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CBK's CBR shocker @ 16.5% - Playing Serious Hard Ball?!

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Scubidu		#121 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 1:21:02 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi		It's your chance to ask the expert questions. Read what he says and question his logic. http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/node/2041 http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/blog/71 “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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josiah33		#122 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 1:38:18 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/27/2011 Posts: 1,777		Mwalimu wrote: Untill we replace 'made in china'(plates, cups, roads, electronics etc) with 'made in kenya' exchange rate remains high true mwalimu.
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tony stark		#123 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2011 5:15:21 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947		Scubidu wrote: tony stark wrote: Why don't they just issue a foreign bond. Whatever our rating currently is he would still be able to get a cheaper rate without killing domestic borrowing and the economy. Even with the greece default cloud hanging over our heads I am sure he would still be able to raise the money because everyone is holding on to cash and the other investments avenues are all very grim. Issue a foreign bond(get you dollars), reduce the CBR(encourage domestic growth) increase import duties on non manufacturing, processed consumables(I know this is not CBK role but should be plan of the strategy, stop listening to world bank or IMF! Never listen to them f***ing devils! It's not easy to do this! Scubidu choosing the easier option is more often than not the wrong option ... in fact nearly always! Why shouldn't Kenya not raise the funds through the bonds market. In fact cut out the middle man because world bank and soon IMF already raise funds through bonds market. We seriously need to grow some balls. I dont care what people say I would rather a CBK governor make the wrong decision thinking it right than let IMF and world bank dictate what to do.
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Scubidu		#124 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 11:29:53 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi		tony stark wrote: Scubidu wrote: tony stark wrote: Why don't they just issue a foreign bond. Whatever our rating currently is he would still be able to get a cheaper rate without killing domestic borrowing and the economy. Even with the greece default cloud hanging over our heads I am sure he would still be able to raise the money because everyone is holding on to cash and the other investments avenues are all very grim. Issue a foreign bond(get you dollars), reduce the CBR(encourage domestic growth) increase import duties on non manufacturing, processed consumables(I know this is not CBK role but should be plan of the strategy, stop listening to world bank or IMF! Never listen to them f***ing devils! It's not easy to do this! Scubidu choosing the easier option is more often than not the wrong option ... in fact nearly always! Why shouldn't Kenya not raise the funds through the bonds market. In fact cut out the middle man because world bank and soon IMF already raise funds through bonds market. We seriously need to grow some balls. I dont care what people say I would rather a CBK governor make the wrong decision thinking it right than let IMF and world bank dictate what to do. You're right. Latest vibe ive heard is that the governor is struggling with domestic borrowing programme to the extent that an increase in VAT is being proposed as a solution. Even at this point CBK can't print money because of IMF programming. The above tax measures seem to be consistent with the way IMF works (see the conclusion of the article in link below). They're between a rock... http://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/art-567716 “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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the deal		#125 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 12:56:17 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		I have said it here before, the IMF is now in charge of Kenya's monetary & fiscal policy and what you will see going forward are nothing but austerity measures, i support the current squeeze...i think we will see one more rate hike from the IMF before year end!
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guru267		#126 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 3:57:57 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		the deal wrote: I have said it here before, the IMF is now in charge of Kenya's monetary & fiscal policy and what you will see going forward are nothing but austerity measures, i support the current squeeze...i think we will see one more rate hike from the IMF before year end! My friend the IMF and world bank that you support have a mandate to destroy emerging economies with conditional loans so as to maintain their country's own exploitational interests... The sooner we realise this the quicker we can tell them to shove their loans up where the sun dont shine.. Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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cnn		#127 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2011 8:27:18 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627		The focus was on infrastructure from 2008 onwards... building it through public spending. Because we failed to do the Eurobond in 2007 (under Kimunya) the only recourse was to fund the current account with IMF funds. Don't you agree?[/quote] It seems GoK wants to go ahead with the Eurobond in the current fiscal year to ease the hard currency crunch,is this the right environment to do it?,will it find takers or at reasonable yields.http://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFL5E7MO3P520111124
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the deal		#128 Posted : Thursday, November 24, 2011 9:44:41 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		3Q 2011 Current Account deficit at 577 Billion Shilling if CBR was not hiked the Shilling could be at 120 to the USD by now
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tony stark		#129 Posted : Thursday, December 01, 2011 12:13:41 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947		Scubidu wrote: tony stark wrote: Scubidu wrote: tony stark wrote: Why don't they just issue a foreign bond. Whatever our rating currently is he would still be able to get a cheaper rate without killing domestic borrowing and the economy. Even with the greece default cloud hanging over our heads I am sure he would still be able to raise the money because everyone is holding on to cash and the other investments avenues are all very grim. Issue a foreign bond(get you dollars), reduce the CBR(encourage domestic growth) increase import duties on non manufacturing, processed consumables(I know this is not CBK role but should be plan of the strategy, stop listening to world bank or IMF! Never listen to them f***ing devils! It's not easy to do this! Scubidu choosing the easier option is more often than not the wrong option ... in fact nearly always! Why shouldn't Kenya not raise the funds through the bonds market. In fact cut out the middle man because world bank and soon IMF already raise funds through bonds market. We seriously need to grow some balls. I dont care what people say I would rather a CBK governor make the wrong decision thinking it right than let IMF and world bank dictate what to do. You're right. Latest vibe ive heard is that the governor is struggling with domestic borrowing programme to the extent that an increase in VAT is being proposed as a solution. Even at this point CBK can't print money because of IMF programming. The above tax measures seem to be consistent with the way IMF works (see the conclusion of the article in link below). They're between a rock... http://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/art-567716 At last Kenya to issue a eurobond They are aiming to raise 500million dollars ha! they should be more ambitious but this is still better than parting our ass for IMF to have their way with.
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mwanahisa		#130 Posted : Thursday, December 01, 2011 7:01:51 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438		the deal wrote: I have said it here before, the IMF is now in charge of Kenya's monetary & fiscal policy and what you will see going forward are nothing but austerity measures, i support the current squeeze...i think we will see one more rate hike from the IMF before year end! Your thoughts were right on point as MPC today raises the CBR by 150 basis points. I will be looking for the full statement for more information. At first glance, it appears MPC is simply matching the increase in inflation. We should then expect them to start the easing cycle with the expected decrease in inflation. However, isn't there a risk that the increase in CBR may itself contribute to an increase in inflation? Talk of the medicine being almost as debilitating as the disease. Wont it kill the patient?
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