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CBK MPC Meet!!!
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Scubidu
#61 Posted : Sunday, December 04, 2011 3:59:55 PM
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Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
I will let Kenyans comment on Kenyan issues...apart from my investments here which I can pull out anytime...the rest is non of my business...I will keep my comments strictly stocks!


No worries mate. I didn't actually want you to talk about Kenyan issues, just Elasticity in general, just thot u wud say something cool.

Nway you're blog is a great source of info btw. Read your post about not being in cash... I agree with you. I often tell people to maintain a hybrid model, that sees them hold growth stocks and high coupon bonds (just by 6 and you have predictable cashflows for the year).

But right now, the market is ripe for defensive stocks. What if I invest in a dividend stock portfolio whose dividend payments grow faster than a rate of 20% per annum. Know any 5 stocks in Kenya or Namibia that can help me do that?

Is KQ a growth or dividend stock?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#62 Posted : Monday, December 05, 2011 9:10:02 AM

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smallfama wrote:
we are controlling liquidity driven inflation at the expense of long term solutions. Failing to plan is planning to fail since all our key economic drivers are left to the dogs. We need to enhance agricultural production and value addition, have legislation regulating arable land sub-divisions to non-profitable portions, boosting industrial dvt by lowering the cost of doing business; power et al. We need to have more large scale kenyan farmers and i mean KENYAN not some mzungu selling flowers and horticultural products and then keeping their proceeds abroad after using L Naivasha water. Rains were coming to easy the cost of food but now it is destroying crops and settlements because we cannot tap that water in dams for irrigation when rain goes. We should slap heavy tax on non essential commodities being imported from China. Ati ile mwiko unanunua Nakumatt is also made in China na huko they don't cook ugali nkt. The ministries of Finance and Planning should wake up and give lasting solutions!! I think Kenyans will be sober when voting nxt yr.

Applause Applause It really pisses me off to hear that we have floods in Western Kenya and no technology (or attempt thereof) to harvest that water. Agriculture is our main stay sector and we are too dependent on the weather yet Israel, basically a desert, is food secure what's wrong with that picture. Why can't we ask them for their technology since we have excellent relations ama that opportunity for someone to 'kula" won't be there!!!
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2012
#63 Posted : Monday, December 05, 2011 9:43:03 AM
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Joined: 12/9/2009
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If you ask me for my layman opinion I'd say somewhere, at some point and place our good Governor and his people made a mistake and printed a sizable amount of legal tender and are trying to mop it up now. That's the only thing that makes any amount of sense to me.

BBI will solve it :)
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guru267
#64 Posted : Monday, December 05, 2011 10:30:11 AM
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2012 wrote:
If you ask me for my layman opinion I'd say somewhere, at some point and place our good Governor and his people made a mistake and printed a sizable amount of legal tender and are trying to mop it up now. That's the only thing that makes any amount of sense to me.


@2012 This could be true since with rates at 18% they will definitely mop up a substantial amount of all that legal tender they threw at the economy last year..

The only thing is that inflation will continue to persist even after because quantitative easng was never the cause in the 1st place..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Mainat
#65 Posted : Monday, December 05, 2011 4:18:18 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Guru267-you might like to introduce a concept known as the law of diminishing marginal returns. You see imho, only the first 5% increase had serious impact on the CBK mandates of controlling inflation or fostering a stable financial system and supporting economic growth. The rest of the increases have some impact but negligible impact imho. The worst thing is that CBK has acted like it doesn’t have any other short-term monetary tools that it can use to control money supply like reserve ratio, overnight window and even t-bills. End result, the additional 150bps from last week have nil impact on the fx rate. On inflation, well, the MPC credibility has gone downwards, inflation will only head downwards once the food from the current rain comes to our collective tables. And that is assuming oil does not go as far north ($150) as predicted it’d earlier this month.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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mkonomtupu
#66 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2011 9:56:40 AM
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Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
the deal wrote:
I will let Kenyans comment on Kenyan issues...apart from my investments here which I can pull out anytime...the rest is non of my business...I will keep my comments strictly stocks!


@deal you tried investing in the real kenyan economy sometime this year and you saw it's not for the faint-hearted. this economy is resilient because no matter how much the GoK messes up the ordinary wanjiku and SME sector has learnt to adapt and keep going. Just like the IMF you only care about the investments which you can pull out anytime. With that let me head to river road and help my friend sell some stuff he imported at Kshs 104 dollar rate. this stuff needs to go before xmas otherwise he goes bankrupt with my cash
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#67 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2011 10:26:37 AM

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@the deal, dude we need your insight as an outsider on some of the Kenyan issues so don't hold back, that's why it's a blog...some of us get educated while others are insulted!! do your thing deal!!
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#68 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 11:47:30 AM

