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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
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VituVingiSana
#131 Posted : Monday, January 30, 2012 11:02:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
The Profit Warning threw me off... especially after a huge increase in pax numbers for 3Q 2011-12...

That said, the bad news has been sorta accounted for...

2010-11 PAT 3.5bn then discount it by 35% divided by 462mn shares = 5/-

Price 20/-, EPS 5/- = PER of 4 = cheap

Look at from a longer term (I am not a trader/speculator) it means 25% Earnings Yield (matches T-Bills) yet there is upside in future years...

Short-term price movements? No idea but likely to drop...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#132 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 8:27:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I can see finally rights issue coming soon. I just wonder what the rights price will be since the share price has been on a faulty landing gear for months. Currently trading @18.95 with anatha pilot aka @deal having bailed out, the low of 2009 is likely to be tested. If the rights price is set @20 as rumoured, who will participate with the current market price sagging lower? Then later comes the dilution of the rights issue volume. This one is safer to watch from the sidelines until the dust settles even with a PE of 4 due to likely oil price spike.

http://www.nation.co.ke/...8/-/p381ynz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma
#133 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 9:42:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Count the beneficiaries,,kcb or roar,,scangroup and cfc stanbic their cut is guaranteed...its only unfortunate that later this year politics will be at peak.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Goliath
#134 Posted : Monday, February 06, 2012 12:42:57 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/30/2009
Posts: 77
Location: Nairobi
Am reliably informed that two airlines are cming on the Nairobi to Dubai route.. Fly Dubai( low cost wing of Emirates) and Etihad.
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youcan'tstopusnow
#135 Posted : Sunday, February 12, 2012 1:11:43 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Running an airline in Africa is not an easy task, at least not any more.
Passengers are demanding top-of-the-range safety and service, small old planes can no longer do the job and global airline brands are flying in for a piece of the already busy airspace.
Any African airline which wants to expand its fleet as a way to win the continent’s airspace faces a stiffer challenge in the coming years.
Airports can no longer hold the surging traffic while governments dilly-dally in fixing the capacity problem largely due to economic challenges which have hurt funding for capital intensive projects.

http://www.theeastafrica.../-/mne0waz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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ProverB
#136 Posted : Monday, February 13, 2012 11:39:19 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..my basis for all KQ bashing has been this..
+ That the stock isn't worth buying if they cannot translate pax numbers into profit..as of now..it is increasing passenger numbers and charging below cost..
**a maxim that only sonko (MP Makadara) seems to understand considering free transport to and from town for eastlands during election campaigns smile **

..thus excitement over new planes since 2005 hasn't translated into profit..neither has new routes..nor increased cargo tonnage..

..comparison to Ethiopian Air..or Quatari and other fliers is of no use if you ain't in capacity to invest in them. :)

Tito ought to go home.

..nothing justifies the rights issue..if increased transit cannot translate into profits.. and ofcourse..Hedging is not KQ's core business..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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itz
#137 Posted : Monday, February 13, 2012 5:01:12 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
jerry wrote:
guru267 wrote:
itz wrote:
KQ will dilute the shares further by doing the rights issue.investing in airlines can be very volatile or how would you explain a drop from 53 to now 20.i think it settles sub 15 after the share dilution but by all means if you are a gambler buy the shares at the current price


Wait for kesho my friend.. A new record low price will definitely print¡¡

@itz. How can you advise buying at 20/= when you expect 15/=???/

@jerry i was not advising buying KQ at 20.i said if you are a gambler ie. ready to lose your money then by all means buy it at 20.i think it settles under 15 after rights issue
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hisah
#138 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 8:44:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977


Intra-day lows of 17.50 hit today. This thing will bust the 2009 lows by next week. Still in no demand phase and the looming rights issue is not helping. Poor investors trapped here without an eject seat button...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#139 Posted : Friday, February 17, 2012 11:56:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Top 15 busiest airports in Africa. S.A and North Africa dominate with 11 airports. JKIA at number 8. Many airports managed by private companies
http://www.flight-africa...orts-in-africa.html?m=1
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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fellifel
#140 Posted : Friday, February 17, 2012 12:30:56 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/16/2010
Posts: 14
Location: Nairobi
ProverB wrote:
qw25041985 wrote:
I dont see why people are panicin about kQ's weak margins.If they posted weak magrins in very robust economies then there might be a reason to be concernd.But that isnot clearly the case.a couple of few years back the economy wasnt in the greatest shape so KQ shld be pardond.Atleast it didnt post record losses like BA.

.


Please note..i have not said do NOT buy KQ..just pointed out their core business fortunes are fading.
The core business is what defines the investment prospect.. KQ's core business has not been good over time..their making money on fuel derivatives though profitable... is not part of their core business..they may as well just quit air travel and go full on commodity trading if this fuel thingy seems so awesome!! Laughing out loudly
sliding margins imply management is out of their depth..no matter how good plans are they do not seem to have capacity to stem dropping margins!
But for share traders..bulk of decision to buy on sell is founded on investor behavior and ignorance..thus why "6 months down the line they will be rushing in"
As solid investment option.. Kq has alot to explain



If the shoe fits i wear it, if they'll make me money in 6months, all buy.
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