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Cde Monomotapa		#2141 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 6:14:24 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964		stocksmaster wrote: youcan'tstopusnow wrote: holycow wrote: http://www.kenolkobil.com/image...%20to%20shareholders.pdf "The two fold strategy of geographical expansion and diversification of the groups business lines has produced above expectations results, contributing strongly to the bottom line" Diversification and Geographical expansion- spreading risk/diversify profitability lines: *At Group Level % of PBT based on 1st Half 2011: • Retail/Resell- 14% • Commercial-7% • Aviation- 17% • Export-14% • Trading Desk-11%. • LPG- 8% • Non Fuel- 5% • Lubes- 4% • F.O & Bitumen – 20% With the above diversification, its clear why Total Kenya problems are not reflected in KenolKobil........Retail/resell of fuel (what we think is the core business of KK) and what is killing Total Kenya due to price regulation accounts for only 14% of group PBT.....Remember this 14% is based on all countries they have retail networks:Kenya,Uganda,Rwanda,Burundi,Tanzania,Zambia and Ethiopia. Assuming 1/3 of this retail business is attributable to Kenya (Check how the 400 fuel stations are geographically distributed per country), then that means the impact of price control introduced in Kenyalast year affects about only (1/3 x 14%) ie 5% of the PBT of the group. This is the power of business diversification both in terms of regions (reduces country specific risk) and products. In fact, based on the above breakdown, KK derives 1/5th of its PBT from bitumen!! Happy Hunting. Cheers mate!!
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hisah		#2142 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 7:30:43 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		[quote=the deal]A FY EPS of Sh2.3-2.5 @hisah will this news save this stock from the capitulation that started at 12 bob http://contrarianinvesti...-earnings-guidance.html[/quote] In a bear market good news is bad news and bad news is bad news. The opposite applies to the bull. It's all about Mr Market's psychology. For KK as stated before money was made @12. That exit volume still stands. The KK fundamentals look rosy, but that exit volume puts across a lot of questions. Why isn't it floating like agri stocks or jubilee? Update - @deal are u aware of the VSA technique? When I scoped equity in April & saw a possibility of 20/- being hit, I was almost slaughtered by @mukiha. It also works nicely in forex. @kizee should now understand why USDKES zoomed past 90. Smart money (the house aka Mr Market) always plays games against expectations and against the crowd http://www.informedtrade...me-spread-analysis.html $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Simplified		#2143 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 10:46:39 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/26/2009 Posts: 67 Location: Pare pare		Hey guys,torn between kk @ 9.50 and kcb @ 15.10. With the threat of mass loan defaults hanging,is it advisable to go for the banks.... Any advice? Hug the bear....ride the bull.....di$mount!!!
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mwekez@ji		#2144 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:21:26 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		stocksmaster wrote: youcan'tstopusnow wrote: holycow wrote: http://www.kenolkobil.com/image...%20to%20shareholders.pdf "The two fold strategy of geographical expansion and diversification of the groups business lines has produced above expectations results, contributing strongly to the bottom line" Diversification and Geographical expansion- spreading risk/diversify profitability lines: *At Group Level % of PBT based on 1st Half 2011: • Retail/Resell- 14% • Commercial-7% • Aviation- 17% • Export-14% • Trading Desk-11%. • LPG- 8% • Non Fuel- 5% • Lubes- 4% • F.O & Bitumen – 20% With the above diversification, its clear why Total Kenya problems are not reflected in KenolKobil........Retail/resell of fuel (what we think is the core business of KK) and what is killing Total Kenya due to price regulation accounts for only 14% of group PBT.....Remember this 14% is based on all countries they have retail networks:Kenya,Uganda,Rwanda,Burundi,Tanzania,Zambia and Ethiopia. Assuming 1/3 of this retail business is attributable to Kenya (Check how the 400 fuel stations are geographically distributed per country), then that means the impact of price control introduced in Kenyalast year affects about only (1/3 x 14%) ie 5% of the PBT of the group. This is the power of business diversification both in terms of regions (reduces country specific risk) and products. In fact, based on the above breakdown, KK derives 1/5th of its PBT from bitumen!! Happy Hunting.
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cnn		#2145 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:10:36 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627		[quote=VituVingiSana]Kenyans... Firms that don't give info (& minimal info) at the last minute... Some folks complain! Firms like KK which gives S/holders info on a regular basis... Some folks complain! I am happy to get REGULAR updates from KK. I am very happy to hear the profits are expected to be in line with the projections. What will be even better is if the profits meet the US$ targets coz that is more KShs for me!!! I have a strong hunch that KK's market share (in Kenya) will be the highest it has ever been in 2011... PIEA data shows KK petroleum market share in Kenya is at 23.4 %in September compared to 24% in June,Total has seen its share up to 23.7% (effectively taking over the top spot from KK) .The small players have seen a surge in their share from 16% to 24%.(how?).Overall market share led by Kenol at 21.3% to Total's 19.7%.
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cnn		#2146 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:13:25 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627		jerry wrote: @Impunity. The ALL TIME LOW stands at 8.40! Anyhow I'm also waiting at 8! Not true..i have a lot purchased @ 5.9 in 09.
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sparkly		#2147 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:28:31 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi		cnn wrote: jerry wrote: @Impunity. The ALL TIME LOW stands at 8.40! Anyhow I'm also waiting at 8! Not true..i have a lot purchased @ 5.9 in 09. it had gone as low as 45 before the split. I remember, i almost got slaughtered when i advised BUY in the old SK. Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana		#2148 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:34:31 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,363 Location: Nairobi		@cnn - I am not sure how PIEA does the calcs or what the lag is... I need to look at the data... I notice KK (& other majors) have stopped selling kerosene in many stations... I wonder if Kerosene is counted as 'fuel' sales? The reason I think KK's market share will increase in 4Q 2011 (or even during 3Q 2011) was Deal Poa. I am sure many folks would rather fill up at KK to save the KShs 2-5 per litre! Also the narrow margins for many retailers will kill off sales as cashflow problems hit the smaller firms... The 24% (or higher) interest rates are another nail in the coffin! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#2149 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:38:06 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,363 Location: Nairobi		http://www.petroleum.co....amp;id=56&Itemid=59 I am sure Nairobi is the largest market for fuel followed by RV then Coast then Central... Branded stations dominate Nairobi & have a good showing in RV too... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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cnn		#2150 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:39:55 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627		http://www.petroleum.co....&id=50&Itemid=51
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