Wazua
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The long bear
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Investor fatigue might trigger a bull run. ;-)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Investor fatigue might trigger a bull run. ;-) Bado bad politics and droplet biz news and NSE twitter going postless for weeks & brokers calling or mailing to buy buy buy... Those bear extremes have not been hit... Over time I've added tbills breaching 25%. Climax most likely at 30%.
But with kdf & election now in 2013, reading the tape is now hazy  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Investor fatigue might trigger a bull run. ;-) Bado bad politics and droplet biz news and NSE twitter going postless for weeks & brokers calling or mailing to buy buy buy... Those bear extremes have not been hit... Over time I've added tbills breaching 25%. Climax most likely at 30%.
But with kdf & election now in 2013, reading the tape is now hazy Both ways i'm good & even better when pple r still going to work but the mkt is down. Its dividend income season, best re-invested in a bear 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@ Cde. Amen. Dividend income season. wa t-bills and traders waendelee na kazi. I'm also happy i get another 12 months to plough more into the bear. Yay. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Aguytrying wrote:@ Cde. Amen. Dividend income season. wa t-bills and traders waendelee na kazi. I'm also happy i get another 12 months to plough more into the bear. Yay. will also be swinging my mind back n' forth the NSE & ZSE 
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/28/2006 Posts: 25 Location: Nairobi Kenya
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Mainat wrote:Having looked at the market over the last 2/3 months, I think the NSE is unlikely to rise above 4,050 until 2013.
My reasons:
1. The political noise levels have frightened our banks from lending to the common mwananchi which means the economy won’t grow by more than 4.5%-5% and the banks themselves won’t make the kind of profits they did last year. The current noises are like having a neighbor who beats his wife every evening. He keeps you awake and you fear he may whip one evening. Banks are now chasing government securities and will continue to do so supported by
2. Higher interest rates: GoK overspend will continue between now and the new govt in 2013. This will entail higher borrowing (UK has already alluded to this in his budget statement last month).
3. Inflation is going one way: oil prices will probably standing heading downwards, but I expect inflation to stay because of
4. Patchy rains: our climate has changed and I expect rains to be followed by longer dry periods. We can change this (plant more trees), but in the meantime, we’ll see a higher population chasing less food. Patchy rains is also a problem given dependency on hydropower.
 NSE shall continue .....as said
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Even with bearish performance by the NSE, there have been a few gems. I can point on EABL, ARM, Scangroup. For those who had there money in these stocks are smiling while some of us who speculated on Access are wondering why they never listened to Mzee Young.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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QW25081985 wrote:Mainat wrote:Mark your cards. If we go for March/June 2013, the bear will last as long if not longer. We won't see 3,700 until then the bear market isnot tied to just elections but to also the economic conditions . am praying we see 27xx levels ..or atleast close ... … or see 25xx, or even better, sub 25xx
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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After the weekend mass Eurozone downgrade...http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/16/us-markets-global-idUSTRE7BB02E20120116
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