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Treasury Bills Investing-Procedure?
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Nabwire wrote:So if its at 20% PA, is this a fixed rate or is there a possibillity that when you rollover, the rate may have been adjusted downwards to say 13%??? Im pretty sure these rates fluctuate meaning you will be a net loser when the rates eventually adjust downwards. It just doesnt make sense to me to tie your money in a Tbill and lament when the stock market turns around and you have to buy stocks at a higher price coz you were all tied up. But to each her own. This is why you have 91, 182 & 364 day tbill flavors. Since I dont trust the current treasury guys, I've been in 91 day bill until further notice... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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Still doesnt make sense, in order to enjoy the 20% interest you have to rollover, so say you got into the 91 then the market starts ticking up, do you cash out?? You will have gotten just 5%!! And by the way can you cash out say at the second month or you have to stay put till the 91 days are up? This kind of investing would only make sense at the beginning of a bear/ depression not towards the end.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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Plus Tbills dont give dividends!! The only way I would get into them is if I had a tonne of cash and we were in the beginning of a recession/ depression. But then again, the stock prices would be so awesome that I would still prefer stocks.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Nabwire - It depends with your investment ideology. Last yr my equity exit trigger was if the USDKES struck 90. Once that happened, I got off the market & went to tbills. Yes, the returns are not as rosy as equities, but my preference is capital preservation. I'm also not into buy & hold, but more of a trader thus capital gains appeals to me than dividends. As you state, one can be left by the bus during recovery, but that's a calculated risk. On 182 & 364 day bills, it gets tricky since the bull could have gained some distance. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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OK I see, I forgot you are a trader.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/23/2010 Posts: 1,229
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hisah wrote:Nabwire wrote:So if its at 20% PA, is this a fixed rate or is there a possibillity that when you rollover, the rate may have been adjusted downwards to say 13%??? Im pretty sure these rates fluctuate meaning you will be a net loser when the rates eventually adjust downwards. It just doesnt make sense to me to tie your money in a Tbill and lament when the stock market turns around and you have to buy stocks at a higher price coz you were all tied up. But to each her own. This is why you have 91, 182 & 364 day tbill flavors. Since I dont trust the current treasury guys, I've been in 91 day bill until further notice... Exactly where I am. And I staggered my T/Bills too - Didnt tie all my cash in one T/Bill. I have different ones maturing at different times to prevent all of it being tied up for 91 days. @ Nabwire...there's been a thread running here on how to tell when the stock market has bottomed - a bit like reading tea leaves - no one can tell when. When the interest rates on government securities begin to fall, I'll look to see how the stock market is behaving.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/23/2010 Posts: 1,229
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hisah wrote:For Sport wrote:91 day T/Bill now at 20 % And I hope you are not still taking notes Not to worry, I'm a very quick study..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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Nabwire wrote:Still doesnt make sense, in order to enjoy the 20% interest you have to rollover, so say you got into the 91 then the market starts ticking up, do you cash out?? You will have gotten just 5%!! And by the way can you cash out say at the second month or you have to stay put till the 91 days are up? This kind of investing would only make sense at the beginning of a bear/ depression not towards the end. I think you are either unfamiliar with T/bills or you are just trying to scare pple out so that you can gain from them alone...which risk free investment currently can give you 20% return P.a hustle free. The T/bills are discounted hence you get your cash upfront then wait for your face value cash. I am going to buy 182 day T/bill with the minimum amount (100k) which means at a price of 90 per 100 am going to pocket around 9k upfront and wait for my 100k in 6 month..this is sweet...although I think the upcoming issues will be more delicious...but for now am plunging in. you can actually recall you T/bill b4 the maturity date but CBK will penalize you for that. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/23/2010 Posts: 1,229
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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As inflation eases so will the t.bill rates as dividend yields compound by a further 20%
