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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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QW25081985 wrote:hisah wrote:Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107... wow ! i wish you cld show charts showin that ...what would cause that ? The KES strength is artificial and not economy backed. If indeed KES is strong I dare CBK to remove the forex controls implemented a while ago when USDKES hit the 107 high. Looking at the lacklustre appetite for gok treasury paper also shows 'a lot' of confidence on KES 
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:QW25081985 wrote:hisah wrote:Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107... wow ! i wish you cld show charts showin that ...what would cause that ? The KES strength is artificial and not economy backed. If indeed KES is strong I dare CBK to remove the forex controls implemented a while ago when USDKES hit the 107 high. Looking at the lacklustre appetite for gok treasury paper also shows 'a lot' of confidence on KES
And the KES questionable strength tape continues rolling...
http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/7o5bpdz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Our prof has another counterpart made in Turkey... Both are still trying to figure out this dollarizing monster... http://www.bloomberg.com...rn-over-bank-policy.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/3/2010 Posts: 69
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The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...n&z=m&q=l&c=
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Kizee - if fx controls are removed, KES will be shorted globally. So I'm looking from the external on fx. Obviously CBK will be forced to monetize at some point, which will weaken KES further. So those 2 (monetize & fx control removal) will see KES retest those 107 highs and surpassing them depending on the bitter herbs of the economical performance as the year rolls by. Update - even with tight fx controls USDKES is still experiencing sharp moves. So for how long will the dollars be sold? Infinity... http://www.businessdaily.../-/589p5yz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:@Kizee - if fx controls are removed, KES will be shorted globally. So I'm looking from the external on fx. Obviously CBK will be forced to monetize at some point, which will weaken KES further. So those 2 (monetize & fx control removal) will see KES retest those 107 highs and surpassing them depending on the bitter herbs of the economical performance as the year rolls by. Update - even with tight fx controls USDKES is still experiencing sharp moves. So for how long will the dollars be sold? Infinity... http://www.businessdaily.../-/589p5yz/-/index.html
OK fist understand that a 2pct move for kes isn't particularly sharp anymore...cbk monetize, i don't think so..at least not in 2012..lift controls...perfect short kes and fund at 20 percent? wud u rather pay or receive 20 percent? wud u rather receive a guaranteed 20pct or ride ur luck and hope for 20pct depreciation TO JUST BREAK EVEN? kumbuka at 108 or just breaking even..ok guess u cud short(kes) now at say 88 and target 105.6..to break even and hope cbk monetize..or u cud short at 88(usd) pick up yield, and if cbk monetize u get capital gains on ur yields....  just sayin
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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kes was waaay overbot at 83 levels but now its quickly becoming oversold(rsi at 60)..i wud rather play the range than expect a sharp break either way heres ur chart...im not near my reuters so i had to use a web generated chart http://www.forexpros.com...s/usd-kes-advanced-chart
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/8/2009 Posts: 170
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the deal wrote:If i was to use the balance of payment (BoP) valuation model to value the Shilling its OVERVALUED at the current exchange rates unless the BoP shrinks due to the current tightening I will buy USD in 2012. This is interesting... please walk us through your BoP valuation model.... and what does it spit out as "intrinsic value" for USD/KES anyway?
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/8/2009 Posts: 170
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hisah wrote:Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107... Methinks it looks more like USDJPY circa 1994 after the carry-trade crashed on ... yes you guessed it .. funding stress. If that's the case, then a return to and blow-out above 107 levels in 2012 is unlikely... you could, at worst, see 102.. absolute worst 105..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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why would the kenya shilling suddenly become over valued at 83 yet it has been all the yrs?? what are these factors, that have not occured in all these yrs, that suddenly make it over in a period of less than one yr!!! LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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anything above 85 is maybe because of panic buying and speculation because seriously what has so drastically changed anyway??? LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:@Kizee - if fx controls are removed, KES will be shorted globally. So I'm looking from the external on fx. Obviously CBK will be forced to monetize at some point, which will weaken KES further. So those 2 (monetize & fx control removal) will see KES retest those 107 highs and surpassing them depending on the bitter herbs of the economical performance as the year rolls by. Update - even with tight fx controls USDKES is still experiencing sharp moves. So for how long will the dollars be sold? Infinity... http://www.businessdaily.../-/589p5yz/-/index.html
OK fist understand that a 2pct move for kes isn't particularly sharp anymore...cbk monetize, i don't think so..at least not in 2012..lift controls...perfect short kes and fund at 20 percent? wud u rather pay or receive 20 percent? wud u rather receive a guaranteed 20pct or ride ur luck and hope for 20pct depreciation TO JUST BREAK EVEN? kumbuka at 108 or just breaking even..ok guess u cud short(kes) now at say 88 and target 105.6..to break even and hope cbk monetize..or u cud short at 88(usd) pick up yield, and if cbk monetize u get capital gains on ur yields.... just sayin From what we saw last yr, I expect cbk to be disorderly... Yap, I'm riding on luck here $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted? Um, excuse me, pls, just wondering, when did money supply get constricted? From what I see loans are flowing, as is spending...so, um, this constriction, is it real? Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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drake wrote:hisah wrote:Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107... Methinks it looks more like USDJPY circa 1994 after the carry-trade crashed on ... yes you guessed it .. funding stress. If that's the case, then a return to and blow-out above 107 levels in 2012 is unlikely... you could, at worst, see 102.. absolute worst 105.. Hmmm... interesting now that I've had a look at the said USDJPY time frame. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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KulaRaha wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted? Um, excuse me, pls, just wondering, when did money supply get constricted? From what I see loans are flowing, as is spending...so, um, this constriction, is it real? Wow! You mean loans are flowing with the neck break lending rates!? Tbills @20%... Something is not adding up...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/8/2009 Posts: 170
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Allow me to stray a bit... anyone seen the USD/UGX (Uganda Shilling) chart? I see a trade went through at 1345? Fat finger error?
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/8/2009 Posts: 170
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hisah wrote:drake wrote:hisah wrote:Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107... Methinks it looks more like USDJPY circa 1994 after the carry-trade crashed on ... yes you guessed it .. funding stress. If that's the case, then a return to and blow-out above 107 levels in 2012 is unlikely... you could, at worst, see 102.. absolute worst 105.. Hmmm... interesting now that I've had a look at the said USDJPY time frame. My sentiments exactly: We're closing 2012 circa 88.XX... Mark it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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hisah wrote:KulaRaha wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:[quote=RVP]The dollar is on the ascent again. Now at 86.60 http://finance.yahoo.com...&z=m&q=l&c=[/quote] When $/KES gets back to 100 after a long bruising brawl with CBK, thats when the panic will restart as more unconventional tools/methods are sort out... No CB has ever defeated Mr Market... They just postpone the eventual outcome which is more damaging. im really wondering about this move, yields r insane, inflation coming off, i still insist that only a monetization will weaken kes..yea crude cud hit 200/bbl but i think the demand for fuel will be waay lower as money supply is reduced, cost of funding a short is still double digits so i wonder...i think the level at which yields are will lead to some portfolio flows, think about it 1 yr tbill at 22 if u short at 90 ur beak even is 20 percent(assume 22 pct yield on kes 2 on usd), break even is what? 108?...just saying...will kes hit hit 108 within the year? with money supply being more constricted? Um, excuse me, pls, just wondering, when did money supply get constricted? From what I see loans are flowing, as is spending...so, um, this constriction, is it real? Wow! You mean loans are flowing with the neck break lending rates!? Tbills @20%... Something is not adding up... Wait until banks publish, then compare Q2 to Q4...its weird, almost as if the consumer out there isn't affected by these rates... Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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