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> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking
stocksmaster
#1 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 12:36:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.

3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
Impunity
#2 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 12:56:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada
stocksmaster wrote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.

3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


Applause
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Insurgent
#3 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:11:05 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/6/2010
Posts: 594
Quote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


@Master of Stocks...Good strategy. What do you think of Mumias?


"One man gives freely, yet gains even more; another withholds unduly, but comes to poverty. A generous man will prosper; he who refreshes others will himself be refreshed." Rev Canon Karanja.

cnn
#4 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:14:13 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
On 1 and 2 taking an exact strategy,on 3 i am not so sure,those WTK directors have their own way of thinking.
lovely2010
#5 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:33:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
Insurgent wrote:
Quote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


@Master of Stocks...Good strategy. What do you think of Mumias?


I think mumias is in my priority list...if its gets lower and with a dividend of .50c...I think its a good deal...in terms of dividend yield.
stocksmaster
#6 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:41:35 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Insurgent wrote:
Quote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


@Master of Stocks...Good strategy. What do you think of Mumias?


Mumias as at June 2011 had an EPS of Ksh 1.26 and a dividend of Ksh 0.50. At todays prevailing price of Ksh 4.70, thats a dividend yield of 10.6%.

However, for Mumias i would only jump in as the dividend yield approaches 15% (target price of below Ksh 3.30).
Reason: Sustainability of the EPS once the sugar industry protection safeguards are eliminated. At a 15% annual dividend return, by the time the safeguards dissapear in 3 years time, i will have recovered almost half of my investment as dividends.The extra 5% is the risk premium.

The ethanol, mineral water,power cogeneration and remaining sugar market should at least assure my investment 8-10% return on investment even if the COMESA sugar imports hits MUMIAS bottom line post 2015.

Check today's Mumias price trend and you will realise that sub Ksh 4 will materialise by Christmas.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
stocksmaster
#7 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 1:58:41 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
cnn wrote:
On 1 and 2 taking an exact strategy,on 3 i am not so sure,those WTK directors have their own way of thinking.


I think i understand the conservative thinking of the Williamson Directors and Management (majority of whom are British). The risk of giving an outsized dividend is on sustainability.They wouldn't want to give a dividend of Ksh 15 only to give Ksh 5 the next year.
In effect, their futuristic approach is to accumulate 'excess profits' as revenue reserves for issuing as dividends in years of scarcity. This ensures some dividend payment even when the company makes a loss (unpredictability of rain fed agriculture).

However, the effect of three successive years of EPS in the Ksh 100 region has created oversized revenue reserves that should now support a > Ksh 15 dividend for the next at least 5 years.

I may be wrong, but i have a feeling that last years Ksh 15 dividend established a new baseline in dividend payment for this company.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
kenmac
#8 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 9:55:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
having followed the advice of @stockmaster on kenolkobil and benefited, am a faithful follower of this advice.
......Ecclesiastes
guru267
#9 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 10:04:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:


I think i understand the conservative thinking of the Williamson Directors and Management (majority of whom are British). The risk of giving an outsized dividend is on sustainability.They wouldn't want to give a dividend of Ksh 15 only to give Ksh 5 the next year.
In effect, their futuristic approach is to accumulate 'excess profits' as revenue reserves for issuing as dividends in years of scarcity. This ensures some dividend payment even when the company makes a loss (unpredictability of rain fed agriculture).

However, the effect of three successive years of EPS in the Ksh 100 region has created oversized revenue reserves that should now support a > Ksh 15 dividend for the next at least 5 years.

I may be wrong, but i have a feeling that last years Ksh 15 dividend established a new baseline in dividend payment for this company.

Happy Hunting.


Knowing the directors I think with an EPS of 140 the 15bob dividend will be maintained with a special dividend of 10-15 included...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
simonkabz
#10 Posted : Friday, December 02, 2011 11:41:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
Keep 'em coming master, keep 'em coming and dnt tire out brother.
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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