I am not a political strategist ....but based no my knowledge of Kenya politics.... the following are the Scenarios of the consequences of the above ... in my opinion.

Uhuru and Ruto - both cases are confirmed:
These 2 come together and PNU alliance gets life - Kalonzo is nominated as the flag bearer through high level agreement. The 2 will need someone who can ensure ICC is frustrated. Also join forces to ensure Raila is locked out completely...KALONO becomes president.

Uhuru and Ruto - both cases NOT Confirmed:
These 2 go out of the country to the Hague to receive the formal judgement.... they come back together ....arriving at JKIA together to a huge welcome from Kikuyu and Karenjin communities.... a grand euphoria is created as the 2 agree to be in one party as president and VP..... UHURU becomes President.

Uhuru is Confirmed, and Ruto's Case is dropped.
The Kikuyu will take this as unfair to their son.... and seek to support Uhuru or anyone he supports for president. Raila will be able to get majority of the Kalenjins convincing them that the common enemy remains as was in 2007.....RAILA Becomes President.

Uhuru's case is Dropped, Ruto is Confirmed.
Kalenjin become resentful....enemity with Kikuyu continues, they cannot stand a Raila president... Kikuyu vote for Uhuru, Kalenjin vote for Kalonzo, some vote for Saitoti.
No outright winner ....not easy to know who will win...the race is wide open.

What do you think?

the elections will be determined by the run-off. There will be no winner in the first round....if kalonzo works hard enough to emerge second after agwambo, he will bag it clean.

If uhuru is confirmed, and martha runs up and down the mt kenya villages, she can consolidate the vote and go on to win other regions....dotting the whole country with no clear strategy is a negative for her campaigns....if she emerges second to agwambo, agwambo wins.

If WR emerges second during the first round, he will not floor agwambo in the run-off.

If the runoff is between uk and agwambo, agwambo wins

Somehow, a presidency from outside the mt kenya region is more welcome for the whole country....it will help reduce discrimination of central guys from government jobs like it initially happened with the recently appointed KRA boss.


Btw; Factoring in the runoffs, if the election is held in march 2013 and there is a runoff, the earliest we can get another president is July 2013

saitoti could be compromise candidate. and he is said to be wealthy. has contacts thanks to his days in kanu and his current ministerial docket. but i think mzungus dont like him

si mgoje tu 1.30 we deal with facts!

First of all i don't believe Martha Karua is a threat to UK in Mt Kenya.....infact she has a higher chance of getting more votes outside Gema than in her own backyard.

A run-off between RAO and UK will be a very tricky affair for both candidates because it will be about alliances. The only prediction we can make right now is who will win the first round, lakini run-off can go either way. Alot will also depend on how you campaign towards the elections because it will be very difficult to convince someone who didn't vote for you in the first instance to give you a chance....especially if their preferred canddae decides to back someone else.

Hii mambo ya sijui a Presidency outside Mt Kenya was there in 2007 so i don't expect anything new there. Tribalism cannot be solved by changing a Kikuyu with a Luhya, Luo or Kalenjin.