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The Aftermath of the ICC confirmations: A prediction
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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I am not a political strategist ....but based no my knowledge of Kenya politics.... the following are the Scenarios of the consequences of the above ... in my opinion.
Uhuru and Ruto - both cases are confirmed:
These 2 come together and PNU alliance gets life - Kalonzo is nominated as the flag bearer through high level agreement. The 2 will need someone who can ensure ICC is frustrated. Also join forces to ensure Raila is locked out completely...KALONO becomes president.
Uhuru and Ruto - both cases NOT Confirmed:
These 2 go out of the country to the Hague to receive the formal judgement.... they come back together ....arriving at JKIA together to a huge welcome from Kikuyu and Karenjin communities.... a grand euphoria is created as the 2 agree to be in one party as president and VP..... UHURU becomes President.
Uhuru is Confirmed, and Ruto's Case is dropped.
The Kikuyu will take this as unfair to their son.... and seek to support Uhuru or anyone he supports for president. Raila will be able to get majority of the Kalenjins convincing them that the common enemy remains as was in 2007.....RAILA Becomes President.
Uhuru's case is Dropped, Ruto is Confirmed.
Kalenjin become resentful....enemity with Kikuyu continues, they cannot stand a Raila president... Kikuyu vote for Uhuru, Kalenjin vote for Kalonzo, some vote for Saitoti.
No outright winner ....not easy to know who will win...the race is wide open.
What do you think?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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I guess one of the 3 people will become the next president of Kenya. Kalonzo, Raila and Uhuru. Kenyan politics..... I do not see anyone else giving us a surprise here. It must be one of the 3.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/26/2009 Posts: 1,793
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the elections will be determined by the run-off. There will be no winner in the first round....if kalonzo works hard enough to emerge second after agwambo, he will bag it clean. If uhuru is confirmed, and martha runs up and down the mt kenya villages, she can consolidate the vote and go on to win other regions....dotting the whole country with no clear strategy is a negative for her campaigns....if she emerges second to agwambo, agwambo wins. If WR emerges second during the first round, he will not floor agwambo in the run-off. If the runoff is between uk and agwambo, agwambo wins Somehow, a presidency from outside the mt kenya region is more welcome for the whole country....it will help reduce discrimination of central guys from government jobs like it initially happened with the recently appointed KRA boss. Btw; Factoring in the runoffs, if the election is held in march 2013 and there is a runoff, the earliest we can get another president is July 2013
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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I doubt Martha Karua is going anywhere.... irrespective of the ICC outcome. Same with Peter Kenneth and Raphael Tuju.....They are yet to be initiated into the Aristocracy..... Kenyan politics iko na wenyewe.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/13/2011 Posts: 660
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saitoti could be compromise candidate. and he is said to be wealthy. has contacts thanks to his days in kanu and his current ministerial docket. but i think mzungus dont like him
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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kenmac, I agree with your view, infact the UK numbers going uo in the pollsters has always been good news to Raila camp!!!!.......kalonzo na shida yake yote remains the big challenge to the PM!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2010 Posts: 939 Location: Nai
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si mgoje tu 1.30 we deal with facts!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,330 Location: Masada
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Where do you guyz place madame Kamenchu?The only gorgeus president designate. Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/14/2007 Posts: 4,152
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kenmac wrote:the elections will be determined by the run-off. There will be no winner in the first round....if kalonzo works hard enough to emerge second after agwambo, he will bag it clean.
If uhuru is confirmed, and martha runs up and down the mt kenya villages, she can consolidate the vote and go on to win other regions....dotting the whole country with no clear strategy is a negative for her campaigns....if she emerges second to agwambo, agwambo wins.
If WR emerges second during the first round, he will not floor agwambo in the run-off.
If the runoff is between uk and agwambo, agwambo wins
Somehow, a presidency from outside the mt kenya region is more welcome for the whole country....it will help reduce discrimination of central guys from government jobs like it initially happened with the recently appointed KRA boss.