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here we are at it again. market consensus is a neutral in that the CBK will not change the CBR but we are taking the contrarian view. We place a 60% chance of an increase in the range of 100bp-150bp, 30% of a no change and 10% of a reduction. What are your views on this?
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Mainat
#69 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 12:04:59 PM
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Hold@18% within expectation that CBR will head downwards in Feb. 18% borrowing means Kenya Plc is making a loss since its virtually unheard of for an economy to grow at anything more than 10% per year.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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mwekez@ji
#70 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 5:51:43 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
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Committee considered it necessary to maintain its current tight monetary policy stance and thus retained the CBR rate at 18% to provide time for the adjustments in the CBR to have their full impact together with the liquidity management instruments in place

http://www.centralbank.go.ke/do...0January%2011%202012.pdf
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Mainat
#71 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 6:47:52 PM
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Going by the MPC language, no imminent easing i.e. not before April. I think we'll below par growth (i.e. 3%) only if:
1) It rains heavily in the Feb-May rainy season
2) GE is held in Aug 2012
3) No GE controversy
4) Euro crisis is resolved (i.e. no exits or junk credit rating status for Espana or Mafia)
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Cde Monomotapa
#72 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 7:11:13 PM
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Let's also remember that savings from dropping inflation is also a great stimulus to our largely cash economy.
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Cde Monomotapa
#73 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 7:20:26 PM
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Let's also remember that savings from dropping inflation is also a great stimulus to our largely cash economy.

An economy of 55K credit cards, 7.1M debit cards (2010) & 16M* Mobile cash accounts smile
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hisah
#74 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2012 4:15:14 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
Going by the MPC language, no imminent easing i.e. not before April. I think we'll below par growth (i.e. 3%) only if:
1) It rains heavily in the Feb-May rainy season
2) GE is held in Aug 2012
3) No GE controversy
4) Euro crisis is resolved (i.e. no exits or junk credit rating status for Espana or Mafia)

CBK and Treasury should start looking for rain making consultants asap since the KE econ is very dependent on this fiscal tool Think d'oh!
I can see a fork in terms of protests (life hardships as a cause) that could make the GE slippery to handle since the KDF venture has not succeeded in distracting people's attention on the immediate economical distress...

As for euroland - PIIGS are already junk credit victims only that the 'trustworthy' rating agencies are praying for a miracle on how not to break the news on this known situation... Grecian 2yr bond yields are already heading towards 200%... 1yr bond yields will hit 500% then 1000% when sh** hits the fan and we go into debt forgiving mode sinkhole... If I were a vulture preying on Greece, I'd have died of starvation by now...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#75 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2012 11:03:43 AM

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Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Going by the MPC language, no imminent easing i.e. not before April. I think we'll below par growth (i.e. 3%) only if:
1) It rains heavily in the Feb-May rainy season
2) GE is held in Aug 2012
3) No GE controversy
4) Euro crisis is resolved (i.e. no exits or junk credit rating status for Espana or Mafia)

CBK and Treasury should start looking for rain making consultants asap since the KE econ is very dependent on this fiscal tool Think d'oh!
I can see a fork in terms of protests (life hardships as a cause) that could make the GE slippery to handle since the KDF venture has not succeeded in distracting people's attention on the immediate economical distress...

As for euroland - PIIGS are already junk credit victims only that the 'trustworthy' rating agencies are praying for a miracle on how not to break the news on this known situation... Grecian 2yr bond yields are already heading towards 200%... 1yr bond yields will hit 500% then 1000% when sh** hits the fan and we go into debt forgiving mode sinkhole... If I were a vulture preying on Greece, I'd have died of starvation by now...

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly It really sickens me that we our economy is still weather dependent since countries like Israel are a desert yet they are food sufficient, why can't we ask for their technology as I'm sure we have strong relations?!!
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mwekez@ji
#76 Posted : Wednesday, February 01, 2012 10:22:20 AM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Feb meeting is here and CBR is expected to be held contant for a second month after six increases last year.

However,

Quote:
The central bank is under pressure to lower interest rates to support the economy. Acting Finance Minister Robinson Githae said on Jan. 30 higher interest rates are “supposed to be a temporary measure.”

“Once the excess liquidity has been mopped we should be able to see a reduction in interest rates which is important to everybody,” Githae said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...creases-curb-prices.html
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mwekez@ji
#77 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 8:48:37 AM
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CBR maintained @18% as expected.

Holders of bank stockers be wary because MPC had the following message for you

"Private sector credit growth has declined but needs to slow down further to dampen demand-related inflation pressures."

http://www.centralbank.go.ke/do...0January%2011%202012.pdf
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synergia
#78 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2012 4:03:23 PM
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MPC Remains unchanged at 18 % i think this is a good move they can change it from next month

http://www.centralbank.g...%20March%206,%202012.pdf
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KulaRaha
#79 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2012 4:05:39 PM
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Petrol pump prices will go up this month...I wonder how they will reduce CBR next month.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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synergia
#80 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2012 4:11:09 PM
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Posts: 34
KulaRaha wrote:
Petrol pump prices will go up this month...I wonder how they will reduce CBR next month.


Mpigs really wanted that rate brought down and i know one way or the other they are gonna have their way with it,im even shocked that it did not happen in todays meeting.
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