KE econ having experienced 2 back to back quarters of GDP growth slowdown is technically in a recession. Going forward how will the econ recovery play out in an election year? Will it be a V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recovery? Looking at CBK's and treasury's moves, a U-shaped recovery looks like it. That means I'm looking at 2013 Q2 starting a major bullish run as the GDP expansion recovers out of recession and charges full steam supported by growth esp cheap power & cheap loans as CBK expands M2 supply. A faster successful military mission conclusion in Somali will also add to the bullish momentum (Without election risks I could expect a V-shaped recovery). However, if the elections become spooky, well my expectations will just be wishful thinking. Also note that euroland debt bomb is the big spanner globally. A disorderly breakdown will definite spillover globally.

What say you about your recovery expectations?

http://bit.ly/lTCys -
short video about recession

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-shaped_recession - recession recovery shapes.

Merry Xmas
As for 2012, tighten your seatbelts on spending. Better to be prepared than not...


Update - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pwincsv4E0

@hisah I thought your economics knowledge was pretty strong... But after this fallacy of a topic I cant be too sure any more..

Anyway point of education..

A recession can be considered if a country has undergone two or more quarters of NEGATIVE growth..

Although kenya is experiencing slowing economic growth it is still very much POSITIVE (+3.6%) so no recession here yet...

please review your potentially misleading statements above.

MERRY XMAS WAZUA!!

@youcant its negative year on year growth

@hisah maybe U should go back to Xul

You can that to the bank, Kenya needs a miracle to prevent a recession.