First of all i don't believe Martha Karua is a threat to UK in Mt Kenya.....infact she has a higher chance of getting more votes outside Gema than in her own backyard. A run-off between RAO and UK will be a very tricky affair for both candidates because it will be about alliances. The only prediction we can make right now is who will win the first round, lakini run-off can go either way. Alot will also depend on how you campaign towards the elections because it will be very difficult to convince someone who didn't vote for you in the first instance to give you a chance....especially if their preferred canddae decides to back someone else. Hii mambo ya sijui a Presidency outside Mt Kenya was there in 2007 so i don't expect anything new there. Tribalism cannot be solved by changing a Kikuyu with a Luhya, Luo or Kalenjin.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/9/2008 Posts: 2,824
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TiggerTiggy wrote:saitoti could be compromise candidate. and he is said to be wealthy. has contacts thanks to his days in kanu and his current ministerial docket. but i think mzungus dont like him yawa, do the mzungus vote or we vote? sasa if we decide to vote for madam kamenchu, mzungu anatokea wapi? cant we ever do our things without thinking what the mzungu like? When I have money, I get rid of it quickly, lest it find a way into my heart.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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There goes...Raila Presidency......
Confirmation of Uhuru and Ruto.....means ...Raila will be the president that Kenya will never have.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Raila should kiss his Presidential ambitions goodbye.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,330 Location: Masada
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The Vulture Kalonzo will rule us next year,we like or not, not unless @Kamenchu pulls a surprise!!! Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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With a stroke of a pen the ICC has just brought a possibility of another Kikuyu Presidency after Kibaki......
This would not have been possible before.... but now.... watch this space.... If the courts go ahead and rule that Uhuru and Ruto can run..... these 2 guys have just been put together..... as they will take the Presidency and VP together in the first round of elections..... you can almost take that to the bank.
They must be president and vp before any trials have been concluded.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/27/2010 Posts: 266 Location: Nairobi
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Impunity wrote:The Vulture Kalonzo will rule us next year,we like or not, not unless @Kamenchu pulls a surprise!!! Kalonzo must have done the Ezekiel Kemboi dance after the confirmations were read.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/8/2011 Posts: 482 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: User Joined: 11/10/2010 Posts: 550 Location: Junction
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Lolest! wrote:Raila should kiss his Presidential ambitions goodbye. Why should that be the case? By inference, the man is all that Mr Phantom is not: an untrustworthy radical, divisive, too many enemies, a dictator, and a persistent liar...Gaitho dialogues.
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Rank: User Joined: 11/10/2010 Posts: 550 Location: Junction
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Caramba wrote:Impunity wrote:The Vulture Kalonzo will rule us next year,we like or not, not unless @Kamenchu pulls a surprise!!! Kalonzo must have done the Ezekiel Kemboi dance after the confirmations were read. And Kalonzo alipitia katikati yao. By inference, the man is all that Mr Phantom is not: an untrustworthy radical, divisive, too many enemies, a dictator, and a persistent liar...Gaitho dialogues.
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Rank: User Joined: 11/10/2010 Posts: 550 Location: Junction
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Liv wrote:With a stroke of a pen the ICC has just brought a possibility of another Kikuyu Presidency after Kibaki......
This would not have been possible before.... but now.... watch this space.... If the courts go ahead and rule that Uhuru and Ruto can run..... these 2 guys have just been put together..... as they will take the Presidency and VP together in the first round of elections..... you can almost take that to the bank.
They must be president and vp before any trials have been concluded.
How long does the case take so that we can estimate if the verdict will collide with elections. By inference, the man is all that Mr Phantom is not: an untrustworthy radical, divisive, too many enemies, a dictator, and a persistent liar...Gaitho dialogues.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/14/2007 Posts: 4,152
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Chance of a lifetime has just presented itself to Kalonzo, if only he can make up his mind on what he wants. He has clean record and is one of the few who were not involved or mentioned in the PEV. I'm certain UK and WR supporters wouldn't have a problem voting for the guy if only he shows a little more conviction.
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The Aftermath of the ICC confirmations: A prediction
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