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:As inflation eases so will the t.bill rates as dividend yields compound by a further 20% True. But with such a huge deficit and a funds hungry gok, I dont expect the rates of the tbills & 2yr bond to top out soon even with inflation slowly trimming back. Also note that should the econ continue bleeding, most firms wont be able to maintain the same dividend policy due to trimmed revenues.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:As inflation eases so will the t.bill rates as dividend yields compound by a further 20% True. But with such a huge deficit and a funds hungry gok, I dont expect the rates of the tbills & 2yr bond to top out soon even with inflation slowly trimming back. Also note that should the econ continue bleeding, most firms wont be able to maintain the same dividend policy due to trimmed revenues. Sawa. We talk again in June 2012 but just remember it is CBK itself controling the KES.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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We all know that it is inflation that has slowed down the economy & not that we don't have things to do here - we do. 2ndly and historically, GoK Bills & Bond rates have been independent of CBR & Bank lending rates. P.S: With the crack of long rains in April, many will be left behind with their Bills & Bonds. Let's see.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:We all know that it is inflation that has slowed down the economy & not that we don't have things to do here - we do. 2ndly and historically, GoK Bills & Bond rates have been independent of CBR & Bank lending rates. P.S: With the crack of long rains in April, many will be left behind with their Bills & Bonds. Let's see. I've said this before - CBK should hire rainmakers since rain in this econ is a major tool... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Untill the day we'll be highly industrialized in the EAC, rain will remain the most broad-based productivity factor in our economies.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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hisah wrote:Nabwire wrote:So if its at 20% PA, is this a fixed rate or is there a possibillity that when you rollover, the rate may have been adjusted downwards to say 13%??? Im pretty sure these rates fluctuate meaning you will be a net loser when the rates eventually adjust downwards. It just doesnt make sense to me to tie your money in a Tbill and lament when the stock market turns around and you have to buy stocks at a higher price coz you were all tied up. But to each her own. This is why you have 91, 182 & 364 day tbill flavors. Since I dont trust the current treasury guys, I've been in 91 day bill until further notice... What do you mean by this? That you would not be shocked if the rates suddenly began going down? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:hisah wrote:Nabwire wrote:So if its at 20% PA, is this a fixed rate or is there a possibillity that when you rollover, the rate may have been adjusted downwards to say 13%??? Im pretty sure these rates fluctuate meaning you will be a net loser when the rates eventually adjust downwards. It just doesnt make sense to me to tie your money in a Tbill and lament when the stock market turns around and you have to buy stocks at a higher price coz you were all tied up. But to each her own. This is why you have 91, 182 & 364 day tbill flavors. Since I dont trust the current treasury guys, I've been in 91 day bill until further notice... What do you mean by this? That you would not be shocked if the rates suddenly began going down?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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“I expect that the yields on the Treasury Bills will rise to 35 per cent because the State will still borrow at the rates investors will demand,” said Mr Franklin who is also the managing director of the investment advisory firm. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:hisah wrote:Nabwire wrote:So if its at 20% PA, is this a fixed rate or is there a possibillity that when you rollover, the rate may have been adjusted downwards to say 13%??? Im pretty sure these rates fluctuate meaning you will be a net loser when the rates eventually adjust downwards. It just doesnt make sense to me to tie your money in a Tbill and lament when the stock market turns around and you have to buy stocks at a higher price coz you were all tied up. But to each her own. This is why you have 91, 182 & 364 day tbill flavors. Since I dont trust the current treasury guys, I've been in 91 day bill until further notice... What do you mean by this? That you would not be shocked if the rates suddenly began going down? The way they handled the situation as things came to a disorderly finale with forex & inflation - price stability. Treasury blame games were a red flag to me... Therefore I cant lend gok me useless siringi for more than 91 days on tbills. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:As inflation eases so will the t.bill rates as dividend yields compound by a further 20% True. But with such a huge deficit and a funds hungry gok, I dont expect the rates of the tbills & 2yr bond to top out soon even with inflation slowly trimming back. Also note that should the econ continue bleeding, most firms wont be able to maintain the same dividend policy due to trimmed revenues. Sawa. We talk again in June 2012 but just remember it is CBK itself controling the KES. Sawa. This is why I'm skeptical of KES. No CB has ever successfully beaten the market over time. SNB & BOJ are the best examples so far.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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