity
The threat that made them come together, does it still exist?
Its growing larger by the day, like a Tsunami slowly getting closer.
Can any candidate picked by G7 beat the main adversary?Resoundingly. The official 2009 population census figures are that Kenya has 38,610,097 people.
According to the census, the top ethnic communities by numbers are Kikuyu at 6.6 million, Luhya 5.3 million, the Kalenjin at 5 million, and Luo 4 million,
Others are Kamba (3.9 million), Kenyan Somali (2.3 million), Kisii (2.2million), and Mijikenda at 1.9 million.
Add those numbers across the current ODM / PNU divide and you have your answer.
Given the battle ahead does the G7 have the luxury to be careless?They are already careless. They should have already accepted the bitter pill that the ICC group (innocent until proven guilty) are not viable for 2012 and should have have already identified their ‘’alternative’’ candidate and should have been marketing him aggressively in their prayer rallies- be it Eugene, Raphael or Kaparo.
Who amongst the G7 luminaries, stands to lose more if the election is won by their adversary?Kalonzo- He will disappear into oblivion because he is mistrusted both on the ODM and PNU sides. UK looks like an accidental politician; he doesn’t need politics to survive. I think he will be president of Kenya, maybe in 2017 or 2022. Ruto will be part of the next government, whether its PNU or ODM.
Can we visualise how matters would play themselves out in 2013 and beyond, vis a vis the interests of the G7 leaders?They will split and scatter to the seven corners of the earth.
'' The European condemns the Africans for having two wives yet he keeps two mistresses'' - Jomo Kenyatta