My guy! who is naive here

I'm not sure you know what you are talking about. You really need to understand how some of the G20 countries operate and then come back to your comment.

I just read the Highlights of Kenya’s Debt Strategy by Treasury present at the OECD Forum in Paris in Nov 2009.

The number of assumptions made in the strategy is mind-boggling. How do they manage with so many assumptions? No wonder am not an economist.

I think the assumptions are not too bad. I'm sure they try to build really complicated models (when sometimes things aren't so complex). But without the assumptions you'd probably be groping in the dark.

One good thing for sure is that although our debt is rising fast we're not yet facing a payment crisis. The external debt is concessionary (with payments suspended for many years) and domestic debt is increasingly becoming short (cause people expect inflation to fall).

In terms of making assumptions on debt sustainability... it shouldn't be too hard given the above. The debt strategy has been thrown out of whack momentarily becoz of inflation, but it's safe to assume we're not in bad shape with regard to paying off the cost of debt in the long term. In the short term... let's wait and see.

[quote=Scubidu]So the stats guys crunched the numbers. They told us Kenya debt to GDP was 56.6% in September 2011, then 46.6% in November 2011. I was shocked, in awe. We cut debt to GDP by 10% in two months? Or put another way GDP grew 19.1% in two months... keep cooking those figures boys (cos right now it's well done).

Download the reports below:

http://www.treasury.go.k...p;gid=108&Itemid=54[/quote]

KE Treasury houdini stuff... With ponzinomics anything is possible. Don't be shocked, this is not taught in normal schools you know
That GDP growth would even get the chings to camp here to learn the bewitching tricks...

yes. the change in November is 80b in that one month alone when shilling appreciated. That's a 10% change in debt from reval alone. very impressive. But that's can't explain the GDP ratio.